Stocks, LEAPS. Married with children...

Česká republika
Joined March 2022
$IREN update, SL hunt behind us. I still think there's a high chance of another deeper pullback. But we're due some positive news about Horizon in few days. So I'm holding my LEAPS bought under $36 (I took a loan, lol) till we get to $50 or I'll double down if it drops first.
$IREN yeah, it's magic. I really don't understand people fading TA.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Right now @SemiAnalysis_ has a pseudo-monopoly on tracking the AI Buildout after buying out @citrini. I'm looking forward to @OrnnExchange and @silicondata to provide independent research to keep the analysis honest. Ornn Exchange I had a call with @OrnnExchange and they have satellite images tracking 500 sites and having independent research from them would be great. @wayne_nelmz, @gpujaff, @CharlieSheiner. They also have transaction data and I can affirmatively say GPU prices are still going up. Silicon Exchange @stevehou heads research at @silicondata and they also track technology development trends have have transaction data for GPU prices.
SemiAnalysis: Datacenters SemiAnalysis sees 51.2GW of datacenter capacity being added in 2027. "Year-to-date, slightly under USD 1T of binding / non-cancellable datacenter leases have been signed – that’s key to supporting our aggressive 2027-28 forecast." SemiAnalysis claims Brad Gerstner's @altcap claim of only 25GW being built in 2027 is incorrect, based on satellite images showing >24GW of datacenters in advanced stage of construction, all to be delivered in 2027.
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Blackwell Ultra (B300) GPU rental prices up 17 consecutive days to a new all-time high, according to Compute Desk's index of verified transactions from U.S. neoclouds.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Neuvěřitelné nesmysly. Trump - nejvyšší americký velitel - buď absolutně netuší, o čem mluví, nebo totálně lže. Nevím, co je horší. Ukrajina dostala za Bidena od USA jen něco přes 600 střel Patriot. USA vystřílely za TŘI DNY války s Íránem 800 střel Patriot. Ukrajina nedostala od USA ANI JEDNU střelu Tomahawk. USA použily proti Íránu přes 1000 střel Tomahawk a vyčerpaly třetinu až čtvrtinu všech svých zásob. Toto množství bude doplňovat dlouhé roky, vyrábí se zatím jen kolem stovky střel za rok.
Trump: we are running low on ammo not because of my war on Iran but because Biden gave “massive amounts” of Tomahawks to Ukraine. The U.S. didn’t supply a single Tomahawk to Ukraine.
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Alea iacta est. Bought more. Now it's $23 as next level. Bottom is near, I'm sure🤣🤣🤣. $IREN
$IREN update, I've bought more Jan'29 $90c yesterday, now I'm watching +-$26 as another level. I've sold 20% of my $AMD position, 10% of $TSLA and 6% of $PLTR. On top of that I've closed $SKHY, $ASTS and $ENPH. To fund further investment in LEAPS. Might be for Jan'28 too, exit -$49.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
U.S. ECONOMIC DATA — OCTOBER 15, 2026 INFLATION — SEPTEMBER PPI 🔸 Headline PPI MoM: +1.3% (Est. +0.6%) 🔸 Headline PPI YoY: +6.3% (Est. +5.4%) 🔸 Core PPI MoM: +0.7% (Est. +0.3%) 🔸 Core PPI YoY: +5.0% (Est. +4.4%) 🔸 PPI Ex-Food, Energy & Trade: +0.5% MoM, +5.0% YoY 🔸 Energy Prices: +10.8% 🔸 Food Prices: +1.2% 🔸 Goods Prices: +2.6% 🔸 Services Prices: +0.8% 🔸 Trade Services: +1.4% CONSUMER SPENDING — SEPTEMBER 🔸 Retail Sales: +0.8% MoM (Est. +0.3%) 🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos: +0.9% (Est. +0.5%) 🔸 Retail Sales Ex-Autos & Gas: +0.2% 🔸 Retail Sales Control Group: +0.1% 🔸 August Retail Sales: Revised to +1.1% 🔸 August Ex-Autos: Revised to +1.3% 🔸 August Control Group: +1.2% LABOR MARKET 🔸 Initial Jobless Claims: 199K (Est. 200K; Prior 198K, revised from 197K) 🔸 Continuing Claims: 1.710M (Prior 1.714M, revised from 1.716M) MANUFACTURING — OCTOBER 🔸 NY Empire State Index: 25.5 (Prior 7.6) 🔸 NY Prices Paid: 59.5 (Prior 63.1) 🔸 NY New Orders: 23.2 (Prior 2.0) 🔸 NY Employment: 10.3 (Prior 10.6) 🔸 Philadelphia Fed Index: 20.9 (Est. 28.0) 🔸 Philadelphia Prices Paid: 43.2 (Prior 48.6) THE KEY TAKEAWAY: Producer inflation significantly exceeded expectations, consumer spending remained strong, and jobless claims stayed low — reinforcing concerns that the Fed may need to tighten monetary policy further.
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$IREN update, I've bought more Jan'29 $90c yesterday, now I'm watching +-$26 as another level. I've sold 20% of my $AMD position, 10% of $TSLA and 6% of $PLTR. On top of that I've closed $SKHY, $ASTS and $ENPH. To fund further investment in LEAPS. Might be for Jan'28 too, exit -$49.
$36 hit, so I've added $IREN Jan'27 $55c. If there's a drop to $32 next week, I'll close my +570% $AMD position, and I'll buy more Jan'28 / Jan'29 LEAPS.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Today I will be educating you with some construction progress at $IREN sites in Texas. Additionally, I will try to explain why the current strategy is the optimal one, and attempt to clarify some misunderstandings around the company and its trajectory.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
$IREN both internal & external structure are still bullish... but we need to hold $35 swing low Things will get dicey if that level breaks Fingers crossed for the bulls 🤞
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It's so over. In Czechia the beer consumption per capita is falling like a brick.
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$36 hit, so I've added $IREN Jan'27 $55c. If there's a drop to $32 next week, I'll close my +570% $AMD position, and I'll buy more Jan'28 / Jan'29 LEAPS.
I bought $IREN Jan'29 $90c today. For 13. That's a steal imho. I'm not saying it won't get cheaper😬. Currently at the support, not the strongest one but still. Another area where I'll be looking to buy more is the trendline retest around $36. $32 and $26 worth noting too🙃.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
$IREN: Addressing the Semi-Analysis FUD on Reliability What's the Issue? I heard of these issue in August and the only customers that $IREN has had long enough to report "multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere" are FireworksAI and TogetherAI at Prince George. Mackenzie is undergoing GPU commissioning as we speak (1) so I don't know why @SemiAnalysis_ mentions Mackenzie having customer problems already when there are no customers there yet. What @dylan522p says is true but convinently omitting critical industry context makes this a cleverly disguised Semi-Hit-Piece. I had heard that TogetherAI filed this complaint to IREN and Dylan was able to obtain the information from TogetherAI's CEO. I was also told that Dylan is personal friends with TogetherAI's CEO and are from the same region in India and speak the same Indian dialect which is how Dylan is able to get the info. I will show that these are industry wide problems and the affected customers renewed despite these issues. First Industry Fact First, the most important fact that @SemiAnalysis_ conveniently leaves out is that on August 27, 2026, it was confirmed that “Together AI and Fireworks AI have both renewed and expanded” (2). Despite all these problems, why did TogetherAI and FireworksAI renew? Let's look at the rest of the industry facts. Second Industry Fact Second, I will address the most alarming sounding issue: multi-day power outages. Down-time happens to everyone in the industry. @SemiAnalysis_ Platinum Cloud, $NBIS, had a outrage spanning August 19-August 20, 2026 (3). It's not narrated by SemiAnalysis in hit piece voice but the results are similar: "a storm-related event affected the building of the data center facility hosting the us-central1 region, taking the facility’s building management system offline and shutting down the chilled-water cooling loop. With active cooling lost, the data halls overheated within roughly two hours, and servers, network switches and rack power systems began shutting down on thermal protection. This caused a region-wide disruption of us-central1 services: GPU and CPU compute, external network connectivity for virtual machines, object and block storage, Managed Kubernetes, Token Factory, managed platform services, and the regional API and console endpoints" (3). "Storm-related event" makes NBIS outrage explained. SemiAnalysis's biggest bias is that they conveniently leave out the reason for IREN's outraged: BC Hydro's grid had a brown out. That's why TogetherAI renewed, not because they were okay with unexplained, random multi-day power outrages. At the time, IREN did not have enough backup generators in BC since generators produce significantly more pollution than a hydro powered grid and are hard to obtain licenses for. By March, IREN was able to obtain license to put generators for all of PG and multi-day power outrages will no longer be a problem. IREN has designed Childress and SW1 with full N+1 backup power since MSFT which requires a higher uptime which is why SemiAnalysis says those sites "look much better". Third Industry Fact Third, let's address the rest accusations: "network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere". Using fancy technical terms without explaining them is a hallmark of a hit piece, so I'll give definitions. Link flaps means a network connection is going in and out. XID is an error code logged and reported by Nvidia GPUs. Link flaps are common: SemiAnalysis Platinum Cloud $CRWV (4), Silver Cloud Lambda (5), $MSFT (6) all had 2hr15m (4), 5hr14m (5), 4h57m (6) network out rages due to link flaps this year. Why? Because when optical networking links and transceivers collect dust particles the connection can be interrupted. SemiAnalysis conveniently uses "air quality controls" to make it sound even more scary. "XIDs everywhere" sounds scary too but they have a much larger frequency on GPUs than other compute types. $META had a paper showing that they had 419 XIDs in 54 days on their infrastructure. No other AI Cloud is this transparent about reporting problems but $META blog is one of the most honest tech blogs out there bcause META culture is "Move Fast and Break Things". Network upgrades or other control/management plane upgrades do cause problem from time to time. AWS had a DynamoDB DNS defect (8) and GCP had a policy update trigger crashes globally (9). Storage outrage is the most outrageous accusation as those are the most common across both GPU and CPU Clouds. In a completely separate incident from the storm-incident, NBIS had a storage outrage in 2025: "we had an outage of the S3 service in the eu-north1 region triggered by a steady increase of migration traffic accompanied by unexpected behavior of the program" (10). Storage downtime are not typically reported these days but in the past generation, they use to more commonly reported by GCP (11), Azure (12), AWS (13). Storage is check pointed and there is often none to very little data loss. Managed Services Don't know why SemiAnalysis has such strong shade on "Managed Services". It's a twist of the facts. IREN has no managed services but Mirantis does. Mirantis provides managed services with 99.99% uptime SLA (15) to customers like Adobe, Cornell University, PayPal, MetLife Insurance, Royal Bank of Canada (14). With the Mirantis acquisition closed, I don't know why SemiAnalysis says that IREN advertisement of managed services is misleading, NBIS is advertising the results of their acquisitions on full blast. Conclusion @SemiAnalysis_ gives a master piece lesson on how to write FUD pieces without straight up lying but cleverly crafting context. I unravel their knots for you.
IREN continues to come up in our conversations with neocloud customers, and usually for the wrong reasons. In Prince George and Mackenzie in Northern BC, Canada, we’ve heard the stories: multi-day power outages, network upgrades, storage failures, air quality controls leading to link flaps, XIDs everywhere. The #1 worst site in the industry, according to users. And we are some of their users, as we’ve gotten to test IREN GPUs from multiple providers that resell their capacity. A lot of our users we are hearing from who aren’t having a good time aren’t renting from IREN resellers, but from IREN themselves. (1/3)🧵
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
They should have made this into a film 🤣🤣. I don't usually laugh at kids crying however 🤭. Absolutely hilarious.... i can't believe how relaxed she was.... not like the two lads 😬🤣🤣
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Opportunities everywhere. I've sold some $WULF shares and added some Jun'27 $25c. And $CIFR. I've bought Jan'27 $20c and Jan'28 $25c.
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I bought $IREN Jan'29 $90c today. For 13. That's a steal imho. I'm not saying it won't get cheaper😬. Currently at the support, not the strongest one but still. Another area where I'll be looking to buy more is the trendline retest around $36. $32 and $26 worth noting too🙃.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
I think you are oversimplifying the concept of “spot” rates for leasing. Generally, tenants are very interested in powered shells available in the near-term and become less interested in ones available further into the future. This relative level of interest is reflected in what they are willing to pay in rent. Leases that are being signed and announced now are typically for sites available 12-18 months out, and they are being signed at the highest rates we have seen. But if you ask a hyperscaler about what they would commit to pay right now for a long-term lease for a site available in 2030+ (if they would even be interested now), they might offer to pay 7-8% YOC. At those levels, we would not commit to a lease and will wait if we have such a site available. The binding commitment we received here is for a lease starting 10 years from now at a rate in-line with today’s elevated market rates for powered shells available in the near-term from a very large and successful leading AI lab. This is a big deal and evidence of a long-term sustained demand environment in my opinion. I saw a few other questions along the lines of “Why sign now? Why not wait?” Presumably this logic is based on the idea that we should just wait 8.5 years until interest will be higher. My answer is that we have never seen interest at today’s elevated rates for a lease starting that far in the future and it provides an excellent projected IRR on our investment. Also, if we follow that advice, why should we ever sign a lease at all? Just keep waiting for infinitely higher lease rates. I don’t believe that is a winning strategy. Lastly, keep in mind that headline lease rates don’t tell the full story in an inflationary environment with fast-changing design and engineering standards. You need to consider other elements that can control your costs and financing risks. We are focused on maximizing a return on our investment while managing risks. (Note that this is also why revenue comparisons with neoclouds are somewhat irrelevant—they have a completely different cost and risk structure)
My initial reaction to the $cifr Barber Lake extension is neutral for the following reasons: 1) Yes, @rftylerpage locks in $5.2B of incremental revenues but the press release says consistent with initial terms which simply means the increase comes primarily from lease escalators that offset inflation in Year 11-20 2) $cifr absorbs first $360m of cost overruns 3) @fluidstack likely supporting @AnthropicAI if I had to guess but does that deteriorate the credit quality? So in summary, more predictable cash flows but likely cost overruns and my main question is the following to Tyler: Why is the company leasing out arguably its best inference property below current market pricing when you consider the moratoriums and construction delays that have increased spot rates?
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Issues with ClusterMax 3.0 1. $ORCL had a huge security breach today (1) and is somehow ranked above AWS and Azure. 2. Firmus AI has a grand total 32 racks / 256 GPU H200s (2) generating 32m ARR and is a better AI cloud than AWS. 3. Cursor’s Composer Model was trained on FireworksAI (3), ChatGPT was trained on Azure, and Claude trained on AWS. None of these are apparently top AI Clouds. None of the top AI models are from “top AI clouds”. Hmm… ClusterMax is clearly pay to rank ad. (1) xitter.cf/rdd147/status/21026490… (2) firmus.co/newsroom/ai-singap… - site taken down but you can get the archived info from ChatGPT (3) cursor.com/blog/composer-2-t… (list FireworksAI and Colfax as collaborators)
ClusterMAX 3.0 is here! ClusterMAX 3.0 debuts with a comprehensive review of the neocloud industry, covering 77 providers. We increase our market view to cover 323 providers, up from 209 in ClusterMAX 2.0, 169 in ClusterMAX 1.0, and 124 in the original AI Neocloud Playbook and Anatomy article. We have now interviewed well over 200 end users of neoclouds as part of this research. We update our itemized list of criteria across 10 categories, and update our direct descriptions of our expectations for Slurm, Kubernetes, Standalone Machines, Monitoring Dashboards, and Health Checks. All of this content is live on our website. We encourage providers to use these lists when developing their offerings. We still consider these lists as an amalgamation of our experience interviewing end users, making them representative of the features that end users expect from their cloud providers. Nebius joins CoreWeave in the Platinum tier. While CoreWeave still sets the technical bar for others to follow, Nebius is now established as a provider that consistently commands a premium pricing over others. Strong business decisions by Nebius have put them in a position to serve an entire class of neolabs at seller’s prices. Google Cloud joins Oracle in the Gold tier. Azure moves to Silver, Fluidstack moves to Unavailable, and Crusoe drops to Bronze. Lambda, Firmus and TensorWave remain in Silver, while GMI moves up to Silver from Bronze. Many companies drop from Silver (or Gold) to Bronze or lower. We raise the bar this round as only 19 neoclouds globally achieve a Medallion rating. We establish a tier between Bronze and Underperforming: the Participation Ribbon tier. 15 providers join this rating, which more accurately describes our opinion that they do the bare minimum to get by.
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
The Funniest Thing about ClusterMax 3.0 Much of X only knows like ~5 of the names on ClusterMax 3.0. I know a few more of them so I can point out how ridiculous some of these rankings are. I used VastAI for my masters project because they are by far the lowest price. VastAI is a distributed GPU hosting network with a thin veil software support. Anyone can apply and put their GPUs on VastAI (1). Some of these GPUs are literally hosted in people's basements. Literally, if you put up their listings for RTX 5090, the top four recommended listings are GPUs hosted in Vietnam, Taiwan, Nebraska, and Estonia (2). Now @SemiAnalysis_ ranks VastAI above $IREN and one tier below AWS. $CRWV and $NBIS are two tiers above AWS. This means I can plug in GPUs in my bedroom and be closer to AWS than AWS is to $CRWV and $NBIS on ClusterMax rankings. Hey but you know what? My home has a Generac Generator and Cisco CW9300 Enterprise Grade Switch. I'm now a tier above $IREN and only one grade below AWS.
ClusterMAX 3.0 is here! ClusterMAX 3.0 debuts with a comprehensive review of the neocloud industry, covering 77 providers. We increase our market view to cover 323 providers, up from 209 in ClusterMAX 2.0, 169 in ClusterMAX 1.0, and 124 in the original AI Neocloud Playbook and Anatomy article. We have now interviewed well over 200 end users of neoclouds as part of this research. We update our itemized list of criteria across 10 categories, and update our direct descriptions of our expectations for Slurm, Kubernetes, Standalone Machines, Monitoring Dashboards, and Health Checks. All of this content is live on our website. We encourage providers to use these lists when developing their offerings. We still consider these lists as an amalgamation of our experience interviewing end users, making them representative of the features that end users expect from their cloud providers. Nebius joins CoreWeave in the Platinum tier. While CoreWeave still sets the technical bar for others to follow, Nebius is now established as a provider that consistently commands a premium pricing over others. Strong business decisions by Nebius have put them in a position to serve an entire class of neolabs at seller’s prices. Google Cloud joins Oracle in the Gold tier. Azure moves to Silver, Fluidstack moves to Unavailable, and Crusoe drops to Bronze. Lambda, Firmus and TensorWave remain in Silver, while GMI moves up to Silver from Bronze. Many companies drop from Silver (or Gold) to Bronze or lower. We raise the bar this round as only 19 neoclouds globally achieve a Medallion rating. We establish a tier between Bronze and Underperforming: the Participation Ribbon tier. 15 providers join this rating, which more accurately describes our opinion that they do the bare minimum to get by.
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$NUAI liquidity swept during pre-market, I wouldn't overthink it too much here, flip trendline from R to S and it's $9.45 hunt... Wonder if anyone has added below $5.50👀...
$NUAI getting close. If you have no exposure, start nibbling. Otherwise buy under $5.50 if you believe in the company ofc....
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Ludvík Stichenwirth retweeted
Prediction: within 12 months, top three models will be open source. Economic winners will be the American clouds that serve them: Nebius Iren Baseten Together Fireworks
Looks like today may be a record day for token volume % of open models on Vercel AI Gateway: 🟦 Open 78.4% 🟨 Closed 21.6% While spend 💲 usually tells a different story, #3 and #4 today are Moonshot AI & DeepSeek. Adding Z⁠.ai, their combined spend surpasses OpenAI (#2). (Do note that's the spend for inference of the model across providers (mostly in the US), not revenue going directly to the open weight labs.)
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