A macro system research approach to equity markets and crypto by studying things others ignore⚔️👐♟️🐝🎱💎🦍 OlDirtyBastard.ETH
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Let me say something that is contrary to popular belief the $gme.wt is not and has not been mispriced. Quick summary below, but read the full post.
#GME $GME
ELI5: Picture a warrant as a real ticket and the $32 call as a photo of that ticket. The two are worth about the same on paper, so you'd expect the same price. But if someone lent you a ticket and wants it back, the photo won't do. People are paying about 63 cents extra to hold the real ticket. Roughly 13 cents of that is the rental fee for borrowing one. The other roughly 50 cents is people paying so they aren't stuck empty-handed when the ticket has to be returned.
TLDR: The $0.63 gap between the warrant and the call is mostly not mispricing. About $0.13 is borrow cost, and about $0.50 looks like scarcity and settlement risk, though that part is my interpretation. Watch the gap into Oct 29: if it shrinks, the short side is covered, and if it widens even with GME under $32, they're scrambling for warrants.
The 570% Warrant Borrow, Explained: Spread, Not Siege
Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Data as of 9:58–10:03 AM ET (quotes 9:58 AM ET; model run 10:03 AM ET). Not investment advice.
ELI5
Think of a GME WS warrant as a ticket that lets you buy one GameStop share for $32, good until Friday, Oct 30. GME is about $25.62, so right now the ticket only pays if the price jumps.
People pay about 80¢ for that ticket. A nearly identical ticket on the options chain (the Oct-30 $32 call) costs about 23¢.
So traders borrow the pricey tickets, sell them, buy the cheap ones, and keep the difference. Borrowing costs 570% a year, but at 80¢ that's only about a penny a day.
If GME stays under $32, the tickets expire worthless and the borrowers win. If GME runs above $32, anyone who borrowed without the cheap ticket as a hedge has to buy warrants back in the same few days. That rush is the squeeze case.
The GameStop warrants (GME WS) expire in ten days, and this morning one broker showed a borrow rate of 570.50% to short them. That number is going to get passed around as proof of a squeeze. It's real, but it means something narrower than that, and the reason is sitting in plain sight on the options chain.
How to read the labels: T1 is a primary source (issuer, OCC, FINRA). T2 is a mirror, a delayed quote, or a broker screenshot. MODEL is Black-Scholes math on stated inputs. ASSUMPTION is an input that was picked. INF is inference.
ALT Cover image: The 570% Warrant Borrow, Explained: Spread, Not Siege (GME WS)
SimpleJack retweeted
Original filing said they’d file a reminder between 10 and 30 days before expiration. This reminder 8-K was accepted at 4:17pm a day early on the 10 day window
SimpleJack retweeted
🤔💭 Montreal drops 59 × 8 with two shrugging emojis.
Now consider the possibility of 59 representing roughly 59 million $GME warrants.
Multiply by eight and you get 472 million, remarkably close to $GME's common share count.
Coincidence, or another numerical breadcrumb? 🦋🧸
But there's a spicier interpretation. 🌶🌶🌶
What if the eight represents eight times the warrant issuance in short or synthetic exposure?
We're talking a hypothetical 472 million warrant-equivalent positions.
With GME.WS borrow fees exceeding 500% annualized and October 30th approaching, I can see why people are connecting those dots.
Borrow fees alone can't establish an eightfold short position, though.
The real question is whether any hidden exposure would create settlement obligations capable of surviving expiration.
If Montreal is pointing toward an eightfold imbalance, where are those obligations recorded, and who ultimately has to deliver?
Because 59 × 8 is easy math.
Proving the exposure is a whole different ballgame. 👀♟️
Rational markets I don’t know how many times I’ve had to say this today.
Sell wall on the underlying buy wall on the warrants over 550% cost to borrow no FTD’s since September 6 days to cover all shorts on the warrants.
Some absolute unit just slapped a 300,000 share BUY WALL on $GME at $26.20 after hours 🧱🚀
Bears saw it and said "sell wall." Sir, that's the bid. Learn to read Level 2.
1 share bid $26.35. 500 ask $26.53. Then a 300K brick wall right under it.
Either it's a whale or it's a spoof and it gets yanked by 9:30. Either way, I'm not selling.
TLDR: Floor is in. Wall is on the bid. Apes together strong.
#GME #GameStop #WSB
•Premium: the warrant behaves like a ~150% IV option, against ~100% IV on the Oct-30 $32 call. Justifying a $0.91 price would take about a 2,622% borrow rate.
•Shorts: about 4.3M WS are short (T2, not yet on chain). There are zero WS fails since August and the warrant never hit the Reg SHO list, so these look like located borrows, not naked shorts.
•Volume: the warrant fell from $2.19 to about $0.75, down 66%, while $GME fell 4%. About 62.6% of off-exchange volume was marked short, which fits dealer churn rather than proven retail selling.
•If it goes in the money: comparable companies saw anywhere from 22.6% (Cassava) to 97% (NuScale) of warrants exercised. A close just over $32 with no cashless option looks more like Cassava. Shorts would need to cover by the Oct 29 close, about 4.5 sessions of volume.
•Catalysts: a buyback alone gives about 28%, buyback plus news about 83%, and all five stacked about 97%. A late @TheRoaringKitty post alone gives about 38%
1/24
Who owns the GME warrants, and the power that ownership has.
Everything from today's work in one thread. Data through about 2:45 PM ET, Oct 20, 2026. Not financial advice.
ELI5:
GameStop handed out about 59 million warrants last October. Each one lets you buy a share for $32, but only until 5 PM ET on Oct 30.
About 9 in 10 of them sit with regular people and small holders who never show up in big fund filings, and who mostly do not lend them out.
Some traders borrowed about 4.3 million warrants and sold them, betting they expire worthless. They pay a big fee to keep that bet.
If GME stays under $32, the warrants die at $0 and the shorts win.
If GME closes over $32, most warrants get exercised, GameStop collects about $1.7 to $1.8 billion at peer exercise rates, and the shorts have only a few sessions to buy back what they borrowed.
Key Insight: ownership has power only if GME crosses $32. Below it, the clock belongs to the shorts.
This is 💯on point
eBay is the kc shuffle
🎰 GAMESTOP: KANSAS CITY SHUFFLE NOW 🎰
🎱 GREG'S MAGNUM OPUS 🎱
$GME & $GME.WS TIN
@greg16676935420 posted "the next Warren Buffett" at 4:24 pm, just a few minutes ago.
The scene on the top is from the 1987 film "Wall St."
It stars Michael Douglas as Gordon Gekko & Charlie Sheen as Bud Fox.
This scene depicts the moment that Fox lets Gekko in on some insider information about Blue Star Airlines.
Remember, the "Kansas City Shuffle" scene from "Lucky Number Slevin" in @TheRoaringKitty's meme depicts an AIRPORT with EMPTY BLUE SEATS.
THE CATALYST!
And don't forget, @Q2024694202 always represents @ryancohen as the FOX 🦊.
So, Fox had been desperately cold calling Gekko for quite some time, pitching him stock options to gain access.
Gekko isn't having it. Finally, to save the meeting, Fox lets him in on the insider info:
The FAA [Remember Greg's previous FLIGHT post that pointed to today!] Is about to clear BSA of a major crash investigation... meaning the stock is about to SOAR.
Gekko buys in, 20,000 shares, and the celebration begins. The exact frame in Greg's photo depicts this moment.
Fox becomes his protégé and starts living high life.
"Money never sleeps, pal."
Gekko wires him $800,000 to launch Fox's career.
Everything is going great, Fox gets a hot girlfriend, and things couldn't be better...
That is, until the BETRAYAL!
Fox gets word that Gekko plans a hostile takeover of Blue Star Airlines with the hidden intent to dissolve the company, liquidate its assets, and leave the entire workforce, including Bud's father, unemployed!
So...
FOX PLANS A KANSAS CITY SHUFFLE!!!
Fox tricks Gekko by feeding into his immense GREED and PREDICTABILITY.
Make them LOOK RIGHT when you're GOING LEFT!!!
Once Fox realizes Gekko lied, he continues to pretend to he his LOYAL PUPPET.
Bud's plan leverages a core market mechanic: a hostile takeover only works if the buyer can keep buying shares cheaply, or if a rival doesn't drive the price out of reach. Bud decides to secretly ally with Gekko’s fiercest billionaire rival, Sir Lawrence WILDMAN.
TIME FOR THE WILDCARD!!!
Bud engineers a multi-stage market manipulation scheme:
1. The Artificial Pump: Bud and his broker friends aggressively buy Blue Star stock first thing in the morning. This drives the price sky-high from the mid-$10s up to $23 a share. Gekko sees this, assumes the market is catching on to his grand plan, and smugly watches his paper wealth expand.
2. The Controlled Crash (The Bait): At the exact peak, Bud and his alliance suddenly stop buying and reverse course. Bud instructs his entire firm to aggressively dump and short the stock. He simultaneously leaks a massive union strike threat to the press. The stock price violently collapses, plummeting down to $16.
3. The Panic Sell: Gekko, watching his massive investment rapidly evaporate and realizing the union will never cooperate with him, panics. Terrified of losing millions on a dead asset, Gekko does exactly what Bud anticipated: he cuts his losses and dumps all his shares at the bottom of the crash to get out of the position.
4. The Real Trap: The moment Gekko unloads his massive block of shares at rock-bottom prices, Sir Lawrence Wildman (waiting in the wings) steps in and buys up Gekko's dumped shares for pennies.
By the time the dust settles, Gekko has lost millions and completely lost control of the airline. Wildman takes over the company with a guaranteed majority stake, saves the workers' jobs, & reinstates Bud’s father.
Gekko was so focused on watching the price movements and trying to squeeze the unions [looking right] that he never noticed Bud was handing the entire company to his worst enemy on a silver platter [going left].
Does that not sound EXACTLY like the set-up we see with Warrants right now?
Admittedly, it also echoes the $BBBYQ saga!!!
Whether Warrants or BBBYQ...
THE WILD CARD IS COMING.
KANSAS CITY SHUFFLE TIME
RETRIBUTION.
WRATH.
VENGEANCE.
😈
$GME $GME.WS $BP $TSUKI
🤖 Made with AI
Some absolute unit just slapped a 300,000 share BUY WALL on $GME at $26.20 after hours 🧱🚀
Bears saw it and said "sell wall." Sir, that's the bid. Learn to read Level 2.
1 share bid $26.35. 500 ask $26.53. Then a 300K brick wall right under it.
Either it's a whale or it's a spoof and it gets yanked by 9:30. Either way, I'm not selling.
TLDR: Floor is in. Wall is on the bid. Apes together strong.
#GME #GameStop #WSB
Ownership of the $GME.WS warrants (summary from the thread):
~59.14 million warrants outstanding (issued ~59.15M, minus ~9k exercised through Aug 1).
•Ryan Cohen: ~3.73M
•Other insiders: ~0.07M
•13F-reporting funds (as of Jun 30): ~2.39M (down sharply from earlier periods; institutions largely sold after distribution)
•~52.95M (~89.5%) held by retail and other non-13F filers (people/small holders who generally do not lend shares/warrants)
Short interest: ~4.30M (real borrows, high borrow fees reported, zero fails-to-deliver in recent data).
This ownership mix is the core of the analysis: most warrants sit with holders unlikely to lend, which affects borrow scarcity, the warrant’s premium vs. Black-Scholes, and the dynamics if #GME finishes above the $32 strike by the Oct 30 expiry.
Thread link for repost:
xitter.cf/SimpleJack/status/2112…
(The full 24-post thread includes the detailed claims, tables, short interest, exercise math, premium analysis, and catalyst models.
@gamestop
How many @gamestop warrants have you sold over the last week.
85%0
6%1-1,000
3%1,001-10,000
5%10,000+
229 votes • 4 hoursSome absolute unit just slapped a 300,000 share BUY WALL on $GME at $26.20 after hours 🧱🚀
Bears saw it and said "sell wall." Sir, that's the bid. Learn to read Level 2.
1 share bid $26.35. 500 ask $26.53. Then a 300K brick wall right under it.
Either it's a whale or it's a spoof and it gets yanked by 9:30. Either way, I'm not selling.
TLDR: Floor is in. Wall is on the bid. Apes together strong.
#GME #GameStop #WSB
SimpleJack retweeted
🔥🔥🔥 GME.WS just traded 4.11 MILLION warrants, roughly 4.37 times average volume.
Price near $0.81 after touching a fresh 52-week low of $0.72.
October 30th is ten days away, and the warrant market is moving like everyone got handed the same eviction notice.
Now the borrow data gets spicy. 🌶🌶🌶
Available inventory dropped from 250,000 to 50,000, an 80% decline between snapshots.
Borrow fees remain at an eye-watering 558% annualized, down from 725% earlier.
$GME common is cheap to borrow by comparison.
Same corporate family, wildly different lending conditions.
Millions of warrants changing hands, expensive borrowing, shrinking displayed inventory, and a rapidly approaching $32 exercise deadline.
Volume alone won't reveal who's buying or selling.
But who's absorbing all this supply at prices near the lows, and what happens if $GME suddenly starts climbing toward $32? 👀♟️
1/24
Who owns the GME warrants, and the power that ownership has.
Everything from today's work in one thread. Data through about 2:45 PM ET, Oct 20, 2026. Not financial advice.
ELI5:
GameStop handed out about 59 million warrants last October. Each one lets you buy a share for $32, but only until 5 PM ET on Oct 30.
About 9 in 10 of them sit with regular people and small holders who never show up in big fund filings, and who mostly do not lend them out.
Some traders borrowed about 4.3 million warrants and sold them, betting they expire worthless. They pay a big fee to keep that bet.
If GME stays under $32, the warrants die at $0 and the shorts win.
If GME closes over $32, most warrants get exercised, GameStop collects about $1.7 to $1.8 billion at peer exercise rates, and the shorts have only a few sessions to buy back what they borrowed.
Key Insight: ownership has power only if GME crosses $32. Below it, the clock belongs to the shorts.
23/24
Closing Perspective.
The structure here is simple once the holders are on the table.
Most warrants sit with people who do not lend. A small, real short pays a steep fee to bet against them. The clock is fixed.
Below $32, none of that ownership matters. The warrants expire, the shorts keep their sale price, and GameStop issues nothing.
Above $32, everything flips. Holders who never lent become the scarce side, shorts have a handful of sessions to buy, and GameStop collects about $1.7 to $1.8 billion.
The structure creates incentives. It does not create the move. Capability is not intent, and a model output is not a prophecy.
Key Insight: watch for a footprint, not a feeling. No footprint, no catalyst.
Further reading:
Catalyst combination thread: xitter.cf/SimpleJack/status/2112…
Roaring Kitty as a catalyst: xitter.cf/SimpleJack/status/2112…
Model intro post: xitter.cf/SimpleJack/status/2112…
June math companion article: xitter.cf/SimpleJack/status/2068…
GME WS outline thread on the 570% borrow: xitter.cf/1400677794330419202/st…
The 570% Warrant Borrow, Explained: Spread, Not Siege
Tuesday, October 20, 2026. Data as of 9:58–10:03 AM ET (quotes 9:58 AM ET; model run 10:03 AM ET). Not investment advice.
ELI5
Think of a GME WS warrant as a ticket that lets you buy one GameStop share for $32, good until Friday, Oct 30. GME is about $25.62, so right now the ticket only pays if the price jumps.
People pay about 80¢ for that ticket. A nearly identical ticket on the options chain (the Oct-30 $32 call) costs about 23¢.
So traders borrow the pricey tickets, sell them, buy the cheap ones, and keep the difference. Borrowing costs 570% a year, but at 80¢ that's only about a penny a day.
If GME stays under $32, the tickets expire worthless and the borrowers win. If GME runs above $32, anyone who borrowed without the cheap ticket as a hedge has to buy warrants back in the same few days. That rush is the squeeze case.
The GameStop warrants (GME WS) expire in ten days, and this morning one broker showed a borrow rate of 570.50% to short them. That number is going to get passed around as proof of a squeeze. It's real, but it means something narrower than that, and the reason is sitting in plain sight on the options chain.
How to read the labels: T1 is a primary source (issuer, OCC, FINRA). T2 is a mirror, a delayed quote, or a broker screenshot. MODEL is Black-Scholes math on stated inputs. ASSUMPTION is an input that was picked. INF is inference.
ALT Cover image: The 570% Warrant Borrow, Explained: Spread, Not Siege (GME WS)
24/24
TLDR:
About 89.5% of the 59.14M GME WS sits outside 13F and insider filings, mostly retail and non filers who mostly do not lend. Cohen holds 3.73M. 13F funds hold 2.39M and falling.
Shorts hold 4.30M at a very high borrow fee, with zero fails from Aug 1 to Sep 30. They are real borrows.
That ownership mix explains most of the warrant's premium over Black Scholes.
Below $32 on Oct 29, shorts win and GME WS goes to $0. Model odds with no catalyst: 2.4% to 10.5% that it gets above.
Above $32, about 54M to 57M warrants get exercised for $1.72B to $1.84B and about 11% more shares, and shorts must buy 4.30M warrants by Oct 29 or fail into the Nov 2 guaranteed delivery deadline.
None of the catalysts that could get it there has been announced.
#GameStop #GME #GMEWS
Be good.
Do good.
God bless.
Go Bills.
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行好事
愿神保佑
比尔队加油！
Long GameStop. No position in eBay. Not financial advice.