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Uber is one of the only companies where the CEO has recently bought the stock. In almost every other case all CEOs do is sell.
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The “Google is behind” story is over. Googles new AI model so powerful they’re running it by the US government and cyber security partners before releasing to the public. $GOOG
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Barclays estimates a free consumer agent costs 10x the free ChatGPT tier to run. Winning means being willing to burn something like $40B a year in extra compute to give the product away. That's why Meta is the favorite, and it's not about whose agent is smarter. Meta and Google are the only two with ad businesses printing enough cash to subsidize a free tier indefinitely. Apple could afford it but won't spend it. OpenAI basically has to charge. The winners will be whoever can afford to lose the most money the longest. $META $GOOG
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Nike's EPS are LOWER than they were a year ago. What happened? $NKE
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Texas Roadhouse is selling more food than ever. Q2 revenue up 11% to $1.68B. Comps up 6.2% on real traffic growth. Average weekly sales over $175K, a record. EPS: $1.85. Down from last year. Beef inflation ran 7% and ate the entire gain. Restaurant margin fell to 16.4%. The chart says it all: the bars go up, the line is flat for over a year.
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A live look at what's happened since Muse's release...
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Agentic commerce is a bloodbath for the middlemen Everyone's hyped about AI that buys stuff for you. But think about what gets skipped. No Google ad gets clicked. No Pinterest board gets scrolled. Nobody opens Booking com. The agent just buys the thing. YTD: The Trade Desk -66% Chewy -44% Pinterest -31% Booking -23%
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Everyone's staring at Meta's $140B capex bill. Look at the cash engine underneath. Q2 free cash flow collapsed 91% to $784M. But that same quarter revenue grew 28% to $60.8B. The business isn't broken, the cash is just being reinvested. Off trough FCF/share of $16.08, at 30% growth on a 40x multiple: 2027: $944/share 2028: $1,190/share 2029: $1,500/share $META
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Amazon Ads in 2027, according to Wall Street: Revenue: $90B Operating profit: $63B One vertical could generate 44% of Amazon’s total operating profit. $AMZN
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Meta is roughly 11.5% of Bill Ackman's portfolio. He forecasts: 22% annual EPS growth through 2029. Apply the average P/E ratio: That's $1,260/share. $META
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Dev Kantesaria's framework: Over time, price follows free cash flow per share. If AppLovin keeps compounding FCF/share, today's price could be a ~50% discount to intrinsic value. $APP
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Broadcom is a cash flow machine. Wall Street estimates FCF/share to compound well over 50% annually. Assign the current multiple: 2027: $536/share 2028: $804/share 2029: $1,240/share $AVGO
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Bill Ackman estimates Netflix can compound EPS by 19% annually. He's not alone. These are the projections from top firms: 1. Pershing Square: 19% CAGR 2. JPMorgan: 24% CAGR 3. Evercore: 20% CAGR 4. Jefferies: 20% CAGR Assign a 25x multiple, and it returns 22% per year. $NFLX
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Bill Ackman said he's looking for "robust durable growth companies that hold a moat around them". Here are 7 businesses that fit this description: 1. Netflix - $NFLX: 8/10 MOAT Growth: 19% CAGR Ackman Position: Yes
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6. Mastercard - $MA: 8/10 MOAT Growth: 13% CAGR Ackman Position: Yes
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7. Amazon - $AMZN: 9/10 MOAT Growth: 21% CAGR Ackman Position: Yes
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