🔶We have other great team notes, but this one is perhaps the most important: we did not find any Republican non-response bias in our poll.

🔶Spanberger is the floor. Democrats are winning over voters who, at this point, planned to vote for Winsome Sears in 2025. Most people who were undecided in the 2025 gubernatorial race have already decided to vote Democratic. 🔶The undecideds overall skew Republican-leaning based on their previous vote choices. 🔶Most partisans kept their party ID the same, but Democrats have gained in party ID over time.

🔶This electorate is expected to be older than in 2025, largely driven by a lack of enthusiasm among Republicans under the age of 45 (as seen in many states). 🔶Our presidential recall is Harris +14, up from Harris +12 in our first poll last year. 🔶Latinos are expected to be a slightly smaller portion of the electorate compared to 2025, and Black voters are expected to make up a slightly higher share.

🔶Democrats have doubled their margins with voters under 45 compared to Spanberger in 2025. 🔶The early vote is 72D-28R. We're looking at a much more Democratic early vote this year, and the early vote will be a majority of the votes cast in 2026. This is similar to 2024, when it was 51% of all votes cast, and unlike 2025, when it was 44%. 🔶As seen in early voting across the nation, black voters are making up a higher share of the early vote relative to their typical share. At this point, it was 18% black in VA; now it's 22%.

Highlights from the poll: Trump's net approval is -29 points, down 14 points since our April poll of likely voters in the redistricting referendum electorate. That's 2 points better than Trump's approval in VA in our approval model. projects.statenavigate.com/i…

ICYMI: we now have a national state legislative forecast simulator. Plug in what you think will happen in the general election and how demographics will vote, and see how it stacks up against our forecasts. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

Scott Approval Amongst Scott 24 -> Janoo 26 Voters 🔴Disapprove 57% 🟢Approve 40% ⚪️Don't Know 3%

Scott Approval 🟢Approve 57% 🔴Disapprove 37% ⚪️Don't Know 6% VT Legislature Approval 🔴Disapprove 49% 🟢Approve 38% ⚪️Don't Know 13% Trump Approval 🔴Disapprove 72% 🟢Approve 26% ⚪️Don't Know 2%

🚨NEW VERMONT POLL🚨 GOVERNOR 🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 46% 🔵Amanda Janoo (D) 43% 🟢3rd Parties: 4% ⚪️Undecided 8% LIEUTENANT GOVERNOR 🔵Molly Gray (D) 59% 🔴Phil Scott (R) [inc] 32% ⚪️Undecided 9% n=948 | ±3.2 MoE articles.statenavigate.com/v…

🚨VERMONT NAVIGATE LAUNCH🚨 We're up in our 17th state, Vermont. We have a forecast, district summary pages, news aggregation up now. Watch out for our Vermont Governor poll dropping in a few hours! statenavigate.org/states/vt/

🚨MAJOR INTERACTIVE RELEASE🚨 One of our coolest 2026 interactives just dropped. Now you can see President Trump's approval in every state and state legislative district, daily. projects.statenavigate.com/i…

🚨FORECAST LAUNCH🚨 We have officially launched our state legislative forecasts for every state in the country. We currently project Democrats (and Democrat-caucusing Independents) to have a net gain of 407 state legislative seats in November. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

🚨FORECAST LAUNCHES🚨 We're launching our state government forecasts today in WA, OR, WY, SD, OK, and TN. We now have forecasts in every state but Vermont. Democrats currently have a net gain of 374 state legislative seats nationwide. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

🚨FORECAST LAUNCHES🚨 Today, we're launching our forecasts in MA, RI, MO, MT, ND, NH, and NM. DEMs are projected to net 350 seats in the colored states on the map. They netted 296 in them in 2018. projects.statenavigate.com/2…

Our WV SD-1 live poll is closing soon. At the same time, our live poll for IA SD-35 will begin! DEMs flipped this very Republican-leaning seat in a January 2025 special election. Can they hold it? projects.statenavigate.com/i…

🚨LIVE POLL🚨 At 12PM, we're polling West Virginia State Senate District 1, a Trump +39 district that our forecast calls a Likely Republican race. Delegate Shawn Fluharty (D-Wheeling) is running against freshman incumbent Laura Wikam Chapman (R). projects.statenavigate.com/i…

We're doing it live. Each day of the week, we start a LIVE poll. Monday: WV SD-1 Tuesday: IA SD-35 Wednesday: WV SD-8 Thursday: Vermont Governor Friday: MI HD-57 Donate to our polling fund & help us cover costs: statenavigate.org/donate/