Senior Fellow, @CFR_org ; Sole Proprietor, Hart Policy Associates; Prof. Emeritus @ScharSchool , @GeorgeMasonU

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Joined August 2016
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A mind-blowing graphic
China will export 30x more car than it imports this year. In 2020, the ratio was 1:1.
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David Hart retweeted
Net of China's surprising gold import surge, East Asia's surplus is on a fast track toward $2 trillion -- propelled by China's auto and machinery sectors and the chip exports. Crazy number. Massive change v 2023, let alone the pre-pandemic era 1/2
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7/8 What to do: strengthen federal analytical capabilities, incentivize early commercial production, invest in use-inspired RD&D, empower early adopters, and collaborate with allies and partners.
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6/8 Federal policy has begun to address these challenges across numerous agencies since the pandemic, but it remains fragmented, inconsistent, and insufficiently focused on innovation.
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5/8 Getting these technologies fielded at scale requires overcoming stubborn challenges: socially embedded relationships, interdependence across & within supply chain tiers, high upfront costs & risks, & pervasive information gaps. Profile: @SilaNanotech silanano.com/
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4/8 Supply chain innovation should expand & diversify resource supplies, reduce use of vulnerable inputs, substitute abundant materials, recover value from waste through recycling, & apply AI to discovery, production & product design. Profile: @NthCycle nthcycle.com/
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The most surprising outcome of the Strait of Hormuz crisis to date is that the price of oil "has not risen nearly as much as many analysts expected," writes CFR expert @ProfDavidHart. "The biggest reason is that China cut its fossil fuel imports massively in the months since the closure." "That answer begs another question: Why would China, the global champion of clean energy technology, do that? Why wouldn’t it maximize the pain felt by fossil fuel consumers worldwide, thereby boosting the sales of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles?" "Many political analysts have proposed answers to those questions," Hart writes. "China values stability generally. China wants to be seen as the adult in the room in global politics. China might want to do the Trump administration a favor in the hope of a reciprocal benefit in the future. China might even prefer continued Republican control of the U.S. government." "All these speculations need to be seen in the light of a cold, hard economic fact: China exports more than cleantech."
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Great thread....
1/ Trump's OSTP just dropped "A New Golden Age" — a big vision for reforming US science: less bureaucracy, more risk-taking, DARPA-style bold bets. Sounds great. Except it's landing inside an administration whose actual actions look nothing like it. whitehouse.gov/science/#cove…
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President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated the wind and solar tax credits at the heart of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. A year on, the law’s preserved incentives for geothermal, advanced nuclear, and grid-scale storage may do more to cut global emissions than the credits it eliminated, argues expert @ProfDavidHart.
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David Hart retweeted
The scale of China's transformation into an auto export powerhouse is easy for Americans to miss -- given the protected US market. It is an incredibly rapid transformation of the global economy.
YTD Chinese exports of passenger cars are up an astonishing 50%. Exports of battery EVs are up 48%. Exports of plug in hybrids are up 100%. Crazy numbers for what is already the world's largest auto exporter 1/
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The second, by @CSpandagos of UNH, analyzes eligibility for public programs that alleviate energy poverty. He finds that traditional metrics exclude a large fraction of the energy-poor population. cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/fi…
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The first, by Prof. Erick C. Jones Jr. of the University of Texas identifies intermediate processing as the missing link in securing the battery minerals supply chain. Jones' brief relies on modeling and lab experiments to reach its conclusions cgs.umd.edu/sites/default/fi…
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