We just published the Prediction Index Annual Report 2025–2026. 👉predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Over the past year we tracked 268 projects, $120B+ in cumulative volume, and 115k+ live markets across the prediction market ecosystem. The report is a collection of essays from builders in the trench, researchers, traders - those who dive into market structure, research process, trading execution and see how programmable probability is reshaping our politics, culture, and trading in real-time. We cover topics like competitive market design and infra, monetization innovation, proxy hedging, oracle, liquidity and more. Read the full report here: predictionindex.xyz/annual-r… Huge thanks to the main contributors who made this possible: @lililashka @MartonBorsos @ericsports from @predictionindex @probabilitygod @Inframarkets @MarcinRedStone from @redstone_defi @justigor from @functionspaceHQ @AliHabbabeh from @xomarket @JustinHerzig from @EstablishtheRun @gianlucapanz from @predikapp @drealblaise @hanami_foresee And appreciation to frens who supported the thinking, reviewed drafts, and shared ideas along the way: @NathanWorsley_ from @Euphoria_fi @dimahorshkov from @trylimitless @thib0ault from @Polymarket @meleemarkets

We heard prop trading for stock prediction markets is coming soon too 👀

Prediction markets went from under $5B to over $45B in monthly volume in less than a year. PredictionIndex now listing over $164B in total reported volume across the top five platforms alone. Bullish about the next quarter Check 👉 predictionindex.xyz/ecosyste…

we love seeing creative takes on prediction market mechanics!

Waves of new projects has launched over the past few weeks. New listings dropping soon 🔥🔥🔥

Bug fixed: Volume numbers are now live again on the Prediction Index ecosystem table. This will be refreshed daily on predictionindex.xyz/ecosyste… We show trade volume instead of notional. Notional counts every contract at $1 face value (so when a trader buys one contract at 40cent, it counts as $1). Trade volume counts what people actually paid and trade on the platform. Daily check for @Polymarket @Kalshi @opinionlabsxyz @trylimitless @0xProbable @SX_Bet @xomarket @MyriadMarkets @Overtime_io @predofficial @seerdexmarkets Building a prediction market and want your numbers listed or updated? send us a dm!

Introducing Chaos Index: Our first index is a read on war and peace in geopolitics, built from live prediction markets on @Polymarket and @Kalshi. *If you already know how other indices work, skip this paragraph. An index is a single number that turns a messy system into an easy format that you can compare across time. The famous Gini coefficient takes a whole income distribution and turns it into one number for inequality, so economists can track whether a country is getting more or less equal without rereading every bracket. VIX does the same for options, one number for expected volatility. As the industry gets more mature, prediction markets will need that same kind of consolidation. We build Chaos Index from 72 live contracts. There are two simple gauges: Escalation: how likely things are to get worse Peace: how likely things are to get better Read them as a pair. If peace falls faster than escalation, the world is freezing. If both go up, markets see more fighting and more chance of a deal. Another thing to notice is the spread between machine and money. We call it the Chaos Spread. It tells you whether the machines see more danger or more calm than the money. Positive means the models are more worried. Negative means they are calmer. Over time you can see who was more right. We think this is interesting because most trades today are already a mix of human judgment and machine help. So the blind machine line is the only way for us to see what the models think on their own, and how much machine opinion is already sitting inside the market price. A bit on methodology. We take live binary geopolitics markets on @Polymarket and @Kalshi, then label and weight them by liquidity, with caps so one crisis cannot dominate the whole index. We chain the history so new listings or resolutions do not contaminate the dataset. Then we ask three frontier AI models (GPT, Claude, and Grok) the same questions with no access to market prices. Each model only gets the question, today’s date, and the official resolution rules. Chaos Index is our Index 01. We hope it will be useful and welcome and feedback from the community. Check it out daily at predictionindex.xyz/chaos-in…

With news that the CIA chief is visiting Moscow, our Chaos Index feels more relevant than ever. We’re updating the dataset and analysis across 57 live markets from @Polymarket and @Kalshi, covering everything in the horizon. The index compares what the money believes with what frontier AI models predict, then measures the gap between them. Methodology and fresh analysis drop tomorrow. 🔥

Prediction Index v2 is live 🪶 We've been mapping the prediction market ecosystem for a while now. 315+ projects, $110B in volume tracked. As the market matures, we think the volume story is well told. The more interesting story is calibration, or how well these markets actually read the world. @Kalshi studied 2M+ of its own markets and found events priced at 70% happen about 70% of the time. @Polymarket's published accuracy runs 90% a month out (98.5% four hours out). In v2, we turn PredictionIndex into a prediction market research desk and AI-native index provider. Our indices read what the crowd is pricing and ask frontier AI the same questions. We cover geopolitics, finance, compute, gaming, sports and culture. In the coming weeks, for traders, expect research, video, contrarian views, plus the takes we'll probably regret later. For builders, we'll publish deep dives into a handful of projects we think are worth watching closely. All of it, in your inbox 👉 predictionindex.xyz ps. sound on for teaser 🔥

There’s aura in quietly building Great project from @saurav_tweets

never a better, easier time to raise. let's go star.fun/scout/predictionind…

something exciting is coming!