DM rates // FX. Opinions my own and do not reflect my employer's position.
Hong Kong
Joined June 2015
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Stephen Spratt retweeted
Australia’s 60 minutes has released a preview of this Sunday’s interview with RBA Assistant Governor (Economic) Sarah Hunter. The interview was pre-recorded on 21 October 2026.
The programme is titled “Rate rise reckoning”. #AusPol for @Scutty
youtube.com/watch?v=EcFDIx0z…
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Which is another way to say that the Fed isn't anticipated to do enough to meaningfully slow economic activity.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
The Fed has overstated its role in achieving price stability and understated the role of globalization in creating elastic supply. In effect, the Fed had it easy for more that two decades, and that lulled it into a false sense of confidence
Stephen Spratt retweeted
One of the street's fav trades paying off. 5y swap spreads at the widest level since earlier this year
Stephen Spratt retweeted
“A Japanese government official said that if Japan did not deliver the rate hike being sought by the United States, the issue could develop into a diplomatic problem.”
mainichi.jp/articles/2026091…
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Had dinner with a very smart CIO recently everyone and their mother is in this trade.
BIS review says as bonds have become "cheap" vs swap, RV funds have been happy to step in.
US Treasury ASW longs (long bond vs swap) have risen from $100bn to $300bn in the past year.
bis.org/publications/yields-…
Stephen Spratt retweeted
*BREAKING: Bondistan is opening its borders on 15th September to celebrate Lehman Collapse Day and you're invited to get your visas ready!
The Ultimate Guide to Bondistan 2nd Edition is coming to print!
Do me a favour and spread the word!
More details to follow.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Whatever you think about this yield curve operation from Bessent, it is not QE. No reserves are being created. The good news is anyone trying to call it QE is basically confessing that they don’t understand anything about this issue area and can be crossed off your list of people to listen to.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
The biggest issue facing yen right now is that there isn't enough incentive for japanese investors to repatriate funds to its domestic market. Despite the massive AI trade that has lifted its equity market, Japan's CA surplus remains extraordinarily high due to its foreign holdings that continue recycling into foreign assets - aka the Primary Income component. The 3M avgs show just how much.
As much as the recent trade deficit has contributed to lowering it, that in itself is at the mercy of the yen, whose weakness continues to drive both the trade deficit and CA surplus .
Even though flows to USTs have lightened as UST performance has soured, the yen has remained hostage to rate differentials where JGBs yields are the hands weighed down by the seat of the BOJ.
Promises to change are simply the sounds of "pew pew pew" in a kinetic war a thousand yards from the frontline. Interventions, especially conducted in a vacuum are ending up a joke and the market is currently laughing.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Excited to read this next as I thought his book Range was full of exceptional stories and its central thesis about breadth felt right.
1/ I just finished one of the best books I've EVER read.
Comes out next week.
My friend @DavidEpstein (Range, The Sports Gene) has written a masterpiece on the virtue of constraints, of not thinking OUTSIDE the box but "INSIDE the BOX"...
As a few quick excerpts that 🤯...
Stephen Spratt retweeted
You know Japan has a labor shortage when Instagram shows you ads with a guy bowing before you and begging you to apply for a job.
One guy is begging for taxi drivers who can work night shifts.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
The generic 30 Year US Treasury yield at 5.10% currently is less than 10 basis points below the nearly two decade high, and keeps bumping up against this resistance. Seems unlikely to hold. Even Lacy Hunt has turned bearish, to his credit.
Stephen Spratt retweeted
FT: "The world economy is at risk from the “tit-for-tat” economic warfare breaking out between nations, the IMF’s outgoing chief economist has warned."
What many in the IMF have trouble understanding, and what Joan Robinson explained in 1937, is that trade conflict doesn't begin when some economies begin to retaliate after their increasingly onerous trade deficits lead to domestic political problems, but rather when mercantilist economies begin to implement wage-suppressing policies that lead to persistent, beggar-thy-neighbor trade surpluses.
The IMF was created in 1944 to help manage unsustainable capital imbalances. By noticing the associated trade imbalances only after the consequences had led to deficit-economy retaliation, the IMF has been pretty much asleep at the wheel.
ft.com/content/8199cd6d-e513…
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Happy 100th birthday, Sir David Attenborough 🎉❤️
The broadcaster who changed how we see the natural world.
#DavidAttenborough
Stephen Spratt retweeted
Regional bank “cockroaches” may continue to affect stocks AND bonds. 10 year Treasury has no business below 4% though 4.5% more like it — too much supply/deficits despite slowing, soon-to-be 1% growth economy.
Gold has become a momentum/meme asset. If you want to own it, wait awhile.
