Building @functionSPACEHQ | allergic to binary opinions
Joined January 2023
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Igor retweeted
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Slightly upsetting that I’ll never convey as much depth, nuance or insight as a ten-minute children’s fairytale.
When one of the incumbent leaders does something that is directionally what you’re already doing….Bullish.
Difference is, we’ve built down at the primitive upwards, to make experiences and payout formats better and more engaging than this…
Looking forward to usage data on these over the next few months
Igor retweeted
What type of people are successful on Kalshi?
We commissioned an independent third party to study our top traders. Here’s what they found:
Top traders are not limited to privileged or financial backgrounds.
-79% went to public school
-They are over 2x as likely to have worked retail or service jobs than on Wall Street
-65% are self-taught
The majority of top traders: :
-Actively seek out primary documents for research
-Actively seek out conflicting sources to challenge their beliefs
-Outperform the public on numeracy tests
The findings echo the foundational work of Philip Tetlock: the best forecasters are not subject matter experts. They tend to be otherwise-ordinary people who are intellectually humble, willing to do research, and think probabilistically instead of emotionally.
We co-hosted a boutique event last night in Singapore. Just PM traders, builders, deployers and friends.
For us, being based a bit far away (Australia), having that time to meet people IRL and discuss the projects we spend all our time on is super valuable.
The backgrounds of people entering the space are increasingly diverse. Not many are purely “on-chain”. Most are coming from major American and Asian funds, trading desks and traditional financial markets.
There’s seems to be a growing sense that “crypto” is a useful part of the stack, rather than an ideological pursuit in itself.
@functionspaceHQ
the functionSPACE team will be attending @token2049! We'll also be hosting a prediction markets night with @MoiraiResearch.
Please reach out to our team on telegram if you are attending the conference.
Luma link to event below ⬇️
Igor retweeted
The problem I understood with 95% prediction market projects failure is that they target the same CT traders who post the content.
What about Reddit, Telegram, Discord servers, or DeFi dashboard partnerships?
The same set of KOLs would get you the same set of traders which are trading on Polymarket or Kalshi. Try something else.
Key takeaways from the Thought Leader Summit hosted by @Maven11Capital and co.
• We’re early.
• Are we all competing for the same customers? No. The pie is huge, and PMs are still focused on net growth. Almost any event can have a market. Liquidity will keep growing.
• Major unlock for institutions: how do we free up capital from full collateralization?
• Permissionless builder codes show where PMs can go as liquid market layers. Think Phantom x Hyperliquid.
No where but up.
Igor retweeted
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Season 1: The Human Benchmark is live.
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Igor retweeted
Arbitrum just enabled Programmable Markets
Blockchain-based protocol @functionspaceHQ goes live on @Arbitrum.
The protocol is creating an on-chain primitive to engineer programmable markets for any metric measurable in the physical world or cyberspace.
With this architecture, developers can integrate custom prediction and outcome-settlement functionality into consumer apps, games, and company interfaces without requiring users to navigate third-party exchanges.
The technology utilizes the scalability benefits of Arbitrum’s rollup solution, ensuring constant liquidity and instant settlement for customized event contracts.
Igor retweeted
functionSPACE is launching on @arbitrum!
Incentive design maxxing
If Republicans win the House of Representatives and the Senate in the 2026 Midterm Elections, I’m going to give all adult citizens in the United States of America, $5,000! Thank you for your attention to this matter, and I look forward to signing those checks!
Readers added context they thought people might want to know
This $5,000 “Trump Dividend” promise was first made in Sept. 2026. Similar prior DOGE and tariff check pledges have not been paid out. It would cost ~$1.2 trillion and require congressional approval.
pbs.org/newshour/polit…
washingtonpost.com/politics/2026/…
Igor retweeted
Want early access to the apps being built on functionSPACE and a spot in our private beta markets?
What’s weird is seeing takes on why things are the way they are in markets, and what that means, often with a complete absence of first principles when it comes to PMs.
“Prediction market traders want…”
If you assessed PMs in 2017-19 you could’ve concluded “people don’t want them.”
Now it’s “people only care about price”, “they’ll only trade on…”
Wait a second, half a decade ago we barely had retail scale for event contracts. We’ve had almost no time to discover what people actually want to trade, or how.
Financial products don’t arrive fully formed around pre-existing preferences. People build things, experiment, firms find new ways to abstract, transfer and speculate on risk, users respond, new use cases emerge etc.
Futures, options, perps etc all evolved through different paths. There isn’t one predetermined user, use case or product form.
PMs are incredibly early. Treating what people trade today as some fixed expression of what they want from them seems completely backwards.
If the FCA loosens the UK retail ban on US-style event markets, adoption speeds up.
International regs are upside. Most numbers still don’t have a native market.
'UK weighs lifting ban on US-style prediction markets. The FCA has held talks with trading platforms after a surge in Britons bypassing UK rules to use American sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket'
thetimes.com/business/compan…
Let’s catch up in Singapore and talk pricing the future… numerically
the functionSPACE team will be attending @token2049! We'll also be hosting a prediction markets night with @MoiraiResearch.
Please reach out to our team on telegram if you are attending the conference.
Luma link to event below ⬇️