Economist at @ING_economics
London, England
Joined July 2016
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James Smith retweeted
We still think the Bank of England will cut rates in November, even if many others don't. Why? Watch this from @SmithEconomics
James Smith retweeted
Don't miss our webinar next week in which our economists (@carstenbrzeski, @smitheconomics and @michieltukker) chat through their key calls for the eurozone and euro market rates – and, crucially, the risks that could prove them wrong.
Sign up here:
think.ing.com/articles/webin…
James Smith retweeted
While the bar for the Bank of England to speed up rate cuts seems to be set fairly high, today's UK jobs data helps cement cuts in August and November, writes @smitheconomics.
think.ing.com/snaps/shock-uk…
James Smith retweeted
No need to phone a friend when @SmithEconomics can give (probably) correct answers to all your global questions about the financial world next week...
think.ing.com/articles/think…
That big rise in UK services inflation was almost entirely down to road tax and Easter. It should fall back 5.4% in April to the 4.5% area this summer
Tomorrow’s inflation data looks highly unpredictable. But the story on services inflation is getting better and should continue to improve into the summer, enabling the BoE to cut rates further (though maybe not faster) than markets expect think.ing.com/articles/why-t…
James Smith retweeted
'Is it fair to say that sucking up by offering a state visit to Donald Trump actually paid off?'
Economist James Smith tells @AliMirajUK that 'diplomacy didn't matter for anybody', as the UK gets 'lumped' with 10% tariffs.
Looking forward to chatting with @AliMirajUK on @LBC at the top of the hour. Can’t imagine what we’ll be talking about…
James Smith retweeted
The UK's problems with tax and spend are shared right across Europe. Watch this!
James Smith retweeted
UK services inflation is stuck at 5% and will stay around there for the next few months.
But @SmithEconomics says steady improvements could be the catalyst for faster Bank of England rate cuts next spring than markets are currently pricing. Here's why:
think.ing.com/snaps/sticky-u…
Jack and the Beanstalk: the perfect pantomime for the global economy? Oh not it isn’t! (Spoiler, yes Jack does get hit by Agricultural Property Relief…)
think.ing.com/articles/think…
James Smith retweeted
In this week’s THINK aloud, @knightleyeco, @carstenbrzeski and @smitheconomics discuss the themes that will shape the global economy, inflation and interest rates over the coming year.
think.ing.com/podcasts/liste…
James Smith retweeted
Not many people are singing Europe’s economic praises right now, but maybe it’s time to start humming a different tune. Be more like Nicole. Or @SmithEconomics
think.ing.com/articles/think…
There’s a big caveat to these latest Bank of England forecasts. The budget measures are included, but the market reaction since is not. If the increase in market rates since the budget had been factored in then the upward revisions to growth/CPI would be more modest
James Smith retweeted
#Trump has declared victory in the 2024 elections.
What does his win mean for the economy? A lower tax environment that should boost sentiment and spending in the near term. But promised tariffs, immigration controls and higher borrowing costs will become headwinds.
More here: think.ing.com/articles/trump…
UK markets have been on a wild ride since the budget announcement. Big tax rises are coming, but not as quickly as big spending increases. And the prospect of higher growth has led investors to reconsider Bank of England rate cut prospects think.ing.com/articles/uk-bo…
James Smith retweeted
Our @SmithEconomics is miffed he's not off to the IMF next week. These are the questions he'd be asking the financial glitterati. ⬇️
think.ing.com/articles/think…
James Smith retweeted
UK services inflation has fallen much further than expected and, crucially, is well below the Bank of England’s most recent forecasts. If that continues, and we think it will, then rate cuts are likely to accelerate beyond November, writes @smitheconomics
think.ing.com/snaps/plunging…
James Smith retweeted
Unemployment may be down but so are vacancies. It’ll take time, but we think wages are heading lower, and that means faster Bank of England rate cuts
think.ing.com/snaps/uk-jobs-…
James Smith retweeted
You've got to read our latest THINK Ahead just for @SmithEconomics' memes... It's next week today!
think.ing.com/articles/think…
