$NBIS Weekly Review 10/12:
Bloody Hell of a Week. Nothing has changed about management, the products, the roadmap.
Here are the facts.
🟦 $CRWV Debt FUD
- Yes, $CRWV is far more levered than other players
- No, they aren't going to implode @JensenHuang
- Do I have anymore tears left to cry? Also no.
🆕 @nebiustf Day 0 support for 3 new models
- Muse Spark Open, Nemotron 3.5 Super VL, Beam
- Team is genuinely cracked beyond comprehension
🧑🤝🧑 $NBIS x Era Compute Partnership
- GPU marketplace as an additional distribution
- More players improve spot market liquidity
- Potential to extend Nebius software stack onto 3P bare metal infrastructure
🇳🇱 200MW Rotterdam Site with VOLT
- First capacity available late 2029, early 2030
- Volt also building in Hyderabad and Dubai. Guess where else Nebius is building?
🇬🇧 $NBIS x UK AI Lab Partnerships
- Secured compute deals with multiple emerging UK AI labs, including some still operating in stealth.
- Contract values undisclosed. Will be at 2027 compute rates. Potentially for short-term scale training.
🎓 $NBIS Academy x $NVDA
- Co-developed courses agentic AI, Physical AI next
- Nebulizer will be taking this course
- Joint workshops at GTC Berlin
🎉If you made it to the end...
@EndicottInvests @BKad2005 and yours truly had our inaugural $NBIS Weekly stream this week! Recording in the comments. Tune in each Thursday 7PM EST!
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$NBIS @romanchernin previously said that while the stock fell 40% in a week, the company had its best ever sales week, because customers realized they could run production inference economically. Here we are again and while revenue machine keeps churning....
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CoreWeave's debt, explained simply, because I like to speak plainly:
Secured debt = the mortgage. Backed by the house. The GPUs and the contracts they serve are the collateral.
Unsecured debt = the credit card.
Backed by a promise.
Everyone is panicking that $CRWV UNSECURED yield to MATURITY hit 15%
But a credit card rate spiking doesn't mean the house (or in this case the GPUs/data centers) lost value.
The secured lenders or the ones who underwrote the actual GPUs and contracts aren't selling here.
Now zoom out, because this is analogous to the entire AI market in wrapped up in a single company.
Trillions in secured, asset-backed debt are loaned against GPUs, data centers, power contracts, and signed capacity deals with hyperscalers. This money doesn't care about stock prices or investor sentiment.
It gets paid if the contracts pay. (Sounds pretty similar to $next if you ask me…)
Below that in line is unsecured debt, a bet on the companies themselves.
On top of everything is the equity, a bet on the story.
So when you see scary headlines about "AI debt," ask one question: which layer?
Yields spiking on unsecured debt and equities dropping while secured debt sits calm simply means the market is repricing the story.
The assets are fine.
The buildout keeps getting funded because the secured debt holders still believes in the collateral.
The day that changes… well the day secured lenders start questioning GPU values and contract quality, is the day the AI trade actually breaks and we should run for the hills.
Until then, volatility at the top of the stack (unsecured, equities) is just the shock absorbers doing their job.
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Market corrections are normal.
On average, you’ll see:
-5% dips: every 4 months
-10% corrections: every 12 months
-15% drawdowns: every 18 months
-20% bear markets: every 3.5 years
-30% crashes: every 10 years
Volatility is the price you pay for long-term returns.
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$NBIS
Absolutely zero (in numbers 0!!!) gut-ache over the current price movements.
Do I just have an iron gut from years of bouldering? Probably.
But looking at the daily wins from Nebius and the broader AI market, the fundamental reality is undeniable, regardless of what the chart says.
The facts speak for themselves:
- GPU rental prices have skyrocketed over the last 60 days.
- 3 new day-0 open models dropped on Token Factory (Reflection Beam, Muse Spark Open, NVIDIA Nemotron 3.5 Super VL) bringing serious choice and capability directly to builders.
- Fireworks AI just validated exactly what we already knew: hitting $1B ARR in under 6 months, projecting $1.6B by year-end.
Token Factory is going vertical.
And that is precisely why the short-term price action doesn't bother me at all.
My investment horizon shows nothing but green checkboxes.
If the market gives me a sale on top of constantly improving fundamentals, I'll gratefully take it.
Long $NBIS
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CANTOR FITZGERALD SEES MAJOR BUYING OPPORTUNITY IN COREWEAVE ($CRWV )
Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated its Overweight rating and $176 price target on CoreWeave, calling the recent selloff an attractive entry opportunity.
Despite debt yields reaching 15%, analyst Brett Knoblauch argues the market is underestimating CoreWeave's position.
Nearly all 2027 capacity is already contracted, while Nvidia has agreed to backstop unsold capacity.
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Just some words of emotional support for your SK Hynix, $SNDK, $MU fanclub.
$DELL CEO on memory, suggested: "It's a 4 year problem because there's just not enough supply"
Factories take about 4 years to build, meaning new production would emerge 2029 or 2030.
and that semiconductor shortages could worsen in 2027 stating:
"I do think it gets worse next year in terms of demand and supply".
I think it's strange we're getting unprecedented forward visibility with memory... as $GOOGL and richest hyperscalers seek LTAs into 2035.
And a major sector crash as well over durability/financing concerns.
$GOOGL is now discussing deals to extend their memory LTAs through 2035 from KeyBanc channel checks.
Samsung already has 70% of their capacity allocated through 2031, and this move would suggest a more durable cycle for $MU, $SKHY, and the others.
They also expect HBM prices up 80% to 100% in the Q1 2027.
Having all your capacity potentially allocated out into 2035 via LTAs would ease a lot of memory durability fears.
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According to Korean media, the CXMT 4F² DRAM scare is getting WALKED BACK.
China's CXMT said it would unveil a server DDR5 chip using denser 4F² cells by the end of the year and that news helped crush Samsung and SK Hynix this week.
KB Securities says the DRAM process gap between Korea and CXMT is still about 5 to 7 years, yields, cost and customer qualification matter far more than a launch preview.
Rosenblatt called the near term threat a PAPER TIGER and CXMT also still struggles to get advanced EUV tools because of United States export rules.
Samsung's CTO said at SEDEX that the company is working hard on 4F² itself and mass production for Korea's big chipmakers is still expected later this decade.
Competition from China is real but treating an unveil like mass production is how you end up with a panic sell.
$MU
According to Korean media, one of China's top chip analysts says China is still about 3 years behind Korea in HBM.
Liu Yang, deputy head of research at Shenwan Hongyuan Securities, told Chosun Biz the gap is about 2 years in DRAM and even shorter in NAND.
He called 3 years in HBM the optimistic case while some people inside China think it is longer.
The biggest bottleneck is lithography because Korea and Taiwan can buy the tools they need while China cannot.
He said China is at the stage of holding the gap steady and also said China's AI industry sees its models as 2 to 3 years behind the United States.
That is a very different picture from the one driving this week's selloff in Samsung and SK hynix.
Thoughts on memory:
Anyone who thinks compute will stay in shortage while memory slides into oversupply must be smoking something. Compute and memory are destined to tighten together or deflate together. One cannot die while the other survives.
By the same logic, the pods shorting memory and going long HDD are out of their minds. How do you think HDD isn't joined at the hip with memory? You really think HDD stays safe if this cycle rolls over?
In the end, all of this comes down to nobody having conviction about what happens after 2027. Historically, we have watched P peak one to two quarters before supply ramps, then Q expands and the entire profit pool collapses. But everyone forgets that this cycle runs on nonstandard products, unlike PCs, smartphones, and general purpose servers, and that it was triggered by factors different from past cycles.
This is because of the boomers who still see memory as an industry where you make a killing in the upcycle and lose your shirt in the downcycle. These self proclaimed veterans view memory through the lens of their past experience, and since they drive the market and set the stock prices, memory trades at such a low valuation. What I keep saying is that a sharp collapse like in the past is impossible. A gradual decline is possible. But even if Samsung and SK Hynix margins were cut in half from current levels, they would still trade at a P/E in the teens. That is still roughly half of HDD valuations.
Personally, I think that as memory prices fall, other sources of demand will absorb the supply at each step down. In particular, I expect personal AI demand, led by local AI, to emerge. Looked at another way, for local AI to take off, the hyperscaler driven spike in memory prices has to be brought under control. At current memory prices, local AI can never diversify.
Just as mainframes gave way to PCs and the cloud gave way to smartphones, each time carrying the cycle from P into a Q expansion phase, I think this AI cycle will also move from frontier labs to local open source AI. Based on these historical precedents, I believe local AI will take over the memory cycle from the frontier labs and carry memory demand.
I am not saying memory prices will hold for more than a decade. Memory P will fall at some point. But what is different from the past is that new consumer devices and new consumer demand, such as open source driven local AI, will support the floor for memory.
So the market right now keeps discounting these stocks out of fear of a memory peak nobody can time. This discount is being driven by boomer investors who dismiss the idea that AI supports the downside and keep pushing the view that earnings will collapse and the trough will revert to past levels too. My point is that this is completely wrong.
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BREAKING: Tesla’s new Roadster: 0–60 in under a second.
It also flies, does barrel rolls, and drives upside down.
xitter.cf/KanekoaTheGreat/status…
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AI FUD usually happens 4-5 weeks before earnings season.
I’m seeing a pattern.
Gee I wonder why.































