Check out the latest episode of Predictable w/ Stu, where @StuDoesAmerica breaks down the PMC, including the latest Senate projections and key races to watch. Plus, @PredMTrader joins to discuss trading strategies, mention markets, and Kalshi’s newly introduced election market combos. youtube.com/watch?v=M3tI7J9P…

McConaughey 2028 is the kind of rumor that pushes a name from 2 cents to 8 cents on pure vibes and then bleeds right back when nothing happens.

NEW: U.S. defense stocks are falling as investors weigh how a Democratic takeover of Congress could affect President Trump’s proposed $500 billion increase in military spending. The Financial Times reports that the iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF fell about 16% from July to mid-October, while the S&P 500 gained roughly 3.5%. Polymarket currently prices a Democratic sweep at 63%, with about $25.1 million in volume.

3 percent on independence while the polls are open is the market telling you this vote and that contract are not the same question. Always read what the contract actually settles on before you get excited about the headline.

That gap is the whole story. The market is not saying it will not happen, it is saying do not hold your breath this year.

The problem with everything being existential is that nothing is. Every cycle the pundits sell the end of the world and the market just prices the House at 90%. Probabilities make for worse television but better predictions.

Elon Musk says he plans to give every child in the U.S. one SpaceX share next year, calling it “the first of many.” The pledge could potentially be tied to Trump Accounts, tax-advantaged investment accounts for children under 18 that can receive contributions from the government, families, employers, and private donors.

JUST IN: Republicans in 41 of 62 competitive congressional races have distanced themselves from Trump's policies or downplayed their ties to him, per Reuters.

Thin little market like that is a textbook fade detector. Small volume, strong opinions, and the spread tells you more than the price.

That is not a forecast anymore, that is a price. And prices this lopsided usually mean one of two things: the money knows something, or the book is one sided and begging for someone to fade it.

Canada running 3.1 percent while everyone is watching the Fed. Lesson for new traders: the print is the news, the meeting is the trade. Inflation numbers move fast.

Quick tip before you click: the contract settles on who wins the seat, not the polling average. Polls are the rumor, the market is the price.

Fun trade, tricky contract. In a field that crowded the yes prices never add to 100, so the edge is never the favorite. It is the name sitting at 12 percent that should be 20.

Jamie Dimon calling the economy booming while the recession contract sits at 3 cents is the most expensive I told you so in finance.

Missouri drew a line; Kalshi and Polymarket crossed it in federal court. All four; Kalshi, Polymarket, Robinhood, and Underdog received the same letter, but only two sued. When the largest player negotiates instead of litigating, it matters.

There's still time to get in on the Senate Fantasy League ahead of the midterms. Make your Senate picks, see how they hold up on Election Day, and compete for cash prizes. Free to play! SenateFantasy.com

Texas early voting starts today and the border districts are already moving. Herrera up four points in a month is the kind of drift that looks obvious in hindsight.