Senior Economist @abundanceinst; OG-Core, @oselab, macro/computational/public economics, and outdoor aficionado

Provo, Utah
Joined October 2013
Check out this beautiful web journey created by my @abundanceinst colleague @jared__lambert on the many benefits of open source software--"The Gifts or Open Source". Not only is the content excellent, but the UX of moving through the site is delightful. abundance.institute/opensour…
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Ahead of the @BYU vs @NDFootball game this Saturday, @BYUSportsNation put out this profile on Chris Zorich, former Notre Dame All American and NFL Pro Bowl (alternate) defensive tackle. This one got me in all the soft spots--speech impediment, south side of Chicago, single Mom, and the book The Giving Tree.
Replying to @NDFootball
@NDFootball legend Chris Zorich shares his inspiring story of growing up in Chicago, playing for Notre Dame, his career in the NFL, and the incredible people who shaped his life—especially his mother.
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Okay…… I’m all about “Good Sportsmanship” but the folks at @BYUtv, have taken “Sportsmanship” to a whole different level!!! Imagine my shock when they asked to do an “interview” with me and this was the final product???? Many stories about my life have been told, but none as eloquent as this. @zogwin and Brandon Crow did an AMAZING job showing how Football & @NotreDame changed the lives of my Mom and I 39 years ago - Thank You @BigStoriesBYUtv!!!!!! Go Cougs!!! (and of course GO IRISH!!) #GoIrish 🍀 @NDFootball
Replying to @NDFootball
@NDFootball legend Chris Zorich shares his inspiring story of growing up in Chicago, playing for Notre Dame, his career in the NFL, and the incredible people who shaped his life—especially his mother.
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High five for another Nobel in Macroeconomics. See @JustinWolfers review about today's Nobel Prize in Economics to Robert Hall and Michael Woodford. I've met Hall a few times, and I have loved my copy of Woodford's "Interest and Prices" since 2005. youtube.com/watch?v=hpT6Cxyu…
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Yesterday, I told you Mexico’s total fertility rate is at 1.2. Today, let me remind you that Argentina’s total fertility rate is at 1.05: screenshot from the Argentine statistical agency below. Yes, 1.05. Argentina, in 2014, was at 2.3: a drop of more than 50% in a decade. And before you tell me “it’s Milei’s/the Peronists’/Leo Messi’s fault,” remember the following: of the 236 countries and territories on the planet, 219 have a clear negative trend in fertility. Of the remaining 17, I’d say the trend is negative as well in probably 16, although statistical methods have a hard time picking it up for one reason or another. The remaining one? Israel. So, if you think fertility is going down in your country because of some country-specific reason X, well, you might want to think twice.
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Rick Evans retweeted
Can AI tell if you've built your IKEA furniture wrong? Our new benchmark, the Furniture Assembly Benchmark (FAB), gives models the manual and a photo of a half-completed piece of furniture and asks them to spot the mistake. The top score has gone from 28% to 80% in just 10 months.
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Rick Evans retweeted
AI is getting cheaper more quickly than any other transformative tech in history. At a given level of performance, cost has fallen ~47%/quarter since 2023. That’s 4× faster than DNA sequencing, 6× faster than compute, 18× faster than lithium batteries, and (up to 1973) 54× faster than electricity.
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Rick Evans retweeted
Today we announced the Claude-led discovery of a molecular machine that we suspect could represent a new gene editing mechanism. Its precise function, biotechnological utility (if any), or level of significance is not yet clear, but at minimum it is work I would have been proud to do as a PhD student. The work was done mostly, though not entirely, by Claude: our life sciences team suggested a broad area of research, Claude read through the literature and a bunch of genome data and discovered something interesting, then Claude proposed experiments to verify the discovery and our team carried them out. It’s easy to dismiss this as a one-off or curiosity, but we’ve repeatedly seen a pattern where AI performance in new intellectual domains goes from weak to superhuman in a matter of a few years. In 2023 models struggled to do math at the level of an average high-school student. In 2024 they started to do well on math competitions for the best high-schoolers in the country, in 2025 they started to solve minor open problems, in early 2026 more significant open problems, and in late 2026 they are beginning to solve the top few open problems in all of mathematics. We believe AI for biology is on a similar exponential trend. The main difference between biology and mathematics, of course, is that math can be done purely theoretically, while biology requires experimentation. Some have used this to draw the conclusion that AI’s utility in biology will be limited. We think this is wrong. As we’ve demonstrated today, humans can collaborate with AI to perform the experiments, validate key results in a few weeks and, if necessary, work with the AI to iterate on what they find. Eventually it may even be possible for Claude itself to safely perform the experiments by autonomously controlling lab equipment, with appropriate safeguards in place, but we aren’t doing that today (our lab is also a BSL1/BSL2 facility that doesn't handle materials dangerous to humans). More broadly, biomedical advancement has many stages — from fundamental biology discoveries, to translational research, to drug discovery, clinical trials, and finally the actual delivery of medicines and health care to patients. We are also interested in these later stages, but even simply accelerating the first stage of fundamental biological discoveries has the potential to speed up and broaden the entire pipeline. Improving our understanding of biology and sharpening biologists’ tools can drive forward all of the later stages, for example by identifying new drug targets, finding new therapeutic modalities, allowing for more precise measurement, and speeding up the experimental loop which itself further accelerates our understanding of biology. This will not in itself speed up clinical trial times, but if it succeeds it could greatly increase the number of promising candidates that go into the pipeline — an increase in throughput even though latency remains. In Machines of Loving Grace, I wrote about AI’s potential to “cure most diseases in 5-10 years” — a goal that sounds impossible, but one I believe is just barely possible if AI is applied to every stage of the pipeline. The first step is showing that AI can first help with, and then drive, biological discoveries. Claude’s discovery is the latest in a line of related prior work that goes back decades, beginning with systems like CRISPR, and continuing with discoveries like the bridge recombinase and VIPR in the past few years. Recently, there has been heightened interest in systems based on reverse transcriptase (RT) enzymes, the enzyme underlying the system Claude identified. And most recently, a Stanford team working independently described a novel RT system with an associated non-coding array that is in some ways similar to the one Claude found, though they are distinct systems that evolved independently from each other. I believe that we’re at the very beginning of finding such systems and developing them into powerful tools for biotechnology. I’m proud of the resources Anthropic has invested in accelerating the public benefits of AI through the life sciences, and we’re aiming both to grow our life sciences team and to work with other scientists to extend this approach to a broad range of problems. If you have a proposal for a research collaboration or are interested in joining our life sciences team, please reach out.
Claude has discovered a previously unknown enzyme system hidden in the DNA of bacteriophages. Beside the enzyme’s gene sits a long array of repeating DNA—a structure that looks somewhat similar to CRISPR. We don’t yet understand what this system does, but only a handful of known systems share its features, and all of them are able to cut, copy, and paste DNA. Historically, the discovery of such programmable systems has helped revolutionize medicine. CRISPR, for instance, is now the foundation of genetic medicines. But it will take much more work to learn what this system does, and whether it can be put to similar use. Read more: anthropic.com/news/claude-di…
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Today, Pioneer Labs is announcing our first step towards terraforming Mars. 🚀🌼 With equipment that fits in just a single rocket launch, we can convert Martian dirt, water, and air into enough building materials to construct a small city on Mars. To do it, we made the first microbe for Mars. We found the best microbe on Earth and used evolution to teach it how to source all of its nutrients directly from Martian materials. The first astronauts will be greeted with safe shelter already filled with water, oxygen, and rocket fuel for the return journey. This is the first step toward using biology to make Mars a friendly place for life. It lets us live off the land and helps us build the next great frontier. It's the first of five organisms we need to green Mars ⬇️
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Our latest energy flow charts are out, showing that Americans consumed 94.6 quadrillion British thermal units of energy in 2024. LLNL produces energy flow charts to illustrate where energy comes from and how it moves through the nation’s energy system. livermorelab.info/46OMqHP
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Very practical and insightful video post by economist @JustinWolfers, "How to Survive Inflation". This is practical advice to non economists on how to identify inflation and incorporate it into your decision making. youtube.com/watch?v=uYFsRN5w…
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@JustinWolfers gives 5 practical recs for how normal people can best manage living in inflation: - Translate everything into real terms before you act - Build inflation into your contracts - Shop around more and substitute more - Hold less idle cash - Hedge inflation risk
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I loved this talk yesterday in the National Cathedral in Washington, DC on the US Constitution, freedom of speech, freedom of religion, pluralism, compromise, and peacemaking by @OaksDallinH, President of the @Ch_JesusChrist. youtube.com/watch?v=LdMuJO-r…
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If you don’t study and internalize the history of technology panics, you are going to be vulnerable to a cocktail of cognitive biases that will lead you astray
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Really fascinating article by Paul Goldsmith-Pinkham on trends in AI generated text in economics articles. - AI generated text is up across all classifications of econ papers - Great discussion on what it means for signal of author quality paulgp.substack.com/p/how-do…
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My mathematician friend's insightful comment that prompting another entity for mathematical insight and proofs is at least a century old.
Hardy's greatest success as a mathematician was learning how to prompt Ramanujan.
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I agree that there is nothing new about prompting an agent to solve math problems. But attribution is a big deal. I don't know how true are the misattribution claims in the OpenAI Navier-Stokes solution threads. But this raises the importance of the open models and Hugging Face.
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