Prediction markets intelligence desk. Access real-time alerts on Telegram: @Predictbook.
Joined June 2022
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some toughts from us
xitter.cf/Predictbook/status/211…
🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine peace talks are gaining momentum on Polymarket. A truce remains a long shot.
The chance of talks by November 30 rose from 29% to 64% after the Kremlin said Putin had agreed “in principle” to resume negotiations after November 10.
Yet a ceasefire agreement by the same deadline is priced at just 13%. Disputes over territory and security guarantees remain major obstacles to turning renewed diplomacy into a deal.
Read our analysis sees an opportunity in the $95 contract and the conditions behind that view.
predictbook.co/analysis/how-…
🛢️ How far could WTI crude fall after reaching $100?
Last week, our analysis explored the case for $100 oil. With that level reached, our analyst now sees potential value in a pullback to $95 before October 31, an outcome Polymarket prices at roughly 55%.
@nmaithyak argument: the US-Iran truce could leave room for prices to ease even if negotiations remain stalled. He also sees the expected Fed pause on October 28 as a possible source of further downward pressure.
Our analysis examines the diplomatic calendar and the obstacles between renewed talks and a ceasefire agreement.
predictbook.co/analysis/russ…
🇺🇦 Russia-Ukraine peace talks are gaining momentum on Polymarket. A truce remains a long shot.
The chance of talks by November 30 rose from 29% to 64% after the Kremlin said Putin had agreed “in principle” to resume negotiations after November 10.
Yet a ceasefire agreement by the same deadline is priced at just 13%. Disputes over territory and security guarantees remain major obstacles to turning renewed diplomacy into a deal.
Polymarket most active zero-fee markets in the past 24 hours.
🏀 Eight fee-free categories. NBA accounts for roughly 75% of the estimated fee savings.
On October 20, Polymarket waived taker fees across eight categories through October 31.
An independent tracker created by @0xd1namit has since recorded $44.5M in taker-side volume across 473K trades. At standard category rates, those trades would have incurred an estimated $753K in fees before rebates, including roughly $565K on NBA markets alone.
Our analysis compares the winner odds, margin markets and latest polling ahead of Sunday’s runoff.
predictbook.co/analysis/braz…
🇧🇷 Brazil’s runoff markets favor Bolsonaro, but not a blowout.
Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 78% chance of winning the October 25 election. In the separate margin market, his victory by fewer than four percentage points is the leading outcome at 41%.
A new Quaest poll puts Bolsonaro at 45% and Lula at 44%, a gap within the survey’s margin of error. Markets favor a Bolsonaro victory, but the margin contracts suggest a competitive finish rather than a landslide.
🏀 Eight fee-free categories. NBA accounts for roughly 75% of the estimated fee savings.
On October 20, Polymarket waived taker fees across eight categories through October 31.
An independent tracker created by @0xd1namit has since recorded $44.5M in taker-side volume across 473K trades. At standard category rates, those trades would have incurred an estimated $753K in fees before rebates, including roughly $565K on NBA markets alone.
Introducing a website that tracks how much traders save in fees during zero-fee event on Polymarket
During the NFL + college football event, Polymarket covered around $3M in trading fees. So I decided to build a website that tracks these savings live for this event:
fees.144-172-89-200.sslip.io
The design is taken entirely from data(dot)polymarket
Date updates every 5 minutes
In less than 24 hours, Polymarket has already covered over $300k in fees
How can you tell the difference between a sponsored community made up of real traders and one that’s just farming for funding?