The most surprising outcome of the Strait of Hormuz crisis to date is that the price of oil "has not risen nearly as much as many analysts expected," writes CFR expert @ProfDavidHart. "The biggest reason is that China cut its fossil fuel imports massively in the months since the closure." "That answer begs another question: Why would China, the global champion of clean energy technology, do that? Why wouldn’t it maximize the pain felt by fossil fuel consumers worldwide, thereby boosting the sales of solar panels, batteries, and electric vehicles?" "Many political analysts have proposed answers to those questions," Hart writes. "China values stability generally. China wants to be seen as the adult in the room in global politics. China might want to do the Trump administration a favor in the hope of a reciprocal benefit in the future. China might even prefer continued Republican control of the U.S. government." "All these speculations need to be seen in the light of a cold, hard economic fact: China exports more than cleantech."

President Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act eliminated the wind and solar tax credits at the heart of President Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act. A year on, the law’s preserved incentives for geothermal, advanced nuclear, and grid-scale storage may do more to cut global emissions than the credits it eliminated, argues expert @ProfDavidHart.