
Economics & Policy. Founder of @AsiaDecoded. Previously @OxfordEconomics, @StanChart, @ICICIBank, IMA Asia
Singapore
Joined April 2009
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The spillover risks for the Asian economies and industries caught in between US tariffs and Chinese overcapacity is large. I write for @ProSyn.
project-syndicate.org/magazi…
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
“The way a middle income country thinks about its poverty challenge is different from how a poor country does.”
In his latest article for Mint, Dr. Niranjan Rajadhyaksha (@CafeEconomics ), Executive Director at Artha Global, examines what the World Bank’s latest poverty estimates reveal about the changing nature of poverty in India. While extreme poverty has fallen sharply, the figures also point to the need for a higher poverty benchmark and a more targeted approach to addressing the deprivations that remain.
Key insights from the article:
- India needs to raise its poverty benchmark: With extreme poverty declining, the $4.2-a-day international poverty line is now more relevant for measuring India’s progress than the lower $3-a-day threshold. India also needs an updated domestic poverty line.
- Poverty is increasingly concentrated in specific regions and forms of deprivation: The Gangetic belt accounts for a disproportionate share of poverty, while inadequate sanitation remains a major dimension of multidimensional deprivation.
- Poverty is becoming more transient, calling for a different social protection response: Many households are pushed below the poverty line by sudden shocks such as illness, climate disruptions or debt repayments, making insurance, credit relief and timely income support increasingly important.
India’s poverty challenge has not disappeared; it has changed. As the country moves towards middle-income status, measuring and addressing poverty will require benchmarks and policy responses that reflect this new reality.
Read the full article: artha.global/op-ed/opinion-t…
Like clockwork
Indonesia's GDP grows 5.5% in Q3, helped by government spending
asia.nikkei.com/economy/indo…
“Tensions between Micron and its workers flared this year after employees demanded higher compensation, seeking more of the record profits generated from the Al build-out.“
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
The US trade deficit in computers and chips (the chips are generally imported in box, generally from Mexico, Vietnam or Taiwan) is quite bigger than the trade deficit in everything else, but it is getting close!
1/
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Thailand will raise excise tax on imported EVs to 35% from 10%. China is by far the largest source, accounting for 96% of imports so far this year.
asia.nikkei.com/business/aut…
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Markets don’t know yet what to make of the Blue storm. For AI-led Asia, Democrats approach to governing AI will matter more than what Trump does on tariffs.
Markets don’t know yet what to make of the Blue storm. For AI-led Asia, Democrats approach to governing AI will matter more than what Trump does on tariffs.
"India went the other way, its share down from 28% to 15% with $30 bn of foreign equity outflows this year. Indonesia has lost $5.6 bn this year, $0.9 bn of it in October as its MSCI status came under review."
EM lost a net $42 bn of foreign portfolio money between October 1 and November 3 because doubts about AI returns hit Taiwan and Korea. Foreign equity outflows reached $31.8 bn in Taiwan and $14.6 bn in Korea in October, more than the $34 bn EM total for the month on daily data.
In dollar terms this already beats the full 90 days after the start of the GFC and the 2013 taper tantrum in the IIF daily database. Of the stress episodes I compared, only COVID and the March 2026 Iran war shock were bigger, at close to $100 bn each.
Korea and Taiwan went from 36% of EM ex China free float market cap at the end of 2024 to 59% in September on rallies of more than 60% this year. Foreigners sold $127 bn of Korean and $37 bn of Taiwanese stocks through September anyway. Benchmarked money held far more North Asian tech by default, and the AI earnings season gave it a reason to sell.
India went the other way, its share down from 28% to 15% with $30 bn of foreign equity outflows this year. Indonesia has lost $5.6 bn this year, $0.9 bn of it in October as its MSCI status came under review.
I expect the selling in Taiwan and Korea to run through November, and I will call it over only after four straight weeks of inflows into both. After March, the pause in foreign selling of Korean stocks lasted about a month.
Thailand will raise excise tax on imported EVs to 35% from 10%. China is by far the largest source, accounting for 96% of imports so far this year.
asia.nikkei.com/business/aut…
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
If you're pondering the nexus between today's US midterms (Nov 3), the sudden revival of “intensive” US-Iran negotiations in Doha, and crude plunging 11% from seven-month highs, consider three questions:
⁉️ If there were no midterms, would Washington and Tehran really have pivoted so dramatically from months of stubborn stalemate to a sudden burst of intensive diplomacy?
⁉️ Why is EVERY report of diplomatic “progress” — whether citing US, Iranian or Qatari sources — silent on the one detail that actually matters? How exactly are the two sides proposing to get past their fundamentally conflicting red lines?
And finally --
⁉️ What's more plausible? That Washington sees a burst of diplomatic optimism -- and lower oil prices -- as useful ahead of the midterms? Or that the elections have somehow magically produced a meeting ground between two adversaries stuck for months on opposite sides of a seemingly unbridgeable chasm?
The timing is remarkable. The absence of substance is even more remarkable.
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
A piece focusing on India that draws on this research. A four-step policy agenda to help raise India’s credit rating.
livemint.com/opinion/online-…
@AshokaUniv @livemint
Examining whether sovereign ratings are consistent with economic theory, from @ojblanchard1, Daniel Leigh, and @MishraPrac nber.org/papers/w35956
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
What is life like at different levels of GDP per capita?
In this new chart I visualised it for 12 different dimensions.
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Dornbush Law:
👉things take longer to happen than you think they will,
💥and then they happen faster than you thought they could.
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Vietnam to overtake Indonesia in per capita GDP in 2026: IMF s.nikkei.com/4BDOlNu
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Indian diesel is evidently more precious than AI compute right now.
From the US to Indonesia, top emissaries are flying around the world to lock up supplies from India, the world's 2nd largest diesel exporter.
In response to rising demand, Govt-owned refiners like IOC, HPCL & BPCL will increase diesel production capacity next year by around 16.5 million tons.
Overall refining capacity will go to 300 million tons a year from about 267 million tons currently, before reaching 400 million tons in a few years, India's energy minister said today.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called India a refining superpower while visiting Jamnagar the week before, where the world's largest single location refinery is located.
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Which is what they should do.
Domestic investor capital gains taxation depends on domestic taxation rules for all assets.
Foreign investors will pay tax in their home country and should not be made to pay capital gains tax in India.
My worry through is that they will do the opposite.
Remove tax on domestic investors
Keep tax on foreign investors
🙃
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Why are foreign investors selling Indian stocks when the economy is growing.
The answer goes beyond corporate earnings to the returns investors keep after taxes, currency losses & the risks they take, @AjitDayal2 of @Quantum_MF told me in an interview on @the_core_in.
He makes an interesting comparison on how India has lagged China on GDP growth but is ahead on stockmarket returns.
youtube.com/watch?v=9pjUryOa…
Priyanka Kishore retweeted
Saudi Arabia to store crude oil in Singapore from second half of 2027 reuters.com/business/energy/…





















