SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
I've worked closely with Erika. I know of no economist who is more data-focused & devoted to truth in statistics. She never shied from speaking truth to power when the data were disappointing. Nothing would be worse for US credibility than political meddling in our economic data.
Donald J. Trump Truth Social 08.01.25 02:09 PM EST
I was just informed that our Country’s “Jobs Numbers” are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala’s chances of Victory. This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers. I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can’t be manipulated for political purposes. McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under “TRUMP” despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting “Kamala” elected – How did that work out? Jerome “Too Late” Powell should also be put “out to pasture.” Thank you for your attention to this matter!
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
After the recent outsized moves in UST yields and corresponding plunge in mortgage rates, things have stabilized a bit.
The market now expects the Fed to cut roughly every meeting until next May before tapering off to a total of ten 25bps rate cuts to a terminal level of 3%.
2022: Most-anticipated recession ever. Didn't pan out...
2024: Most-anticipated rate cutting cycle in decades 👀
Cool chart from @BobEUnlimited on the trend in "recession" mentions on earnings calls...
I thought it would be interesting to overlay mentions of "rate cuts" as well.
Takeaways:
1) The most-anticipated rate cutting cycle in decades is about to commence,
and
2) Earnings call mentions of "recession" aren't a great leading indicator of recessions.
Keep in mind the 3Q24 counts below are only a partial quarter of data...
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Heavy job losses continue to be reported in temporary help services, with the 3-month average showing a reading of -30,000.
The trucking sector is also consistently shedding jobs.
These two sectors are always early movers in the labor market cycle.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Temporary Help Services, which is widely considered a bellwether for US labor markets, dropped 49K in June. It's largest decline since April 2021: (Chart from ECAN)
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Here is every time in the past ~30 years the Nasdaq closed at a 3-year high for 7 days in a row.
It also shows the number of days there were more stocks at new highs than lows during the streak.
Notice anything different about this time?
12/03/96...7
07/11/97...7
07/16/98...7
01/11/99...7
11/08/99...7
12/27/99...7
02/23/15...7
02/15/17...7
12/20/19...7
11/05/21...7
06/18/24...1
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
We've never seen anything like this before.
Once again, a new high in the Nasdaq. Once again, more stocks falling to 52-week lows than rising to 52-week highs on that exchange.
That's 9 days out of the past 20. It blows away any other time period.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
We also saw dozens of other warning syndromes today in daily data. That combination of a fresh high with deteriorating internals feels excruciating for hedged equity strategies, but it's also a sign to review risk exposure.
Not a forecast. Not a top call. Just sharing data FYI.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Once extreme valuations and deteriorating internals open a trap door, it's then that overextended conditions become worth monitoring.
Last week's tally of warning syndromes in weekly data eclipsed the November 2021 "Motherlode"
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Despite repeated record highs in the Nasdaq, there is a persistent bug.
Most of these days have seen more stocks at 52-week lows than highs. It's happened 9 out of 10 days.
There has been only one similar cluster in ~40 years: late October through early November 2007.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
The S&P 500 is on track for a new high, even though...
• More NYSE issues are hitting 52-week lows than highs
• More NYSE issues are declining than advancing
• More NYSE volume is flowing into losers than winners
Over the past 60 years, this hasn't happened very often.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
The Nasdaq closed at a record high.
But there were fewer stocks on that exchange rising to 52-week highs than falling to 52-week lows.
This has not happened many times. The handful of times it did were...well.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
The $TSLA Faithful responses to this post are pretty illuminating. At this point this is just a set of simplistic TAM stories for the believers. And Musk plays them like a fiddle.
There are a lot of overly optimistic Tesla fans who think the Optimus Robot is about to enter volume production, but that's just not true. It will likely take another 5 to 10 years of development before it can even be considered for commercial use.
I'm pointing out that neither FSD nor Optimus is ready yet. The progress chart below by @edgecase411 shows that FSD is about 65% complete. We don't know how long it will take to reach 100%, but the chart helps us track the progress.
We need a similar chart for the Optimus Robot. If you have experience in this area, please consider creating one. Thanks.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Boom -- there it is. Citi Economic Surprise Index flips negative, lowest in 15 months, biggest weekly decline since April '23.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
That is because the policy outlook is much more constrained today than it was back then. Inflation measures have accelerated, limiting JP from another "mission accomplished" pivot for awhile. And the Treasury has very large ongoing deficits that have to be financed.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Just to get back to the asset price levels then would require all assets to fall collectively about 10%. Most likely some combination of S&P at close to 4000 and 10yr bond yields back above 5%.
And that is assuming that policy makers respond there, which isn't a given.
SquareInvest 🇺🇦 retweeted
Kaplan on CNBC saying we must "slow the implementation of the Inflation Reduction Act to slow inflation."