Conflict analyst 🅿️ Use 'Search' or Google for sources. DM: Not used.

Netherlands
Joined March 2022
This is just a snapshot correlation. It doesn't prove causation. At the presidential level, you'll find faster real wage growth and job growth under Democratic administrations on average. If wages stay behind, families need multiple jobs to make ends meet.
Each extra branch Republicans hold, of governor, senate, and house, goes with 0.24 points lower unemployment.
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Include a few pictures and we have a textbook:
Rodion Kudryashov, a Ukrainian colonel and deputy commander of the Third Army Corps, has written what I consider an extremely important column examining some of the lessons of the Vivaldi offensive operation. I put together a summary of the key points: • In war, it is assault troops — infantry — who actually retake territory, but the conditions that make this possible are created long before they take their first step forward. • An offensive does not begin when the infantry receives the order to advance. It begins much earlier: with headquarters, commanders, personnel training, logistics, intelligence, unmanned systems, sustainment, and dozens of decisions, most of which never make the news. • The Third Army Corps spent more than six months preparing for Operation Vivaldi. When the corps assumed responsibility for the sector, its first task was to stop the deterioration of the situation and stabilize the forward line. • You cannot plan a complex operation if you do not know where your front line will be tomorrow. In such a situation, logistics remain under constant threat, while assembling a strike force becomes extremely difficult. • A commander must be responsible for the entire cycle — from preparing the individual soldier to achieving results on the battlefield. • A modern commander must process an enormous flow of information, make decisions quickly, understand the capabilities of systems, logistics, intelligence, and adjacent units, while at the same time avoiding the suppression of initiative at lower levels. • An army in which every decision spends hours moving up and down the chain of command will lose to an army that can complete the same process in minutes. • Russia has more manpower, more resources, and a significantly larger industrial base. That means a “unit versus unit” model cannot serve as a long-term strategy for Ukraine. Every unit of Ukrainian resources must produce a greater effect. • Everything cannot be reduced to technology: even ten thousand drones will not create an advantage by themselves if there is no effective command-and-control system behind them. • If a junior commander sees the situation changing but has to go through five levels of approval before reacting, the enemy may simply be faster. Sometimes a few minutes matter far more than one additional piece of equipment. • Flexible command is not just a nice phrase from a military textbook. It can be measured very simply: how much time passes between the emergence of a problem and its solution. • The corps invested not only in equipment, but also in NCOs, officers, staff training, lessons learned, intelligence organization, and planning. • The corps began retaking territory and conducting offensive operations after it learned how to win time — the time between identifying a problem and deciding on a solution, between the decision and the action, and between detecting a target and striking it. • What matters is the system and the command culture: competence must matter more than formal seniority; a strong NCO corps is essential; headquarters must be capable of planning rather than merely transmitting orders; technology must be integrated into a unified system; and logistics must be planned as part of the battle rather than treated as a supporting function. • Most importantly, the goal is to create an environment in which, after every successful or unsuccessful action, one simple question is asked: what can we learn from this today that will make the entire system stronger tomorrow? • Winning one battle is not the same as winning the war. The enemy is also learning, changing its tactics, looking for weaknesses, and trying to scale whatever works. • The colonel ends with a reminder that “Vivaldi” has four seasons. So far, only part of this composition has been heard publicly. The task is to make sure that after Ukraine’s “Vivaldi,” the Russian army increasingly hears Mozart’s “Requiem.” pravda.com.ua/columns/2026/0…
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Should happen EU-wide:
Finland and Ukraine take their defence cooperation to the next level Today, we signed a drone deal with @ZelenskyyUa. The agreement enables, among other things, the joint production of defence materiel. Defence sector companies in Finland are ready, and the joint effort can now get fully under way. Ukraine needs all our support in its fight. At the same time, the cooperation is mutually beneficial. By learning from Ukraine’s experience, we are strengthening our own capabilities.
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Al sinds 2022 waarschuw ik voor Poetins aspiraties in de Baltics en zijn plannen om de NAVO aan te vallen. En steeds vaker hoor ik deze bizarre beschuldiging: "Je wilt dat Poetin aanvalt, alleen maar zodat je kunt zeggen dat je gelijk had." Van mensen die mij al 4 jaar uitlachen met "Je zei toch dat Poetin de NAVO zou aanvallen, wanneer dan?" Nee. Integendeel. Jarenlang ga ik in tegen de heersende opvatting in Nederland. Toen ik hier in 2022 voor begon te waarschuwen, luidde de officiële Nederlandse analyse nog dat Rusland waarschijnlijk niet van plan was een openlijk gewapend conflict met de NAVO te beginnen. Anno 2026 zeggen de Nederlandse diensten nog steeds: gaat niet gebeuren. Dat geeft me geen voldoening. Eerder frustratie. Soms wanhoop. Ik was liever te voorzichtig geweest dan te moeten zien hoe Europa jaren later langzaam tot dezelfde zorgen komt. Want geopolitieke analyse is geen Unibet. Ik krijg geen bekertje als Russische tanks een grens oversteken. Ik verdien geen geld telkens als een voorspelling van mij uitkomt. Anders had ik allang mijn hypotheek afbetaald. Het doel van een waarschuwing, de mijne in dit geval, is niet om achteraf gelijk te krijgen. Het doel is om te helpen voorkomen waarvoor ik al die jaren waarschuw. Mijn doel is altijd geweest om uit te leggen hoe het Kremlin denkt, hoe de hazen lopen daar in Moskou, welke aannames Poetin mogelijk doet over de westerse vastberadenheid, welke waarschuwingssignalen aandacht verdienen en waar onze eigen aannames getuigen van een gevaarlijke zelfgenoegzaamheid en gekke spiegeling van onze denkwijze aan die van Poetin en zijn entourage. Als Poetin de NAVO nooit aanvalt omdat Europa de dreiging serieus neemt, de afschrikking versterkt en zich goed voorbereidt, ben ik dolblij dat mijn waarschuwing voor altijd slechts een waarschuwing blijft. Gelijk hebben is niet mijn doel. Wat ik wil en hoop is helder: dat Europa zo goed is voorbereid, dat ik niet hoef te zeggen: "Ik zei het toch?"
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BLINDED: Ukrainian border guards from the Phoenix unit took out a Russian Nebo-U long-range radar operating in the enemy rear. The cost to the enemy-- 100 million bucks. Blinding an entire sector of Russian air defense-- that’s priceless.
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Russia's internal security service has announced a curfew and restrictions along part of its border with NATO member Estonia. Civilians have been banned from leaving villages after dark, boating on the Narva River, and hunting within 5km of the border.
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It’s been a long road for Ukraine. We went from being expected to fall in a week to hitting russian oil industry hard enough to get blamed for rising fuel prices (unfairly so,) and delivering "fireworks" to Moscow region, the most heavily protected of all, right on their election day. ​Moscow oil refinery this morning🔥
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René Duba retweeted
Election day in Moscow
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Moscow 🤩🤩🤩
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René Duba retweeted
Superb: the only appropriate response to russia’s genocidal acts. 1 Perfectly legal (Art. 51 of the UN Charter). 2 This shows that Ukraine can/will win the war. 3 A formidable demonstration of the unparalleled military capabilities of Kyiv, the key security provider of tomorrow.
Our long-range responses had a very significant impact in the Moscow region last night. One of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and the aggressor’s logistics facility were hit. These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine. The systems used included FP-1, RZ-100, MICH-2000, Palianytsia, Vendetta, Liutyi, Bars, Flamingo, Sichen, and Pelican. I thank our warriors for their accuracy: the Security Service of Ukraine together with the Unmanned Systems Forces, the Special Operations Forces, the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, and the Foreign Intelligence Service. Sanctions were also imposed on a facility in the Voronezh region. Moscow must end its brutal war and choose peace instead of building layered rings of air defense at the expense of other regions. Steps toward de-escalation are on the table – in energy and food security. What is needed is political will. I thank everyone who is strengthening Ukraine’s long-range capabilities. I am grateful to everyone who complements our long-range responses with responses through sanctions. Glory to Ukraine!
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HORRIFYING: Hackers have breached the IRGC’s network and found out what we already knew. It is now CONFIRMED that at least 100,000 Iranians were murdered by the Islamic regime during the January protests. One of the deadliest massacres in history.
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Some 6,000 people — 200 of them children — are right now starving to death in a humanitarian catastrophe orchestrated by Vladimir Putin's Russia. The town of Oleshky and its surrounding district in the occupied part of Kherson Oblast exist under Russian occupation as a prison — and it is rapidly turning into a death camp. No one is allowed in or out. The last food delivery was on May 26. Medical supplies are close to non-existent. kyivindependent.com/editoria…
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Russia is losing billions of dollars to Ukrainian deep strikes and middle strikes. Those are hundreds of missiles, drones, vehicles and mercenaries the enemy army will never receive. We are systematically dismantling the material base that feeds Russian aggression. Tangible losses to the funding of the enemy's war machine will force the Kremlin to the negotiating table on fair terms.
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Putin is having a disastrous September. According to Ukraine’s General Staff, Russia suffered an estimated 26,790 personnel losses in the first 18 days of the month. That’s nearly 1,490 a day. If that pace continues, the total will reach around 45,000 by 1 October. It would surpass July’s 42,860 and August’s 42,020, making September Russia’s worst month of 2026 so far, and one of its highest-loss months of the full-scale invasion.
Russia has suffered an estimated 3,490 casualties in just two days Under any normal military standard, that would be classed as catastrophe. This isn’t sustainable warfare.
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Yabloko was the only Russian party that campaigned for peace with Ukraine. It was removed from the ballot. Local representatives arrested on fabricated charges. What should that tell Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner about Putin's assurance he wants peace? BBC: 1/2
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Yabloko candidate Grigory Grishin was accused of "extremism" because of having mentioned the name "Navalny" in the past. What more does the WH need? Blindfolds? Earplugs? Remember the tobacco executives who testified that they believed nicotine was not addictive? (1994) 2/2
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After the 1980s most NATO countries spent less and less on defence. What does that tell us about Putin's tale of aggressive 'NATO expansion' threatening Russia? The story doesn't match the numbers.
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Explosions and a fire are reported in occupied Mariupol. #Ukraine
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🚨🚨🚨IMPORTANTE!!!🚨🚨🚨 è ufficiale, la Russia ha cercato di uccidere Boris Johnson, Carl Bildt (l'ex Primo Ministro svedese), il Consigliere per la Sicurezza Nazionale del Regno Unito Jonathan Powell e consiglieri per la sicurezza di diversi Stati membri dell'Unione Europea. Secondo le ricostruzioni questi si sarebbero salvati solo perché, per ulteriore sicurezza, il treno era stato fatto partire prima. Se il treno fosse partito nell'orario previsto, la Russia avrebbe ucciso l'ex Primo Ministro del Regno Unito, l'ex Primo Ministro della Svezia e i consiglieri per la sicurezza nazionale di diversi Stati membri della NATO. Se non è una linea rossa questa, cosa può esserlo? L'Inghilterra a questo punto dovrebbe reagire, duramente e senza esitazioni, a questo chiaro atto di guerra.
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Replying to @francescoproia
L'ho tradotto.... IMPORTANT!!!🚨🚨🚨 It’s official: Russia has attempted to assassinate Boris Johnson, Carl Bildt (the former Swedish Prime Minister), the UK’s National Security Adviser Jonathan Powell, and security advisers from several European Union member states. According to reports, they were only spared because, as an extra precaution, the train had been brought forward. Had the train departed at the scheduled time, Russia would have killed the former UK Prime Minister, the former Swedish Prime Minister and the national security advisers of several NATO member states. If this is not a red line, what is? At this point, Britain should respond – harshly and without hesitation – to this clear act of war. Translated with DeepL.com (free version)
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