Pylaugh retweeted
If I was long $MSTR, I'd be worried.
NFA
$MSTR is showing a MASSIVE hidden bearish divergence on the 3-day chart.
The last time we saw this same setup, the stock went on to fall 58%.
Now we’re seeing it again, and there’s a lot more going on here than just the divergence.
We also have:
• A completed 2.618 Fib extension off the ABC (not shown).
• Gap resistance sitting overhead.
• A broken bump-and-run trendline (yellow line).
But when you have multiple technical signals lining up like this, it’s something I believe deserves attention.
tradingview.com/x/ktMOo843/
Pylaugh retweeted
Building index-tracking assets on top of options instead of debt
ethresear.ch/t/building-inde…
What if the use options as the base of defi, instead of CDPs and liquidations? So instead of extreme price movements creating a sharp and global "you get liquidated" effect, instead your exposure to the index diverges quadratically from your preferred exposure in a smoother way?
A key benefit is getting rid of the need for instant oracles, and instead making everything work on top of "slow oracles" (ie. the type that prediction markets use)
This design has a significant downside - the need to do regular rebalancing - and an open question of whether and how this rebalancing can be made slippage-resistant enough. But it's worth considering and trying IMO. I would feel much safer holding algostables inside something like this, than in something that depends on an oracle that has to give real-time answers (and therefore could be tricked into giving wrong real-time answers with no time for human recourse).
Pylaugh retweeted
AI has been built on one vendor’s stack for too long.
AMD’s GPUs now offer state-of-the-art peak compute and memory bandwidth — but the lack of mature software / the “CUDA moat” keeps that power locked away. Time to break it and ride into our multi-silicon future. 🌊
It's been a blast working with the amazing @_williamhu, @Drewwad and team; we present HipKittens!
Pylaugh retweeted
Michael Burry is wrong here.
$GOOG 7-8 years old TPUs are still running at 100% utilization according to the Google Cloud VP.
$NVDA A100s sold in 2020 are still running, and H100’s won’t retire before 2027.
Hyperscalers, may be understating D&A, but not as much as Burry says.
unavailable
Pylaugh retweeted
$AMD current market cap is $420B
This year their annual revenue will be $34B
The last time $NVDA market cap was $420B was in July 2022
Their annual revenue that year was $26.91B
In 2024 $NVDA had $60B annual revenues and they started the year with a $1T market cap and ended 2024 with a $3T market cap.
Next year $AMD annual revenues are projected to be close to $50B, what do you think will happen to $AMD market cap? 🤔
We are going to the moon! 🚀
Pylaugh retweeted
Gemini deep research thinks AMD 10 years price target
“Our 10-year forecast for $AMD projects a base case price target of $1,250 by 2035. We believe continued data center market share gains and a strategic position as the key alternative in the AI accelerator market could propel it to a $2 trillion valuation.
Bull case: $1,800
Bear case: $600”
Pylaugh retweeted
Congratz to all $AMD Shareholders. 🔥🔥🔥
We now have both Dr. @LisaSu and $TSM confirmed 2nm supply.
Meaning @AMD will have much much higher allocation than prior wall street estimated. Is much more positive than my own projection.
It is always a good idea to be conservative when it comes to projection.
TAIPEI -- Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. on Thursday said it plans to speed up its time frame for producing advanced 2-nanometer chips in the U.S., while also signaling further expansion beyond the $165 billion it has already committed to investing in America, according to company Chairman and CEO C.C. Wei.
"We are preparing to upgrade our technologies faster to N2 [2-nm] and more advanced processes in Arizona, given the strong AI-related demand from our customers," Wei told investors and reporters in an earnings conference. Previously, TSMC had said its third plant in the U.S. state will produce 2-nm chips before the end of the decade.
Wei also said TSMC is close to securing a second large plot of land close to its Arizona site to provide more flexibility in response to the strong, multiyear AI demand.
"Our plan will enable TSMC to scale up to an independent Gigafab cluster in Arizona to support the needs of our leading-edge customers in smartphone, AI and HPC [high-performance computing] applications," he said. Gigafab refers to chip facility clusters that can at least churn out more than 100,000 12-inch wafers a month.
BREAKING $AMD& @OpenAI Dr. @LisaSu confirmed $TSM 2nm MI450 vs $NVDA 3nm On Yahoo🔥🔥
Process Node Advantage: AMD's hybrid approach uses 2nm for the XCD (enabling higher transistor density and efficiency) while employing 3nm for the Active Interposer Die (AID) and Media Interface Die (MID), as noted by GPU leaker Kepler_L2. This gives AMD a massive edge in power efficiency and performance-per-watt over NVIDIA's uniform 3nm design for Rubin.
Timeline and Partnerships: The MI450 is targeted for a 2026 launch, aligning with AMD's deepened ties to OpenAI, which will deploy up to 1GW of MI450
Competitive Context: Dr. Su emphasized the MI450's role in AMD's AI push, framing it as a "no excuses" alternative to NVIDIA's dominance. AMD's strategic leapfrogging in node technology to challenge NVIDIA's ecosystem lock-in.
TSMC's 2nm (N2) Process and Allocation
TSMC's N2 node, featuring Gate-All-Around (GAA) transistors, promises 10-15% speed gains or 25-30% power reduction over N3E, with up to 1.15x logic density. Mass production begins H2 2025, with initial yields at ~60-70% (improving to 80%+ by mid-2026).
Estimated for MI450 is : 1.3m-2.7m MI450 from June 2026 to June 2027.
MI450 is to adopt the breakthrough "secret weapon" design(patented) to gain 30-50% Latency Reduction, Higher Memory Bandwidth, 40-60% power reduction in interconnects and 1.5x faster token generation.
OpenAI Greg Brockman President of OpenAI @gdb also confirmed MI450 Superiority on Infrencing, aligned with all my analyses for years, and recently appreciated in stock price action after this 6GW deal.
This is years of partnership, this didn't happen in just 1 day. OpenAI along with $META $ORCL $MSFT $GOOGL and $AMZN are all big supporters of Dr. @LisaSu to go Open-Source Software(ROCm 7) for years.
MI450 Rack Solution will come with 72 units and ROCm 8, as Forrest Norrod, AMD Executive VP said ROCm 8 is expected to be on Par with CUDA in 2026. He sees this upgraded software & hardware package as fully capable of "scale out", allowing millions of GPUs to be deployed for high-performance data center GPU with 1700-1900w energy efficient per unit.
Or 1GW= 1,000,000,000/1800w= 555,555 MI450
Implying 555,555 MI450 x $55,000=$30.5B
$NVDA 2026 Rubin is expected to sell for $70-$90k
Pylaugh retweeted
This is bullish for $AMD.
It looks like the money spent on AI infrastructure is circulating among a few companies like $MSFT, $NVDA, and $ORCL.
While all of them show both inflows and outflows, $AMD is just entering the system, with only inflows for now.
If it can grow its order book without having to inject capital into its customers for liquidity, it could become even more profitable than $NVDA.
Long $AMD.
Pylaugh retweeted
$AMD - AMD CEO SAYS UNDER OPENAI DEAL TO TAKE STAKE IN AMD ALSO DIRECTLY TIED TO INCREASING AMD STOCK PRICE MILESTONES, WITH THE FINAL TRANCHE VESTING AT A PRICE OF $600 PER SHARE.
Pylaugh retweeted
We've been investigating aster volumes and recently their volumes have started mirroring binance perp volumes almost exactly
Chart on the left is XRPUSDT on aster, you can see the volume ratio vs binance is ~1
Chart on the right is XRP perp volume on hyperliquid, where there's some decorrelation
Aster doesn't make it possible to get lower level data such as who is making and filling orders, so until we can get that data to verify if there's washtrading, aster perp volumes will be delisted
Pylaugh retweeted
As we mentioned back in April, AMD is in war mode and has developed a new sense of urgency. With this urgency, their software engineers are working harder and smarter than ever to fix bugs and improve the ROCm user experience, all with the goal of matching the CUDA experience.
Some of AMD’s software engineers are not just working 996 or even 997 anymore, they are on 007. 0am in the early morning through 11:59pm in the late evening.
Pylaugh retweeted
If you believe in a company long term, buying at or below the 200-week SMA is a no-brainer. $AMD 🧠
