ING’s Chief International Economist. Views are (sometimes) my own.
New York, USA
Joined February 2017
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US manufacturing is showing real signs of life as a strong economy, tech investment, energy security and tariffs all help to boost advanced manufacturing output. But there is growing bifurcation in the sector… think.ing.com/articles/us-in…
James Knightley retweeted
Intensifying cost-of-living concerns, linked to the price of motor fuel and the war with Iran, have boosted the Democrats' chances of regaining control of Congress, but nothing is guaranteed in US elections.
@Knightleyeco looks at the 3 possible scenarios and what they may mean for the economy and markets.
think.ing.com/articles/us-mi…
James Knightley retweeted
We've just published our October Economic Update, covering some of the biggest themes shaping markets and the economy.
🟠Updated forecasts for central banks, FX and rates
🟠France's fiscal crisis and the ECB's options for responding
🟠Our latest oil outlook. We continue to forecast Brent at $80/bbl in 4Q26, well below current market pricing
🟠3 scenarios for markets ahead of the US midterms
🟠3 scenarios for inflation in the months ahead 📈 (see graphic)
Make sure you read it all here: think.ing.com/bundles/ing-mo…
US inflation was hotter than expected and leaves the markets gunning for rate hikes. But with wage growth looking so subdued, medium term price pressures don’t look quite so threatening. think.ing.com/articles/hotte…
The August jobs report beat all expectations and nudged the market further in the direction of a September Federal Reserve hike. If we get a “hot” 0.4% mom CPI print I suspect the Fed will choose to go with a one-off 25bp hike. think.ing.com/articles/us-jo…
James Knightley retweeted
The ongoing surge in tech-related capital spending is supporting US manufacturing. But job creation remains slow and wage pressures are remarkably benign, writes @Knightleyeco
think.ing.com/snaps/us-manuf…
The July inflation report offers further encouragement that progress is being made and after a poor jobs report, should cast additional doubt in the minds of the Fed’s hawks on the need for rate hikes. think.ing.com/articles/cooli…
Today’s US jobs rate casts serious doubt on the need for Fed rate hikes. If the participation rate hadn’t collapsed over the past 12 months, via disengagement, we would have seen unemployment above 5% rather than the 4.1% official number. think.ing.com/articles/surpr…
James Knightley retweeted
Just two weeks ago, markets priced in "next to nothing" for a Fed rate hike. Now it's a 1 in 3 chance.
@Knightleyeco of @ING_Economics tells @RemyBlaireNews the shift isn't really backed by the data, inflation numbers have been good and jobs numbers came in below expectations, but oil price volatility tied to the Strait of Hormuz could keep inflation elevated if shipping disruptions persist.
Fed rate hike expectations have been building in response the the rebound in oil prices. But softer inflation and jobs numbers for June suggest the Fed will likely hold steady for now. think.ing.com/articles/fomc-…
James Knightley retweeted
Crude oil prices have surged to their highest level in more than six weeks as tensions in the Middle East re-escalate. But @Knightleyeco still expects US inflation to ease this year. Here's why
The cooler hiring story takes some of the wind of the sails out of the argument for higher Fed rates this year, but the Fed’s focus is inflation right now. The July 14th CPI should post a negative MoM print and move the market closer to positioning for a prolonged Fed pause.
Headline payrolls may still be growing, but the sources of that growth are becoming ever narrower, writes @Knightleyeco
think.ing.com/articles/us-ra…
James Knightley retweeted
"I'm still leaning in the direction that the Fed doesn't need to hike rates."
@Knightleyeco of @ING_Economics tells @RemyBlaireNews falling gas prices, declining rents, wage growth slowing toward 3%, and the absence of last year's tariff step change all support a "prolonged pause."
James Knightley retweeted
Weak sentiment in the jobs market, a soft housing market, and declining inflation suggest the Fed will stay on hold for some time.
@Knightleyeco explains more in this piece: think.ing.com/opinions/why-w…
A third consecutive positive surprise on US job creation in an environment of hot inflation is understandably boosting Fed rate hike expectations, but there is a lack of breadth to the jobs story and household finances are under intensifying pressure…think.ing.com/articles/firm-…
James Knightley retweeted
.@Knightleyeco talks to @Reuters about why he doesn't agree with the OECD's forecast that US inflation will hit 4.2% this year due to soaring oil prices.
'Unlike in 2022, higher oil prices will erode spending power & that could actually lower inflation.'
reuters.com/video/watch/idRW…
James Knightley retweeted
Higher energy prices could hardly come at a more pivotal time for central banks.
Join our webinar next week, where we'll discuss how high energy prices would need to rise – and how long they’d need to stay elevated – to trigger central bank rate hikes.
think.ing.com/articles/centr…
James Knightley retweeted
🇺🇸 Rising global energy prices threaten to squeeze US household spending power and delay Federal Reserve rate cuts.
Read @Knightleyeco's analysis of how the Iran war could impact the US here:
think.ing.com/articles/us-in…
James Knightley retweeted
In theory, the new universal tariff rate of 15% should mean a slightly lower average tariff rate. In practice, a simplified tariff structure could lead to a higher realised rate. @Carstenbrzeski and @Knightleyeco explain
think.ing.com/articles/new-t…
