Publisher & Editor-in-Chief, Cook Political Report with Amy Walter. Cycling enthusiast. Lover of all things summer.
Washington, DC
Joined June 2009
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Control of SEN essentially coming down to 2 groups of voters: 1) D’s/I’s in ME/MI who want to vote against Trump but aren’t sold on the Dem nominee; 2) R’s in deep red states that aren’t motivated to vote, aren’t happy w/ Trump but also don’t like Dems.
Did a dog conduct this study?
A surprising new study finds that people who sleep near their dogs don’t experience disrupted sleep. If anything, the University of Toronto researchers discovered, we humans are the ones disturbing our dogs’ sleep. nbcnews.com/health/health-ne…
“With opinions of Trump and the political environment pretty well locked in, Republican hopes of limiting big losses in the House and holding onto a slim Senate majority hinge on the possibilities that: 1) polling is failing to capture discouraged GOP voters who, while not happy with Trump, will show up on Election Day and support Republican candidates; 2) Republican campaigns are effectively identifying and targeting their low-propensity voters in ways that are not being reflected in the survey data; and 3) undecided voters, like the “doubly disenchanted” my colleague David Wasserman identified, break decidedly in Republicans favor.”
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
The voters who’ll decide just how big the blue wave this fall, writes @Redistrict, are the “doubly disenchanted” - frustrated with Trump’s handling of economy, but still not sold on Dems. Here are the key things to know about this critical group of voters.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Amy Walter retweeted
New @CookPolitical: with less than 40 days to go, the most critical voters are the "doubly disenchanted" - the ~17% of Trump disapprovers who aren't (yet) in the Dem column. The critical pain point for them? Energy/gas prices. My full analysis: cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Well deserved!!! Woot!
Always proud to play for the press team, but especially yesterday! Bad News Babes 22, Congress 16 in an energetic high-scoring @CWSoftballGame that raised more than $800,000 for the @YSCBuzz. (Believe it or not, I hit several RBIs, made an out at home and was named Press MVP.)
And played it really, really well!!! An extra thumbs up from me for watching the game from a Torchy’s Taco bar!
Another 2006/2026 parallel: in ‘06 Rs wanted Bush to fire Rumsfeld ; 2026 Rs calling for end of war in Iran
Amy Walter retweeted
If you went through ‘06 cycle, this year feels like déjà vu.
In ‘06 at this point, W. Bush approve = 37%. Trump at 38%.
Generic ballot in Sept. of ‘06: D+6.5, Generic Ballot now: D+6.5
In both years: Unpopular war, Members mired in sex scandals. (Sherwood, Foley then; Miller, Mills now).
Can the deluge of cash help R’s w/ GOTV in red SEN states? As the late @posglen would say: “can’t win on turnout if you’re losing on message.” The top issue in this election is cost of living and R’s don’t have an effective message for it.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
Voters competitive CD’s polled for @CookPolitical see election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Indies prefer candidate who will “reform entire system” vs serve as a “check on Trump”by 39pts.
New poll of 37 most competitive CDs (ie, races that will decide control of Congress) for @CookPolitical by NewRiver Strategies & GS Strategy Group. These CDs, on average, voted for Trump by 5pts - now prefer a generic Dem by 2 pts. (7 point swing to Dems since ‘24). Shows obvious pathway to majority for D’s, as well as a ceiling (universe remains the 25 or so R-held seats that voted Trump by 10 pts or less).
But, to me, the most interesting finding was that these voters see this election not just as a referendum on Trump (who’s underwater by 16pts), but as a repudiation of the entire political system. Among indies, just 20% prefer a candidate to be a check on Trump - 59% want a candidate who will change system overall.
This also suggests that these voters would want a Dem-led Congress that focuses more on an agenda that tackles corruption + institutional rot than one that focuses solely on Trump & his overreach.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/s…
Dear food/beverage industry: just because you CAN make it pumpkin spice doesn’t mean you NEED to make it pumpkin spice.
chicagotribune.com/2014/11/0…
Sean, I raise you a Blake Farenthold with Patrick Flanagan…
"Sean, how weird can things get in wave years?"
"Well, let me tell you..."
xitter.cf/christinawilkie/status…
In recent era, midterm “waves” have been relegated to purple seats/states. Pushing into deep partisan territory is rare. This cycle the combo of tariffs, rural health care cuts, & diesel fuel gives Dems their first real chance to win back rural/farm state voters. But, if they come up short in this environment, hard to make the case that these seats/states can come back in play anytime in the near future.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/n…
New polling conducted of TX Hispanic voters for @CookPolitical and @Univision finds Trump’s ‘24 coalition in shambles. Almost 1 in 5 Trump ‘24 voters now disapprove of POTUS. Talarico leads Paxton by 33. In Rio Grande Valley, Dems lead generic by 14.
cookpolitical.com/analysis/h…
