Stattraction (@Stattraction) profile picture

Stattraction

@Stattraction

I'm trying to predict things that I don't want to be predictable. Covering AFL, Counter-Strike and Sport Climbing. (He/they)

 Australia
stattraction.au/
Joined November 2017
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Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)Photo by Stattraction (@Stattraction)
This week: a look into what makes up a contested possession and whether they really matter. Huge thanks to Andrew (@andrew_whelan @WheeloRatings) for collaborating on this one. Wheelo is about the best single source for AFL stats right now. abc.net.au/news/2024-07-19/a…
Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success' or just a 'fancy term' in the AFL?

Are contested possessions a 'key indicator of success' or just a 'fancy term' in the AFL?

The contested possession has increasingly gained prominence in recent years, but there is much debate in the AFL world about its value.

abc.net.au
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Stattraction retweeted
Liam 🐦 (@crow_data_sci) profile picture
Liam 🐦@crow_data_sci16 Jun 2023
For a limited time only. Threat rating and Retention Rating for 190k kicks since 2021 with my modelling and everything you need to model it yourself. You can also plot, analyse and summarise for any players/teams you want drive.google.com/file/d/19xG…
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Adam Singer (@AdamSinger) profile picture
Adam Singer
@AdamSinger8 Jan 2023
This is the quality of chart you would expect to be published on a dot info domain. Someone paid someone else money for this and thought it was a perfectly fine way to visualize data. I mean, where to begin...
Image from Adam Singer (@AdamSinger)
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Liam 🐦 (@crow_data_sci) profile picture
Liam 🐦@crow_data_sci20 Dec 2022
Nick Hind may be one of the best kicks in the AFL? Highest ranked Expected Kicking Efficiency Differential in 2022.
Image from Liam 🐦 (@crow_data_sci)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL12 Aug 2022
Round 22 by the models. squiggle.com.au
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Liam 🐦 (@crow_data_sci) profile picture
Liam 🐦@crow_data_sci3 Aug 2022
AFL Expected Goal Assists: On Monday night I reworked my xScore more model to add an equity score to Goal Assists (GA), creating a new metric Expected Goal Assists (xGA). In this thread I'll look at how I created the metric, interpretations and graphs.
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Expected Scores are back in the news. There's unsurprisingly a lot of misunderstanding, so now may be a good time for a primer. What are they? What can they help us understand about the game? And crucially, what can't they measure?
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL18 May 2022
Added Power Rankings to the site, based on the cumulative wisdom of the internet's finest models. It's pretty. It's interactive. It speaks truth to power. squiggle.com.au/power-rankin…
Power Rankings - Squiggle

Power Rankings - Squiggle

AFL Power Ratings from the internet's finest models.

squiggle.com.au
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Josh (@databyjosh) profile picture
Josh@databyjosh23 Mar 2022
2021: Port Adelaide hailed as masters of the close game, going 5-0 when the margin is 12 or less. 2022, Round 1: Port Adelaide lose a game by 11 points. Why? All in my latest on @StatsInsider: statsinsider.com.au/blog/afl…

Like It Or Not, A Close AFL Game Really Is A Coin Flip

The word luck can make it sound as if all notions of cause and effect fly out the window as soon as a margin drops below two goals. Let’s put it this way instead: the results of close games are...

statsinsider.com.au
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Tori Groves-Little isn't going to make a big deal if you get their pronoun wrong. 👉 goldcoastfc.com.au/news/1043…
Image from Gold Coast Suns (@GoldCoastSUNS)
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The AFL Lab (@AFLLab) profile picture
The AFL Lab@AFLLab24 Mar 2021
Introducing @AFLxScore, a new twitter bot live-posting the expected scores of scoring shots in AFLM. Details: theafllab.wordpress.com/2021…
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL9 Oct 2020
What I learned from years of crunching football numbers so you don't have to: squiggle.com.au/some-useful-…
Some Useful Things I Learned About Football - Squiggle

Some Useful Things I Learned About Football - Squiggle

I got into football stats because I wanted to understand why my team was so bad for so long and was there any hope for the future or should I just die. That was about 20 years ago. Along the way, I...

squiggle.com.au
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The Shot Equity / Expected Score polls revealed some misconceptions and some really great perspectives. I'll endeavour to provide some answers in this thread
Darren O'Shaughnessy (@RankingSw) profile pictureDarren O'Shaughnessy@RankingSw22 Jul 2020
Inspired by this xG Philosophy thread xitter.cf/xGPhilosophy/status/12… I'd like to run a few polls for the AFL analytics crew. I don't mind if you call it Expected Score or Shot Equity or xSco, as long as we're talking about the expected number of points from a shot at goal [1/5]
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL10 Jun 2020
The Hawks are virtual premiers! Mitch Lewis slots a goal with only a minute remaining to sinks Port Adelaide by 6 points. Hawthorn came from 5th, winning 4 finals and inflicting Port’s only defeat for the year in the match that mattered most.
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL31 May 2020
That’s the end of the home & away portion of Virtually Season 2020! Finals begin Wednesday night and will run most nights thereafter until the GF.
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL24 May 2020
De Boer misses and the Eagles hold on to claim victory, kicking the last 3 goals of the match to win by 1 point! A huge result - West Coast are 5-5 and can break into the finals if they beat Collingwood next week & other results fall their way. GWS also 5-5, must beat Adelaide.
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL23 May 2020
Calamity for Adelaide! No goals for Eddie Betts but his new/old club get the win by 16. The Crows could have shored up a top 8 spot; instead they’re 5-5 and teetering on the brink of oblivion at 9th. Carlton are 4-6.
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL8 May 2020
Round 8 kicks off tonight with Brisbane (2-5) hosting Richmond (6-1). New this round: * Support for after-the-siren scores. * Bugfix for clubs' 2nd-best fwd stealing scores from best fwd. Follow it live at squiggle.com.au/
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL29 Mar 2020
The Dockers have started strongly at home against the Hawks in the last match of the virtual round. Modeling this game: @Stattraction. Follow it live at squiggle.com.au/virtual/?gam…
Image from Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL)
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Max Barry (@SquiggleAFL) profile picture
Max Barry@SquiggleAFL25 Mar 2020
We will be simulating every game of season 2020 in real-time as if it were really being played. Preview below. More to come. squiggle.com.au/virtually-se…
Virtually Season 2020 - Squiggle

Virtually Season 2020 - Squiggle

Since there is no actual football, we will do the next best thing: simulate it. With the support of the world’s best football computer models, Squiggle will play out each and every cancelled game in...

squiggle.com.au
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