
Prof @IIES_Sthlm, Prof @cemfinews, Fmr Editor @RevEconStudies, PhD @Penn, @MarshallAlums @UVA macro research @iza_bonn @cepr_org 🌈🇩🇪🇸🇪🇺🇸
Stockholm, Sweden
Joined September 2012
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Have falling labor market barriers to women led to a change in selection of high-skilled women away from education, leading to a decline in the quality of teachers, and human capital production? See my co-author Kieran present our paper at NBER SI
youtube.com/live/mQbLtpkXUH0…
Replying to @scaling01
Hey @AnthropicAI employees, would any of you like to put your money where your mouth is and join this bet?
Still very much looking for counterparties on the fast-growth (=real GDP growth > 15% by 2033) side
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
Some real diversity of opinion at Google DeepMind: @alexolegimas joins the bet while his colleague @SamuelAlbanie takes the other side increasing his existing stake!
Total size of pot now $425,000!
benjaminmoll.com/growth_bet/
My former classmate and Model UN partner is severely under followed
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
One of the best jobs you can get.
Are you on the economics job market this year? The IIES is recruiting a tenure-track Assistant Professor. We welcome applicants from all fields of economics. Apply by Nov 13. #EconTwitter #AcademicJobs
More info: su.se/english/divisions/inst…
Apply to come join us at the institute! A fantastic place to start a career. Join our new five excellent hires that started this fall @RHelensdotter @ReichardtHugo @caterina_vieira @CanishkNaik @KHarmenberg
Are you on the economics job market this year? The IIES is recruiting a tenure-track Assistant Professor. We welcome applicants from all fields of economics. Apply by Nov 13. #EconTwitter #AcademicJobs
More info: su.se/english/divisions/inst…
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
With Mike Woodford's Nobel Prize, this has been a week of extreme joy at his well-deserved recognition (and Bob Hall's, of course). Yet, I won't deny it, also a week of some self-reflection and personal crisis. You see, he was my main advisor at Princeton. Now, looking at my other advisors, one cannot help but wonder: What value added could I possibly have contributed to my own research agenda, formulated in the early 2000s at Princeton? As it turned out, the coming years would be eventful for my other three advisors: Krugman (Nobel 2008), Sims (Nobel 2011), Bernanke (Nobel 2022). With this sample of three establishing Granger causality (predictive, not causal, whatever the name suggests; Sims himself did much to bring the concept into macroeconomics), I confidently stated the inevitable conclusion in 2022 on Twitter (now X): considerable money could be won in betting markets by placing a bet on Woodford getting the Nobel Prize in the coming years. I am not a betting man, but I hope somebody made money.
Yet, there is a twist to the story. How does one define one's PhD committee? The way I have defined it is the people you worked the most with, who wrote you letters of recommendation when you went on the job market, and who then signed off on your thesis later. At Princeton, there was a rather liberal policy on when the actual formal defense took place. At that time, your main advisor dragged in whoever happened to be around to listen to you talk for 30 minutes or so. I don't remember who was actually around for the formalities, except Mike and, hard to forget, Chris Sims.
Characteristically, Chris sent me an email the night before telling me that he thought Markov perfect equilibrium made no sense, which generated a lively exchange. Those who did not know Chris might have thought this was inconsiderate, as if he were trying to block my defense. It was quite the opposite. Chris was just the quintessential scholar. He was reading the thesis and just wanted to talk about it.
But back to this week's reflections. I would be remiss not to mention that there was another, perhaps unexpected by those familiar with monetary economics, utility player at Princeton during my time. And this utility player actually happened to be one of the people I spoke the most with, for I was closest to him in age, TA'd his grad classes for him and, memorably, a Money and Banking class where he taught the entire class using a microfounded IS-LM model based upon a two-generation OLG model. I still remember the puzzlement on one of the students' faces as he asked me in a TA class: So prices are fixed for ... 30 years? And he DID write a letter for me (bringing the total of this group to five!). So, fellow economists, prepare your bets. Given my research agenda in monetary economics, he may seem to be coming a bit out of left field. Then again, he is one of those economists who could advise anyone on anything. The utility player was none other than the George J. Stigler Distinguished Service Professor in Economics and the College at the University of Chicago: Robert Shimer. He's much younger than the others, so it may take some time. But you heard it here first: Prepare your bets!
PS. Picture taken at a conference in honor of Mark Gertler recently. Paul and Rob added, courtesy of AI, ex post.
🤖 Made with AI
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Data project (AI-able) and exam (paper, no aids) score distribution on the undergraduate Development Economics course I have been teaching at Stockholm University, 2022-2026.
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
I was at research@ today and saw Yossi give this talk. Natural disasters like flash floods, wildfires, earthquakes etc destroy thousands of lives and millions of livelihoods every year. The ability to predict disasters ahead of time, giving people time to prepare and move to safety. This is the promise of AI in action.
Replying to @ymatias
We’re expanding early access to new Google Earth AI capabilities, including our experimental Geospatial Reasoning agent & Planetary Prediction Engine.
In our new technical report, we show how our agent more than doubles the accuracy on complex spatial problems compared to language models out of the box.
Some of our partners have already put the agent to work — like WHO AFRO using it in the DRC to map remote Ebola exposure risks across 48 settlements in minutes.
More about our announcements: goo.gle/4i2ZyOE
The new technical report: arxiv.org/abs/2610.15750
Experimental Geospatial Reasoning agent: sites.research.google/gr/geo…
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Very timely with Bob Hall's arrival to Sweden to receive the prize, were having a mini-conference on The Micro and Macro of Household Consumption-Savings Decisions in Uppsala on Dec 3-4.
Great line-up of exciting talks! Including @leth_soren @joj_como @glviolante @morganemrichard @mboutros_econ @francescofurla8 @heddathorell @RoineVestman @dwschanz @esavoia_econ @SorryToBeKurt @cblandhol, keynote @R_Blundell_UCL, and more!
🤖 Made with AI
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Sharing some more or less random 2am-breastfeeding-musings from a few weeks ago.
If you'd like to write your story, send it to us! We'll keep publishing personal ones when we return with Phase 3 of @OneExtraYear!
It’s bonus story day!
6 weeks into OneExtraYear’s maternity leave (which is all you get at many places; see our data website), we hear some postpartum musings by our very own @Ale_M_Peter.
While we will move our focus to solutions when we return, we’ll still publish personal stories to keep @OneExtraYear's special touch. So, send us a story if you’d like to share yours!
substack.com/home/post/p-220…
One extra year is back. Check out this bonus story ( where I have a cameo appearance)
It’s bonus story day!
6 weeks into OneExtraYear’s maternity leave (which is all you get at many places; see our data website), we hear some postpartum musings by our very own @Ale_M_Peter.
While we will move our focus to solutions when we return, we’ll still publish personal stories to keep @OneExtraYear's special touch. So, send us a story if you’d like to share yours!
substack.com/home/post/p-220…
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
So over-the-moon-thrilled that Bob Hall won the Nobel Prize in economics today. We have been friends and coauthors for more than 30 years, and I've learned so much from him! A few stories: 1/N
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
One thing that's been underemphasized is the importance of having true diversity of output at the frontier. Using a single model, there are unmistakable signatures of each in everything from writing to "taste" in code. And this is most obvious in design (e.g., the color palate chosen as background).
I've been using Gemini 4 for some time now (it's a good model, you should try it), and I can say it is completely unique. This is obvious from the visualizations everyone is sharing now (including Ethan's excellent demos), but also in the way that it writes and communicates back and forth.
For an economist, the benefits of diversity and independence are baked into nearly all of our models; correlated signals/information/priors is how you get fragility, learning traps, and AI slop. So I'm very glad to see our big boi out there for people to use.
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
While we celebrate chief architect Woodford, now is also a good time to remember the many people involved in building the New-Keynesian theory of business cycles and stabilization policy.
Below is a slide from my first-year Ph.D. macro class.
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Stanford macro celebrating Bob Hall’s Nobel prize earlier today.
Congratulations Bob!!!
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Replying to @GautiEggertsson
Just as with recessions, I can predict Woodford will get it but I cannot predict when.
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Sometimes sticky, always yummy! Go macro!
BREAKING NEWS
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences has decided to award the 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation.”
#NobelPrize
IIES represent
IIES was represented on stage at this year's Economics Prize announcement.
Prof @hasslerjohn, Chair of the Economics Prize Committee, & Assoc Prof Timo Boppart, Committee Member, help uphold the rigorous scientific standards behind one of the world's most influential awards.
Great choice of Bob and Mike! Well deserved. Consumption and the NK model
This year’s prize in economic sciences uses microfoundations to deliver macro insights.
Traditional Keynesian models built upon statistical and historical relationships between macroeconomic variables. The New Keynesian models are based on microfoundations, decisions that are made by individuals and businesses.
The 2026 Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel has been awarded to Robert E. Hall and Michael Woodford “for microeconomic foundations of macroeconomic stabilisation.”
#NobelPrize
Kurt MIT-shock-man retweeted
Thank you, Prof. Mariassunta Giannetti and Prof. Valerie Ramey, for your inspiring keynote lectures and thought-provoking insights @ecb monetary policy conference this year. @ProfMariassunta @ValerieRamey7
The recent surge in energy prices represents a second wave of the energy supply shock, says Chief Economist Philip R. Lane. Its effects on growth and inflation must be assessed alongside fiscal policy, AI and financial conditions.
Read the speech ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date…




































