-Oil
Pimville 1808
Joined November 2011
- Tweets159K
- Following881
- Followers2K
- Likes3.9K
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Alright, Coalition Formers. These are the scenarios if ActionSA and the DA do not form coalitions in Gauteng.
CITY OF JOHANNESBURG
270 seats (136 needed for a majority)
🔹THE DA 🔹
DA + ANC = 154
But if the region refuses a DA coalition, as it did in 2024, and neither ActionSA nor the ANC is available, and it is unwilling to change position on the EFF, MK etc..
DA (91) + FF Plus (5) + IFP (7) + Rise Mzansi (5) + ACDP (2) + Al Jama-ah (3) = 113
Below the majority threshold by 23 seats.
The DA would need either the ANC or ActionSA to reach a majority in Johannesburg. This leaves it in quite a weak bargaining position.
🟩ACTIONSA🟩
ActionSA + ANC = 106
Below the majority threshold.
ActionSA appears to only have reservations with a DA coalition. MK (15) is another possible partner, but let's leave it out for now. I am not sure it is a partner ActionSA would choose.
ActionSA (43) + ANC (63) + EFF (17) + SACP (2) + PA (5) + ATM (3) + Rise Mzansi (5) + IFP (7) = 145
A viable majority without the DA or MK.
It would, of course, be an ANC-led coalition. Deputy mayor, perhaps?
🟡THE ANC⬛️
DA + ANC = 154
But if the region says no to a DA coalition, the ANC has another route:
ANC (63) + ActionSA (43) + EFF (17) + SACP (2) + PA (5) + ATM (3) + Rise Mzansi (5) + IFP (7) = 145
ANC-led coalition, with a 9-seat majority cushion without the DA and without MK.
IN CONCLUSION:
The ANC and ActionSA have a viable route to a majority without the DA, and without needing MK.
The DA's alternative route, using the parties listed above, falls 23 seats short. It would need to bring in additional smaller parties, which would mean possibly changing tack on the EFF.
The thing here not simply the numbers. It's who is willing to form coalitions with whom, and who is not.
Tshwane later.
Serenity Episodes retweeted
✊🏽‼️Thank you check point for Exposing them.
We are in deep Shit as a country 🤞🏽😏.
Serenity Episodes retweeted
ANC, ActionSA, EFF and MK have the opportunity to do the funniest thing ever.
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Joburg results:
DA 2016: 104 seats
DA 2021: 71 seats
DA 2026: 51 seats
Seats have councillors that represent wards and vote for things in council. That is what matters at local level.
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Please, stop misleading society and your readers. Show some respect.
South Afrcans have lost faith in politicians. Let's have a media people can trust, not this misinformation carried in this article.
Very unfortunate media reporting.
Herman Mashaba’s party wants DA to dump its mayoral candidate as coalition battle intensifies. ebx.sh/OCIGNU
Serenity Episodes retweeted
ActionSA has concluded a productive and mutually respectful first engagement with the ANC in which we discussed principles around how stable and effective coalition governments could be formed.
We remain committed to engaging all parties in such a manner.
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Okay so here's the thing nobody is talking about.
AGOA gets terminated. 2 November. $1.7 billion in exports on the line. Gone as of 1 January 2027.
But four days later 6 November government gazettes the chicken quota. Raises it. From 73,881 tonnes to 74,351. Backdated to April.
The notice still says the quota is "linked to AGOA benefits."
AGOA benefits are dead. The chicken keeps coming.
Let me explain why this matters.
Back in 2015, the deal was: SA lets 65,000 tonnes of American bone-in chicken in duty-free, keeps AGOA access.
Americans want white meat. Breast. The dark stuff legs, quarters gets dumped here at prices below production cost because nobody at home wants it.
SAPA calls it dumping. They're not wrong.
The deal was supposed to work both ways. Lose AGOA, lose the chicken quota.
But here we are. November 6, 2026. Four days after AGOA termination. Government raised the quota anyway.
And this is not a small leak.
74,351 tonnes of chicken. That's roughly 14.8 million individual chickens hitting the market at below-cost prices. Every year.
The local poultry industry employs over 110,000 people — direct jobs. Most of them rural. Most of them without alternatives.
SAPA says the rebate terminates automatically when AGOA goes.
Government hasn't said yes.
FairPlay says the imports are killing local producers, rural jobs, and the Poultry Master Plan.
Government hasn't said no.
DTIC hasn't ruled. The quota stays. The trucks keep rolling.
And honestly, that's what bothers me.
When AGOA was worth $4 billion, the chicken was annoying but manageable. You paid it and moved on.
Now AGOA is $1.7 billion and falling. The chicken is not a concession anymore. It's a liability.
The government backdated the increase to April. They knew the AGOA clock was ticking and raised it anyway.
So the question is simple, right?
If the deal was tied to AGOA, and AGOA is dead… why is the quota alive?
Because if the answer is "because we haven't decided yet" that's not a trade strategy.
That's getting played.
And the people paying for it are not in Pretoria. They're in rural towns where the poultry plant is the only employer for 80 kilometres.
No AGOA, no US chicken: Poultry lobby sees opening to kill 74 000-tonne import deal
brnw.ch/21x6XF4
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Ok. Can we then agree that your position is not based on “democratic principles” but your personal feelings?
Cause if you argue that denying Helen Zille the mayoral chains violates the substantive intent of our democracy, then you should argue the same for any party. Cause democratic principles must be consistent regardless of “personal feelings”. Am I wrong?
Serenity Episodes retweeted
Hey! Sorry about your experience, we tried explaining this to JOC and they just set that rule and didn’t want to hear my team out when trying to reason with them, SASREA rules and they’ll tell you that if they find a bottle outside that area they will shut down the event. The team tried but they refused 🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾
