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Not all consolidations are healthy. Classic example of consolidation in weakness.

With increasing bad breadth and poor sentiment, the earning reaction might get skewed more. The earnings which may slightly miss estimates may be punished more than required. It is only a matter of time. Here, the techncials may not help much as the fundamentals to digest the drawdown into strong earnings.

Had a minor thigh injury due to workout on Friday. Minor medication with ample rest and hydration was advised for the weekend. Missed the Navratri/Durga puja plans in the weekend. Feeling better today. Just observing the price action today. Hoping to be back at my feet by tomorrow.

Market doesn't have a price anchor. And I am not talking about KRN.

The stock is wicky and volatile. #norecommendation PS 10%

The future looks rosy but near term the growth isnt explosive as the valuations demand. Good call.

Urban Company's management on Q2 expectations( from last concall). Results due today #norecommendation "Management did not give any explicit Q2 FY27 guidance — they have repeatedly said they "refrain from giving any forward-looking guidance" on the core business. But in the Q1 FY27 earnings call (held July 31, 2026) they left several clear directional signals for the September quarter. Reading them together, the message is: core stays healthy but the growth/margin prints will likely look softer than Q1's record, and InstaHelp losses stay elevated — i.e., a bit more pressure, not "better than last." Here is the segment-by-segment picture from the Q1 FY27 call and shareholders' letter. 1. Core India Services — growth good, but margin will be lower than Q1 Abhiraj explicitly flagged that Q1 is seasonally the strongest quarter for margins and that margins have "spikiness" in the AMJ (Q1) and OND (Q3) quarters: "our margins in this business tend to have a certain spikiness in the AMJ quarter, as well as in the OND quarter. And therefore, margins are best visualised yearly." p. 6 The shareholders' letter repeats this: "Q1 is typically our strongest quarter for margins given the uptick in demand" and "supply onboarding and marketing investments largely sit in the preceding quarter." p. 5 p. 7 So on margin, expect Q2 to come off the 6.9%-of-NTV peak — but that is seasonality, not deterioration. On growth, they cautioned that the 29% YoY print was flattered by a weak base: "there's 29% year-on-year growth that we are seeing. The base, which is in the previous, same quarter last year, the growth was a bit muted because of unseasonal rains and monsoons. So there's a little bit of that impact as well, in the acceleration." p. 6 And directly asked whether growth could accelerate further, he said: "Can it grow faster than 29%? Look, I, again, would reiterate that I don't want to get ahead of ourselves. I don't want to set the wrong expectations." p. 14 Read-through: core growth should stay strong/accelerating secularly, but don't extrapolate Q1's 29% and 6.9% margin straight into Q2. 2. InstaHelp — clearly flagged: losses stay elevated (the biggest source of pressure) This is the most explicit forward-looking statement management made: "Adjusted EBITDA loss for the quarter was ₹(132) Cr. We expect losses to remain elevated as we invest to cement our leadership position. In this phase of category development, we are prioritising market leadership over everything else." p. 6 Abhiraj also said the battle will "largely play out in the next few quarters which is why we want to be very aggressive right now." p. 12 On margins: "In the near term, margins will remain under pressure, and we are okay with that. There is aggressive discounting in the market... current pricing is unsustainable for anyone." p. 13 AOV already fell ₹150 → ₹138 and loss/order improved ₹(447) → ₹(346); management said losses will remain elevated even as per-order economics improve p. 6 p. 11. Read-through: consolidated Adjusted EBITDA will stay in loss, and the absolute InstaHelp burn is likely to remain large (possibly similar-to-higher) in Q2. 3. International — reported growth will moderate "As the currency benefit annualises, reported growth will converge toward constant currency levels in the coming quarters; constant currency remains the right lens." p. 9 So the headline 76% YoY number will likely cool toward the ~58% constant-currency rate. Also, the 1.1% margin was dampened by the April UAE disruption; they said the ~2.0% Q4 FY26 margin is more representative p. 9. 4. Native — a specific Q2 timing caveat Management called out a calendar shift that will make Q2 look softer and Q3 stronger: "Diwali fell on 20 October last year but will fall on 8 November this year. As a result, festive demand and e-commerce sale events may shift from the JAS quarter into the OND quarter this year, making it more meaningful to assess Native's growth across both quarters together." p. 10 Read-through: Native's Q2 (JAS) growth could decelerate optically due to the Diwali shift; don't read it as demand weakness. 5. The only formal guidance they retained (unchanged) "We continue to retain our guidance of consolidated and Adjusted EBITDA breakeven by Q3 FY28, and ₹1,000 crores in adjusted EBITDA by FY31." p. 5 International margins expected to reach India's 9–10% steady state, ~2 years behind India p. 9; Native to approach breakeven "over the next few quarters" p. 10; KSA JV to break even over the next few quarters p. 10. Bottom line for Q2 FY27 SegmentManagement's implied Q2 directionIndia Core ServicesGrowth stays strong/secular; margin likely lower QoQ (Q1 seasonally strongest)InstaHelpLosses "remain elevated" — biggest drag; aggressive spend continuesInternationalReported growth to converge toward constant-currency (~58%); margins to normaliseNativeQ2 optically softer due to Diwali shifting into Q3; read two quarters togetherConsolidatedAdj. EBITDA to remain in loss; no change to Q3 FY28 breakeven guidance So: management did not promise a better Q2. Their words point to continued top-line momentum but more near-term pressure on reported profitability — largely seasonal in the core, and deliberate in InstaHelp — with the real improvement back-ended to Q3 FY27 (festive/Diwali quarter) and the breakeven milestone held at Q3 FY28."

I am not sure confident of Nifty going long looking at FII data. Most of it is short covering which is happening. October can be mean reversion on index front to saveguard some large cap IPO. By Nov, we may get clarity on growth names and money will go back there. Also Nov will be US midterm election outcome. That will dictate a lot on the macro front.

Good call. I have exited all my AI positions from US markets ( had only 1 left today) . Sold at a drawdown with US PF falling 6% from March 26 starting size. I was running at >18% profit since March 2026 and I lost all. But I feel relieved. I took this call when the strongest name $DELL showed follow through decline today. I had closed 2025 with a 45% return. That profit I took back to India running the starting capital for FY26. A 6% PF drawdown is what I can still easily recover this FY.

This is a structural beakdown for both KOSPI and US AI names. Begins with a gap down and closes at low. There can be dead cat bounces but for any new uptrend, the structure is far too broken and will need a good amount of consolidation. If US AI spending really goes slow, consider a big hit on US AI export names from India as well. The strongest names leading Indian market throughout 2026 may get dethroned. Let us see who assumes the leading sector now. People are crying out for Large Cap IT names and relatively stable valuations in NIFTY.

Rentry today. Coudn't catch it yesterday when the circuit opened.

Booking today because of earnings tomorrow Market condition not allowing me to play for the big run. Booking hot money from the table.

KOSPI is the prima indicator for US AI proxy trade. Unless this comes back up above 200DEMA, consider this a dead man zone Good to have called this out and minimized my drawdown. I have lost more this year from AI trades in US this year (net is still a good % profit since 2025) so it was better to trim out gradually. I have only 2 positions now.

KOSPI crack adding to the bad macros is just cutting off any growth part in Indian markets. Leaders getting peeled off day by day. The count is just dwindling down. If you want to panic, panic early else start churning to any place where drawdown can be less or raise some cash. Q2 will open some new names or old names for faith restoration.

Never knew a commodity's chart can be so structural persistently.

Study this both fundamentally and techncially. #nobuysellrecommendation #urbanco