Prediction Markets Ecosystem Landscape 100+ projects today. But how does this map change in 2026? Tag your favorites. Tell us what we missed 👇

Mick Bransfield warned prediction market startups to think carefully about sharing information with journalist Dustin Gouker, claiming he's a paid consultant to the Massachusetts Gaming Commission while the state is suing Kalshi, Polymarket, and Robinhood. Gouker pushed back hard. Here's the back and forth: — Gouker fired back that the Massachusetts Attorney General is suing Kalshi, not the Massachusetts Gaming Commission, correcting Bransfield's framing of who's actually in the litigation — Gouker says he's done "exactly one hint of work" for the MGC on prediction markets, and it was just an explainer — 95% of his consulting work for the MGC focused on sportsbook customer limiting, which resulted in the MGC mostly adopting his recommendation that sportsbooks need to be more transparent and notify customers when they limit them Hate so see two legends (@MickBransfield and @DustinGouker) in the prediction market news space going at it like this. Hope they work it out.

Retail traders on prediction markets are losing more than sports bettors, according to a new report from Citizens JMP Securities. The median prediction market user returned -8% since July 2025, compared to -5% on sportsbooks, because prediction markets don't ban winning players, leaving retail directly exposed to pros and market makers. Here's the breakdown: — Median ROI for prediction market users was -8% from July 2025 through mid-March, versus -5% for sportsbook users, per transaction data from analytics firm Juice Reel — Only traders moving $500,000+ on prediction markets were profitable, with a median ROI of +2.6%. Every cohort below that was negative, dropping to -26.8% for users trading under $100. — Sportsbooks weren't profitable for any cohort either, but the losses were less steep across the board — The key difference is that prediction markets don't limit or ban winning players. Retail users are providing liquidity directly to professionals and market makers instead of betting against a house that filters out sharp players. — Two professional bettors on a Citizens JMP call said prediction markets are more attractive precisely because retail provides the liquidity — Gaming CEOs aren't worried about cannibalization. DraftKings, Flutter, and BetMGM all said they see minimal revenue impact, with Citizens JMP estimating around 5%. — The real threat is generational. 24% of Kalshi users are under 25 with a median age of 31, compared to just 7% under 25 on DraftKings and FanDuel where the median age is 35. — Kalshi logged 6.3 million downloads from September 2025 through February 2026, while FanDuel and DraftKings downloads fell 18% and 13% year-over-year — Roughly 90% of DraftKings revenue comes from users over 30

Two early Kalshi employees are raising $35 million for a venture fund called 5c(c) Capital that will back startups building prediction market infrastructure. Both Kalshi CEO @mansourtarek_ and Polymarket CEO @shayne_coplan are investing, which is notable given their companies compete directly. Here's what you need to know: — 5c(c) Capital is targeting $35 million and plans to invest in roughly 20 companies over two years, with the first close expected within a month — The fund is led by @eightyhi (early trader tied to Kalshi's market making) and @Nostroah (Kalshi's former head of operations), with former SIG quantitative trader @chexmatrix as advisor — Backers include @pmarca through Moneta Luna, Ribbit Capital founder Micky Malka, and former Multicoin managing partner @KyleSamani — The fund will focus on market making, prediction market indices, and broader infrastructure around event contracts — The name references Section 5c(c) of the Commodity Exchange Act, the clause titled "New Contracts, New Rules," signaling a bet on regulated prediction markets winning long term

🚨 BREAKING: Kalshi just raised over $1B at a $22B valuation, doubling its $11B valuation from December. Annual run rate is $1.5B. This comes the same week Arizona's attorney general filed criminal charges against them for allegedly running an "illegal gambling operation."

Arizona just became the first state to file criminal charges against Kalshi. Attorney General Kris Mayes filed 20 misdemeanor counts in Maricopa County Superior Court today, alleging the prediction market ran an illegal gambling business and took unlawful election bets from Arizona residents. Until now, state pushback stopped at cease-and-desist letters and civil injunctions. Here's what happened: > Kalshi tried to get ahead of the filing by suing in federal court for a temporary restraining order. U.S. District Judge Michael Liburdi denied it, which is a rough early signal for Kalshi's argument that CFTC jurisdiction blocks state criminal prosecution. > 16 counts fall under Arizona's general gambling statute, which prohibits accepting bets on "any unknown or contingent future event." 4 more target election wagering under a separate statute that criminalizes bets on election outcomes. > The four election counts are the most legally dangerous. They sit under a statute aimed at protecting election integrity, not regulating financial products, and preempting that with a derivatives license is a much harder argument to make. > Transactions cited in the filing are tiny. A $30 bet on Commanders vs. Giants, $1 player props on Jaxon Smith-Njigba scoring the first Super Bowl touchdown, a $2 bet on J.D. Vance winning the 2028 presidential election, a $1 bet on whether the SAVE Act becomes law. > "Kalshi may brand itself as a 'prediction market,' but what it's actually doing is running an illegal gambling operation and taking bets on Arizona elections," Mayes said. Kalshi called the charges "paper-thin arguments" and maintains its contracts fall under exclusive federal jurisdiction. > Massachusetts secured an injunction on sports contracts, Nevada applied state gaming rules, and now Arizona has gone criminal. Each state is building on the last, and the enforcement tools keep escalating. > If these charges survive a motion to dismiss, AGs in other states with similar statutes will have a roadmap for filing criminal cases of their own.

Stripe cofounder John Collison and Matt Huang sat down with Kalshi founders Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara for a nearly 77-minute Cheeky Pint episode. They break down the CFTC lawsuit victory, explosive growth, how real market making works on the platform, and the vision to turn prediction markets into the NYSE of events. Here's the breakdown: > Kalshi revenue grew 11x in six months, with February trading volume alone hitting $10.4 billion > Sued the CFTC after years of blocks and won in late 2024, unlocking U.S. election markets > 95%+ of liquidity comes from 2,000+ small peer-to-peer market makers and superforecasters (not Wall Street) > One Ariana Grande superfan cleared $150k trading music chart markets and used it to pay off student loans plus buy a car > Building the "New York Stock Exchange of events" with futures, options, and swaps on Oscars, GPU supply chains, weather, and more > AI agents are already trading live. Kalshi is launching research benchmarks to test forecasting models against humans > Strict insider trading rules: 5x profit fines, account bans, and pushing to ban members of Congress from betting on legislation they influence > Exploded from basically one big market (Super Bowl) last year to over 10,000 markets today

Parity compiled accuracy data across 181,333 resolved prediction markets on Polymarket and Kalshi, broken down by category and how far out from resolution the price was measured. It's the most comprehensive look I've seen at how well these markets actually calibrate. Here's the breakdown: > 69,630 Polymarket and 111,703 Kalshi markets analyzed, with accuracy measured from 1 month out to the final 4 hours before resolution > AI/Tech is the most accurate category on both platforms. Polymarket hits 94.3% a week out and 93.7% in the final 4 hours. Kalshi hits 95.1% in the final 4 hours. > Markets are generally most accurate in the final hours, but not always. Kalshi's Financials category (47,418 markets) is actually more accurate a month out (94.4%) than in the final 4 hours (89.3%). > Weather on Kalshi shows the biggest improvement as resolution approaches, jumping from 80.5% a month out to 96.8% in the final 4 hours across 31,400 markets > Stock Index markets on Polymarket are the least accurate at the 1 month horizon (82.5%) but climb to 89.7% in the final hours > Entertainment markets are surprisingly well-calibrated at every time horizon, with Polymarket holding steady between 90.9% and 93.5% from 1 month to 4 hours out > Politics is one of the weaker categories on both platforms. Polymarket political markets sit at 85.9% even in the final 4 hours (14,096 markets). > Kalshi's Health category (525 markets) is the only one where 1 week out (95%) beats the final 4 hours (93.9%) > Polymarket data sourced from Dune Analytics, Kalshi data from their Historical API, generated March 17, 2026

Cboe Global Markets just unveiled an innovative prediction markets framework that expands beyond simple yes-or-no bets by introducing a "payout zone" for partial payouts when traders are directionally correct. This move aims to redefine outcome-based trading with defined risk, starting with a Mini S&P 500 Index contract to let users wager on daily closes of the U.S. equity benchmark. Here's how it works: > Framework delivers three potential outcomes per contract: $0 payout, partial payout in a defined zone, or full $100 payout > First product is a Mini-SPX prediction market contract for expressing views on where the S&P 500 Index closes at end of trading day > Traders can take traditional yes/no positions or use the payout zone to mitigate losses while benefiting from being close without perfect accuracy > Product uses a traditional options wrapper for fixed-return outcomes and cash settlement, akin to standard index options > Launch planned for second quarter of 2026, pending regulatory approvals > Aimed at boosting engagement in event contracts by offering more choice and reduced all-or-nothing risk > @Cboe positions this as a patent-pending innovation to lead the growing prediction markets space

🚨 NEW: Kalshi partners with @CashApp to make it easier to fund your account.

🚨 BREAKING: Polymarket announces partnership with Palantir and TWG AI to build a sports integrity platform ahead of a potential shift to federal regulation of prediction markets.

🚨 BREAKING: Polymarket seeks new fundraising round that would put the company near a $20B valuation.

🚨 JUST IN: Kalshi’s Prediction Market Conference this month will bring together researchers, practitioners, and enthusiasts to explore the latest developments in prediction markets, forecasting, and collective intelligence.

Kalshi just filed a rule with the CFTC that formalizes how prediction markets settle when the person at their center dies. The new Rule 6.3(e) takes effect March 17 and pulls what used to be ad hoc fine print on individual contracts into the permanent rulebook. Here's the TLDR > Default settlement is the last traded price before the death. If trading was "materially affected by the circumstances giving rise to the death," Kalshi can roll back further to the last price before those circumstances became known. > An Outcome Review Committee can step in and set a fair settlement price when no last traded price works All determinations under the rule are final and not subject to review, giving Kalshi broad discretion while shielding it from trader disputes > The filing explicitly frames the change around minimizing "perverse incentives," acknowledging that person-centered prediction markets can create situations where traders profit directly from someone's death > Kalshi's "leave office" contracts (the WLEADEROUT series) already had death-specific carveouts, but those varied market by market. The new rule generalizes the approach across any contract where the subject is a natural person. > The exchange can halt or pause trading if it "reasonably believes" a death has occurred, is imminent, or may be unfolding > The filing follows backlash over how Kalshi handled markets tied to Iran's Supreme Leader > Kalshi says participants were split on how it previously resolved these situations, and the recurring demand was for clearer written guidance The rule makes settlement mechanics more transparent, but the backlash over the Khamenei markets was never really about settlement mechanics. Kalshi is betting the controversy was about process rather than principle.

🚨 BREAKING: Forum, a new YC-backed attention market, lets users trade on their favorite people, companies, and ideas.

🚨 UPDATE: @Jakepaul's Betr partners with Polymarket to bring prediction markets to their application.

🚨 BREAKING: Alleged insider on Polymarket profits $493K from the US strikes on Iran.

🚨 JUST IN: OpenAI fired an employee for using confidential company info to trade on prediction markets like Polymarket, as analysis reveals 77 suspected insider positions across 60 wallets tied to product launches and Sam Altman’s 2023 ouster.

🚨 JUST IN: Odds of Citrini Research's AI doomsday scenario unfolding sits at 11% as Kalshi opens market.

🚨 BREAKING: Kalshi just banned a MrBeast employee for 2 years and fined them $20K for insider trading on YouTube prediction markets.

🚨 BREAKING: Kalshi blocks major Democratic donor Stephen Cloobeck from trading on the California governor's race after he tried to bet on his close friend Eric Swalwell's candidacy.