Senior Editor & Elections Analyst of the nonpartisan @CookPolitical Report w/ @AmyEWalter. Nerd for 🗺️ maps, ⛷️ ski slopes & 🎻 trad tunes. Has seen enough.
Washington, DC
Joined September 2009
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Dave Wasserman retweeted
👀 NEW Siena poll in NY-21 (Retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik's district):
Blake Gendebien (D) 46%
Anthony Constantino (R) 42%
Undecided 8%
Sponsored by local news outlets NBC5 (WPTZ), Times-Union & WAMC, conducted by Siena from Sept 30-Oct 6 among 496 Likely Voters, MOE +/- 4.6%.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
How will we know if 2026 is a wave election in the House? For @amyewalter, the real sign of a wave year won’t be how many seats Republicans lose, but rather the types of seats that change hands.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
The GOP challenge isn’t that MAGA fans stay home; 2/3 of MAGA R’s in Fox poll said they were “extremely motivated” to vote. But, non-MAGA R’s excitement to vote was net 20 pts lower. Why? These are the R’s most unhappy w/ economy + Trump handling of it.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
.@SpeakerJohnson previews the midterm convention: "The president's gonna look right in the camera and say, I am on the ballot. Because even though his name isn't, right, his administration, his legacy, the America-first agenda is."
Dave Wasserman retweeted
In WI, Hong was lumped in with El-Sayed as a progressive insurgent, but she lacked his candidate skills/campaign infrastructure; in MN, Flanagan helped the most by Craig’s Laken Riley vote. In CT, Larsen lost b/c of age, not ideology.
Last night's primary results were a reminder that candidate and campaign quality matter – a lot.
Read our post-primary analysis from @amyewalter, @JessicaTaylor and @ercovey.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/2…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
If you went through ‘06 cycle, this year feels like déjà vu.
In ‘06 at this point, W. Bush approve = 37%. Trump at 38%.
Generic ballot in Sept. of ‘06: D+6.5, Generic Ballot now: D+6.5
In both years: Unpopular war, Members mired in sex scandals. (Sherwood, Foley then; Miller, Mills now).
Dave Wasserman retweeted
🎯 The CPR team goes live at 8pm ET to talk primaries in Virginia, Missouri, Michigan, Kansas & Washington. It’s one of the last major primary nights of the 2026 cycle, and it’s a big one.
Watch on Substack: open.substack.com/live-strea…
Watch on YouTube: youtube.com/@thecookpolitica…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
One “benefit” party committees had with the no-coordination rule; they avoided hard conversations w/ incumbents who wanted ad cover. “I’d love to help, but that’s the decision of the folks behind the I.E. wall”. No longer…
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Rs can’t control Trump — nor count on economy bouncing back to 2018 level
Instead, GOPers have to convince voters that their Dem opponent is a bigger risk than a rubber stamp for the president.
Or as @danpfeiffer wrote “The wild card isn't the environment — it's us.”
Even if an end to hostilities holds in the Middle East, the GOP’s biggest challenge of 2026 remains: Trump’s persistent inability to focus on voters’ concerns about affordability and the cost of living.
Read @amyewalter's latest column:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
THE MINGLE PROJECT: CNN SPECIAL
PREMIERING TODAY AT 9 AM & 1 PM ET on CNN.
Watch Here ▶ youtu.be/7_2Ra-DjV_4
What if America's biggest problem isn't politics—it's isolation?
Michael Smerconish brings together leading thinkers, researchers, physicians, and social commentators to examine America's loneliness epidemic, growing polarization, and the disappearance of the shared experiences that once connected us.
Drawing on decades of research and conversations with some of the nation's leading thinkers—including Robert Putnam @RobertDPutnam, Charles Murray @charlesmurray, David Wasserman @Redistrict, Scott Galloway @profgalloway, Debra Soh @DrDebraSoh, Tami Benton, and Ezekiel Emanuel @ZekeEmanuel — this special examines why Americans increasingly live, work, socialize, and even think apart from one another.
The conversation starts now. Join us on YouTube.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Iowa is now the center of the political universe.
Read our post-primary analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/2…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
🎯 Mark your calendars! @Redistrict and the CPR team goes live TONIGHT at 9m ET to talk primaries in California, Iowa, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and South Dakota.
Tune in on Substack: open.substack.com/live-strea…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
How this age of extreme gerrymandering is transforming American politics — via @patrickdmarley @oliviacgeorge wapo.st/4dQQ4UG
Dave Wasserman retweeted
April @CookPolitical Battleground District Survey, 25% of Rs & 23% of Indies said they liked Trump’s policies, but not behavior; trust R’s more than D’s on economy/culture issues. But, when Trump is center stage, the harder for substance to come through.
This week was just the latest reminder of Trump’s “indulgent” presidency: a self-centered approach that is only making a tough midterm environment that much harder for congressional Republicans.
Read @amyewalter's latest column:
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Virginia’s Supreme Court struck down a plan that would have redrawn the state’s congressional maps to benefit Democrats. In an opinion, a majority of the justices said a referendum passed by voters last month was unconstitutional.
It’s a major setback for Democrats, as both parties wage a war of mid-decade redistricting.
@IAmAmnaNawaz speaks to David Wasserman (@Redistrict) for more.
Dave Wasserman retweeted
Seems like SCOVA's main holding is that, contrary to the Democratic lawyers' argument, an election starts when people start voting
Dave Wasserman retweeted
New GOP friendly maps in AL/TN/LA/FL can help R’s a bit, but they can’t change the political environment. Even if those maps pass legal scrutiny AND Dem map in VA gets struck down, most realistic scenario is that R’s net 4-5 seats from redistricting. cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
