Great thread. Take inexplicable decision-making, degraded infrastructure, and outsourced industrial capacity and you get this: The Royal Navy’s escort fleet stands at roughly eleven hulls today versus more than fifty destroyers and frigates in 1990.
The Royal Navy in October 2026: A Paradox of Ambition and Decline
Views my own, comments, corrections and strong debate welcome.
1/25 The Royal Navy of late 2026 is a force of extremes. It operates two large aircraft carriers that are notionally operational, a small number of highly sophisticated Type 45 destroyers and Astute-class attack submarines, and a nuclear deterrent that has never broken Continuous At-Sea Deterrence. At the same time, the surface and subsurface fleets required to protect those carriers, sustain the deterrent and meet routine tasking are thinner, older and less available than at any point since 1945.
This is not the result of a single review or a sudden funding cut. It is the cumulative outcome of decisions stretching back to the late 1970s, accelerated by the 1998 Strategic Defence Review and deepened by the 2010 Strategic Defence and Security Review.
The Royal Navy has repeatedly chosen exquisite individual platforms over the numbers needed to keep them at sea, deferred hard choices on infrastructure, and operated under a culture in which responsibility is diffused until it disappears.
I like this kind of thinking, but I would quadruple and diversify the drone defense assets.
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
By 1966, North Vietnam's Soviet-built SA-2 surface-to-air missiles were knocking American jets out of the sky, and nobody knew exactly how they worked.
The big mystery was the guidance signal: the radio commands that steered each missile to its target. If the US could capture that signal, it could learn to jam it. But the only way to record it was to be on the receiving end of a missile.
No pilot was going to volunteer for that.
So on February 13, 1966, the Air Force sent a Ryan Firebee, an unmanned drone packed with electronic monitors, on a one-way mission over North Vietnam. Its job was to get shot down.
It worked exactly as planned. North Vietnamese radar locked onto the drone and fired a missile. In the seconds before it was destroyed, the Firebee captured the missile's long-mysterious command signals and beamed the data back to a DC-130 mothership flying nearby.
That one sacrificed drone gave the United States the information it needed to start jamming the SA-2.
It was one of the first times a drone did a job that would have meant certain death for a human pilot.
UK F-35B Lightning Force: Ambition, Compromise and the Realities of Fifth-Generation Sustainment
Views my own, corrections and comments welcome. This thread is an update on my previous F-35B threads.
1/25 Today (12 October 2026) the United Kingdom operates 47 Lockheed Martin F-35B Lightning II STOVL aircraft. The final airframes of the initial procurement phase arrived at RAF Marham in May. Full Operating Capability for this first tranche was declared in November 2025 after Operation Highmast. Both Queen Elizabeth-class carriers are operational. HMS Queen Elizabeth has been at sea and recently in Belfast without embarked F-35Bs, consistent with her work-up as NATO Allied Response Force command ship. HMS Prince of Wales has embarked substantial numbers for Highmast and exercises such as Ramstein Flag 26.
These milestones conceal deeper constraints. Availability has remained low. Analyses indicate that only around 30 per cent of the UK-based fleet may be flyable on a typical day, equating to roughly ten aircraft. Only 13 of the 47 jets have reached the Technology Refresh 3 hardware standard that enables Block 4 upgrades. Full combat certification of TR-3 is not expected before 2027. UK weapons such as Meteor and SPEAR 3 remain years from operational integration. The force still relies on AIM-120 AMRAAM and Paveway IV, with an interim Small Diameter Bomb II purchase. Organic AEW depends on Crowsnest, scheduled for withdrawal at the end of 2029 without a funded replacement. No dedicated organic air-to-air refuelling exists for the carriers.
This thread attempts to examine how the UK arrived at the F-35B, the protracted path into service, the dilution of requirements that permitted FOC, and the systemic challenges of sustaining a fifth-generation aircraft.
In Latin America, Africa, and the Middle East, we are seeing early drone warfare. I would equate this to where Ukraine and Russia were in 2023. The diffusion of drone technology and tactics will increase, particularly whenever the Russo-Ukraine war ends. I doubt that we are prepared.
One thing that is becoming more common is “PMC” type and drone companies hiring foreigners who did drones in Ukraine for work. The main problem with that, is that anyone can learn to fly a drone in 14-21 days. Give them 6 weeks and they’ll be hitting targets. What they don’t learn in-depth typically is the tactics behind drones (especially for the 6 monthers) or get a good grasp on signals/frequency and all the overly nerdy shit involved in that realm.
Not understanding frequencies and drone tactics in general will create a lot of scenarios such as this as outside of the Ukrainian war, front areas are not saturated with signals and hundreds of drones flying around so it’s much more easy to pinpoint launch positions and also signal locations.
“One of the sources who works for Congo's government said that Rwandan forces backing the M23 rebels may have surprised them by tracking a drone used for surveillance operations to their location.”
reuters.com/world/africa/eri…
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
USS Cape St. George (CG 71) Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser coming into San Francisco in the Parade of Ships during Fleet Week 2026 - October 9, 2026 SRC: dvidshub.net
Yes!
Replying to @johnkonrad
How about we get out of the game of naming carriers for presidents and go back to tradition.
Saratoga, Lexington, Ranger, Hornet and Yorktown are all available.
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
It is astounding that it took Epic Fury to really drive in and elevate the importance of air base defense (point defense). As if its growing importance wasn't blatantly obvious long beforehand.
Air Force Leaders Elevate Point Defense as a Key Air Warfare Mission
airandspaceforces.com/air-fo…
If you want to learn more about German Zugkraftwagen I just reviewed a great little book about them:
globeatwar.com/review/german…
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
The Vought F7U Cutlass stood out for its radical, space-age design, developed in the 1940s well ahead of its time. Despite its striking looks, the aircraft was plagued with reliability and performance issues throughout its service life. These are a few surviving color clips of the Cutlass from the archives.
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
German-made 8.8cm Flak 36 serving with the Slovak Rapid Division engaging Soviet targets on the ground on the Eastern Front near Rostov in the Summer of 1942
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
View from the rear seat of a Junkers Ju 87 Stuka as Luftwaffe dive bombers attack British positions in North Africa in 1942
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
🇺🇲 Good shot showing a U.S. Air Force F-16CM single-seat, single-engine multirole fighter over the USCENTCOM area of responsibility, Sep. 24, 2026. Visible stores include (from left to right):
- AIM-120D AMRAAM
- AIM-9M-9 Sidewinder
- BRU-61/A smart pneumatic carriage system with four GBU-39/B SDBs
- 370-gal wing tank
- LITENING ATP
- 370-gal wing tank
- Two LAU-131A/A Extended Length Launchers, each loaded with seven AGR-20 series APKWS II guided rockets
- AIM-9X-2 Sidewinder
- AIM-120C-7 AMRAAM
(📸/USAF photo by Tech. Sgt. Tiffany A. Emery)
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
Those AN/ names on radios and radars are a code.
AN/ = joint electronics system
Then three letters:
Where it lives + what kind of gear + what it does + number
AN/PRC-152
AN/APG-81
AN/SPY-6
AN/SLQ-32
Let's decode below. 👇
Between the movie and TV show Blue Thunder and then Airwolf all coming in a 2-year period I had attack helicopters imprinted on me as a kid. Ever since, it doesn't matter who's attack helicopter or what the ongoing debate about their current utility is - they're still cool.
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
Barely two metres high. The Jagdpanzer 38 at the Bastogne War Museum stands lower than a man, which is the whole point of the design.
Built on the chassis of an obsolete Czech light tank, it carried a 75 mm gun behind sloped armour and was meant to be missed until it fired. Kokott's 26th Volksgrenadier Division brought 14 of them to Bastogne.
On Christmas morning 1944 they sat on the ridge between Rouette and Champs, covering the 77th Grenadier Regiment's attack, until observers from A Company, 502nd Parachute Infantry spotted them. Twenty-two rounds from the 377th Parachute Field Artillery drove them back behind the hill. Four P-47s kept them there. The crews rarely called it Hetzer; that name stuck after the war.
This one never saw the Ardennes. It is a Swiss G13, one of 158 built by Škoda after 1945 for the Swiss army, which kept them in service into the 1970s. Most Hetzers in museums today are Swiss.
Steven D Mercatante retweeted
Freedom-class littoral combat ships awaiting disposition at Naval Inactive Ship Maintenance Facility (NISMF) in Philadelphia - September 20, 2026
- USS Milwaukee (LCS 5) commissioned 2015
- USS Detroit (LCS 7) commissioned 2016
- USS Little Rock (LCS 9) commissioned 2017
- USS Sioux City (LCS 11) commissioned 2018
SRC: WarshipCam
Just like MBT's, artillery isn't going anywhere in it's importance on the modern battlefield - regardless of drones.
🇺🇦 Some highlights from a recent interview with Lt. Col. Vitalii Korniienko, commander of 7th Artillery Brigade "Gregit".
- Artillery systems can only be moved into position safely after interceptor UAS crews have systematically taken down the Russian recon UAV in the area.
- A large amount of the targets presented by the RUAF currently presented on the battlefield are not worth an artillery fire mission, which led to the prevalence of cheaper fires options like FPVs.
- Despite that, artillery cannot be abandoned, as there are things that drones can simply not do. Weather conditions and EW are ever prevalent obstacles that a 155mm shell simply does not care about.
- The brigade primarily works at a depth of about 10km from the forward line of troops (FLOT).
- The turn eround time for repairing a Bohdana family howitzer is measured in days rather than weeks or months, as can happen with Western donated systems.
- The ballistic radar that is appearing on recent production 2S22 is a great help in correcting firing angles between different propelant types, as the range difference between them is often big enough that it is not feasible to correctly identify shell impacts from recon drone feeds.
- Korniienko personally requested that his brigade receive 2P22 Bohdana-BG, as these towed guns are much smaller, making them easier to conceal. Simultaneously, they are also harder to destroy with drones than a 2S22.
- Marta, having a smaller build and shorter barrel, is a better fit for this war, as it is easier to conceal. The reduction in range by 3-4km is a worthwhile trade-off.
- Focussing solely on longer-range Ammunition is a bad idea, as they come with their own drawbacks, like increased barrel wear and reduction in ammunition availability. A mix of 40% shorter and 60% longer ranged shells seems optimal.
- Firing longer-range shells makes it easier to be spotted through the increased thermal signature caused by larger and more powerful propellant charges.
- Shells sourced from Asian manufacturers seem to be produced to a much lower QA standard than western or domestic ones. Shell weights can vary up to a kilogram from the manufacturer spec, and there have been several recorded catastrophic failures with shells from one manufacturer in particular.
- While working in the Serebryanka direction, Russians being shells by 105mm guns reported that they were under mortar fire and had their recon UAV look for those in positions 4-6km away from the actual gun.
- 105mm guns, like the L119, are lightweight, easy to conceal, and move while producing almost no thermal signature when firing. This makes them useful in this war.
- Korniienko would like to continue the development of 203mm systems, as he states that 2S7 Pions are capable of penetrating two floors of a building or a deeper dugout position.
- Korniienko Advocates for starting development on a fully overhauled version of the Bohdana so as not to run into a situation in a couple of years where the guns have become too outdated to properly operate.
oboronka.mezha.ua/chi-vizhiv…
This coupled with projectile based point defense is exactly the kind of close in layering needed.
France’s Modular Rampart Point Defense Launcher Has Gone To Sea
The launcher that can fire laser-guided rockets, small missiles, and more has emerged on a Mistral class amphibious assault ship.
twz.com/sea/frances-modular-…



























