CFA | RIA | Halal Investor I manage client portfolios at https://xitter.cf/t.co/qDtJfajzik and share my model portfolio, trades, and investment research at https://xitter.cf/t.co/rk2ZrhqcUU. NFA

Dallas, Texas
Joined June 2021
Allah, who knows us better than we know ourselves, tells us that humankind was created of haste. Not that we sometimes act in haste. That it is woven into how we were made. In its original context, this ayah was addressed to people demanding that Allahโ€™s signs and promised outcomes arrive on their timeline. Show us now. Prove it now. And the response is gentle but firm: they will come. Do not ask Me to hurry them. We think about this verse a lot as investors. Almost every costly mistake we have seen or made, in our own decisions, comes back to the same root. Selling a good company because it went nowhere for sometime. Buying something because everyone else already made money on it. Checking prices five times a day and calling it research. Wanting the result before the process has had time to work. The markets did not create this impulse. They just expose it. What we find beautiful about this ayah is that it does not shame us for being hasty. It names it, and then asks us to trust anyway. The signs are coming. The outcome is in Allahโ€™s hands. Our job is to do what is right, consistently, and let time do what only time can do. That is what building wealth the halal way actually looks like. Not a lack of ambition, but ambition with patience attached to it. Know your nature. Then build habits that protect you from it.
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The most dangerous thing that can happen to an investor is making money on a bad decision. One investor buys a trending stock. It doubles. He thinks he's a genius. Another studies the business, estimates its fair value, and buys at a discount. The stock falls 30%. Who made the better decision? A good outcome doesn't prove good judgment. A bad outcome doesn't prove bad judgment. Surah Al-Asr reminds us to hold firmly to truth and patience. ๐—ง๐—ฟ๐˜‚๐˜๐—ต ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—พ๐˜‚๐—ถ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜€ ๐—ฝ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ถ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฐ๐—ฒ ๐—ฝ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ฒ๐—น๐˜† ๐—ฏ๐—ฒ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐˜‚๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐—ถ๐˜ ๐—ถ๐˜€๐—ป'๐˜ ๐—ฎ๐—น๐˜„๐—ฎ๐˜†๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜„๐—ฎ๐—ฟ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐—ถ๐—บ๐—บ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ฎ๐˜๐—ฒ๐—น๐˜†. Investing tests the same discipline. Markets can reward recklessness and punish sound reasoning in the short term. But if you abandon sound reasoning whenever it fails to pay off immediately, you're no longer following principles. You're following immediate outcomes which leads to disaster. Judge your decisions by the quality of your reasoning, not the next move in a stock's price. Because the greatest danger of making money on a bad decision is that you'll keep making it.
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The S&P 500 has NEVER posted a negative return in the 12 months following a US midterm election since 1950. 19 elections. 19 positive outcomes. The average return? +15.4%. The next midterm election is November 3rd, just two weeks away. My interpretation: Elections create uncertainty. Once they're behind us, one source of uncertainty disappears. Of course, 19 historical observations don't guarantee a 20th. But with investors worried about inflation, interest rates, and geopolitical tensions, this historical pattern is worth paying attention to.
๐Ÿค– Made with AI
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The FDA approval of $IRD's presbyopia treatment is a major de-risking event that I don't think the market fully appreciates. Here's why: 1- Regulatory risk has been eliminated for this indication. 2- Approval triggers a milestone payment from Viatris. 3- $IRD stands to earn royalties ranging from the low double digits to the low 20s on US sales, without having to fund commercialization itself. 4- Presbyopia affects roughly 90% of Americans over 45. The addressable market is enormous. The question is no longer "Will the FDA approve it?" but "How much can Viatris actually sell?" Commercial execution remains a risk, but the potential royalty stream could become a meaningful asset for a company of IRD's size. Our base-case valuation remains $6.65/share, with a bull case of $10 to $12 , assuming successful commercialization and continued pipeline progress. At $3.84, we see attractive risk/reward. We're maintaining our current position size and may add more if decline continues. pif.finance/reports/stocks/Iโ€ฆ
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Jummaโ€™a Mubaraka In Surat Al Kahf, Musa AS travels with Al Khidr, and three things happen that make no sense to him. Al Khidr damages a boat belonging to poor fishermen. He takes the life of a young boy. Then he rebuilds a falling wall for free, in a town that refused to feed them. Each time, Musa AS objects. Each time, it looks wrong. Then the hidden reasons come out: The boat: a tyrant king was seizing every sound ship. A damaged boat was a saved boat. The boy: he would have grown up to burden his righteous parents with rebellion and disbelief, and Allah would replace him with a better child. The wall: under it was a treasure belonging to two orphans, kept safe until they came of age because their father was righteous. What looked like loss was protection from something far worse. The market works the same way. The trade you missed. The stock you sold too early. The position that failed the halal screen and had to go. It stings in the moment. Sometimes Allah gives you a small pain to save you from a bigger one. Trust the process. Trust the One who sees what you canโ€™t. ๐Ÿคฒ
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Some people worship Allah on the edge. When life is good, they're content. When hardship strikes, they turn away, losing both this world and the Hereafter. (Surah Al-Hajj 22:11) Conviction that disappears when tested was never conviction. It's a useful reminder when investing. An even more important one when worshiping Allah.
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Big Tech is spending hundreds of billions on AI. But who's actually collecting the money? Five major hyperscalers are projected to have roughly zero combined free cash flow. Meanwhile, forward free cash flow for four major chip and semiconductor equipment companies has climbed toward $420 BILLION. ๐—ข๐—ป๐—ฒ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ'๐˜€ ๐˜€๐—ฝ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐—ฑ๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ถ๐˜€ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ผ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ฟ ๐˜€๐—ถ๐—ฑ๐—ฒ'๐˜€ ๐—ฟ๐—ฒ๐˜ƒ๐—ฒ๐—ป๐˜‚๐—ฒ. As investors, we're looking for opportunities on the receiving end of that spending. And for halal-conscious investors, some of the most obvious semiconductor names fail our screening standards. โŒ $NVDA: multiple R&D centers in Israel โŒ $AVGO: heavy debt from the VMware deal โŒ $MU: Israel presence โŒ $AMAT: major Israel operations That's why we're looking further down the supply chain: โš™๏ธ $TSM: Chip manufacturing โ„๏ธ $VRT: Data center power and cooling ๐Ÿ”ง $FIX: Mechanical and electrical infrastructure โšก $BE: On-site electricity generation ๐Ÿ’ก $AAOI: Optical networking ๐Ÿ—๏ธ $DY: Fiber and network infrastructure ๐Ÿ”Œ $KEEL: AI infrastructure exposure Of course, these companies still face valuation, execution, and spending-cycle risks. But hereโ€™s the opportunity: ๐—ฌ๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฑ๐—ผ๐—ป'๐˜ ๐—ป๐—ฒ๐—ฒ๐—ฑ ๐˜๐—ผ ๐—ฝ๐—ถ๐—ฐ๐—ธ ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ป๐—ถ๐—ป๐—ด ๐—ต๐—ผ๐—ฟ๐˜€๐—ฒ ๐˜„๐—ต๐—ฒ๐—ป ๐˜†๐—ผ๐˜‚ ๐—ฐ๐—ฎ๐—ป ๐—ผ๐˜„๐—ป ๐˜๐—ต๐—ฒ ๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ฒ๐˜๐—ฟ๐—ฎ๐—ฐ๐—ธ. Need to screen a company deeper than just financials, check out our halal reports in the first reply.
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The AI opportunity is still in its infancy. Only 2.2% of US households pay for AI subscriptions. Compare that with: ๐Ÿ“ป SiriusXM: ~25% โ˜๏ธ Cloud storage: ~55% ๐Ÿ“บ Streaming: ~91% Meanwhile, roughly half of American adults have already used AI chatbots. People are discovering AI's value long before most are willing to pay for it. That's a potentially enormous monetization opportunity. Paid AI adoption has climbed from almost nothing in 2023 to 2.2% today. Smartphones took roughly eight years to reach 10% US adoption, then less than three years to reach 40%. AI subscriptions won't necessarily follow the same path, but the potential is hard to ignore. AI bubble folks risk being caught on the wrong side of this trade for a really long time.
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โ€œWhen my portfolio hits X figures, Iโ€™ll start giving more.โ€ โ€œOnce this trade works out, Iโ€™ll pay my zakat properly.โ€ โ€œAfter I make it, Iโ€™ll switch everything to halal.โ€ Sound familiar? These ayat describe people who made exactly that kind of promise to Allah. And when He gave them from His bounty, they held on to it and turned away. The lesson for every investor: wealth rarely makes you more generous. It reveals who you already were. If you canโ€™t give from $1,000, it wonโ€™t get easier at $1,000,000. The attachment only grows with the balance. So donโ€™t wait for the big win. Give from what you have today. Pay your zakat on time, every year. Clean up your portfolio now, not โ€œafter this run.โ€ Keep your promises to Allah while theyโ€™re still small and easy to keep.
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