Founder & Principal | Bowes Strategy & Analytics Political Analyst/Campaign Consultant focused on improving GOP campaign strategy and GOTV initiatives
Joined September 2025
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Few things about me:
1) I'm a Conservative Republican focused on electing Conservative Republicans
2) I'm NOT a pollster. I'm an independent polticial analyst and campaign consultant
3) My forecasts are done through data-driven analysis and have NO political bias.
Currently catching up on all the updates from the first day of Texas early voting. Definitely some mixed signs today; too early to analyze Paxton's performance.
Marist shifts 4 points in favor of Husted, previously showing a +8 environment for Brown. Marist is notorious for underestimating Republicans and has missed the Ohio Senate result by around 6% the last 3 times.
Marist Poll (OH Senate): Marist | Actual | Miss
2018: D+ 13 | D+ 6.8 | R+ 6.2
2022: EVEN | R+ 6.1 | R+ 6.1
2024: D+ 2 | R+ 3.6 | R+ 5.6
If this pattern continues, Husted sits around R+ 1.6-2.2. My model currently has him at R+2.8
Wow... Amy Acton's mother comes out against her daughter's candidacy, claiming she has a horrible habit of lying. Check it out:
BOMBSHELL:
Ohio Democratic gubernatorial candidate Amy Acton’s own mother urges voters not to vote for her daughter.
“My name is Donna Arthur and I’m Amy Acton’s mother. I worked at Children and Family Service Association, building one of the first two sexual abuse programs in America.
I love my daughter, but when I saw her lying about her opponent—and it’s not easy for a mother to say this—but Amy has a serious problem.
She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent. None of that is true. She’s lied her entire life.
My daughter needs help, and she can’t help you if she needs help herself. People can change, but first they have to tell the truth, and my daughter still isn’t doing that.
Don’t vote for people who lie. Don’t let her become your governor. If you think she’ll make your life better, you’re fooling yourself. It will only get worse.”
That’s one hell of an October surprise.
Rhode Island and Tennessee join the cycle's more competitive races, with Independent candidates expected to take off significant chunks of typical party-line voters. See all competitive margins below ⬇️⬇️⬇️
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: October 19, 2026
🔴GOP: 17 (25) Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 19 (25) Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 2
Alaska
Iowa
🔴GOP Flips: 1
Kansas
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔵+ 1.3 (FLIP)
Arizona: 🔵+ 5.6
Florida: 🔴+ 7.2
Georgia: 🔴+ 4.0
Iowa: 🔵+ 0.5 (FLIP)
Kansas: 🔴+ 6.8 (FLIP)
Maine: 🔵+ 9.2
Michigan:🔵+ 6.4
Minnesota: 🔵+ 6.4
Nebraska: 🔴+ 12.9
Nevada: 🔴+ 2.2
New Hampshire: 🔴+ 8.1
New Mexico: 🔵+ 6.3
New York: 🔵+ 12.1
Ohio: 🔴+ 3.6
Oregon: 🔵+ 4.5
Rhode Island: 🔵+ 9.5
Tennessee: 🔴+ 11.5
Texas: 🔴+ 9.2
Wisconsin: 🔵+ 3.1
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Gubernatorial Forecast: October 19, 2026
🔴GOP: 17 (25) Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 19 (25) Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 2
Alaska
Iowa
🔴GOP Flips: 1
Kansas
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔵+ 1.3 (FLIP)
Arizona: 🔵+ 5.6
Florida: 🔴+ 7.2
Georgia: 🔴+ 4.0
Iowa: 🔵+ 0.5 (FLIP)
Kansas: 🔴+ 6.8 (FLIP)
Maine: 🔵+ 9.2
Michigan:🔵+ 6.4
Minnesota: 🔵+ 6.4
Nebraska: 🔴+ 12.9
Nevada: 🔴+ 2.2
New Hampshire: 🔴+ 8.1
New Mexico: 🔵+ 6.3
New York: 🔵+ 12.1
Ohio: 🔴+ 3.6
Oregon: 🔵+ 4.5
Rhode Island: 🔵+ 9.5
Tennessee: 🔴+ 11.5
Texas: 🔴+ 9.2
Wisconsin: 🔵+ 3.1
Chase Bowes retweeted
Low prop voters breaking Republican is a great sign and a big reason why I support voting early
Chase Bowes retweeted
The GOP can still hold the Senate and even perform BETTER than Chase's forecast
WE JUST HAVE TO SHOW UP!
NOBODY STAYS HOME!
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Senate Forecast: October 15, 2026
🔴GOP: 52 Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 48 Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 1
North Carolina
🔴GOP Flips: 0
Key Rating Changes (From Sept 7):
Alaska: 🔵->🔴
Michigan: 🔴->🔵
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔴+ 2.4
Florida: 🔴+ 11.1
Georgia: 🔵+ 9.4
Iowa: 🔴+ 4.1
Kansas: 🔴+ 4.4
Maine: 🔴+ 4.1
Michigan: 🔵+ 1.3
Minnesota: 🔵+ 3.3
Mississippi: 🔴+ 9.7
Montana: 🔴+ 12.7
Nebraska: 🔴+ 9.2
New Hampshire: 🔵+ 2.9
North Carolina: 🔵+ 9.0 (FLIP)
Ohio: 🔴+ 2.6
South Carolina: 🔴+ 4.9
Texas: 🔴+ 0.2
*Just a live, data-driven forecast, NOT A POLL*
U.S. Senate Forecast: October 15, 2026
🔴GOP: 52 Seats (-1)
🔵DEMS: 48 Seats (+1)
🔵 DEM Flips: 1
North Carolina
🔴GOP Flips: 0
Key Rating Changes (From Sept 7):
Alaska: 🔵->🔴
Michigan: 🔴->🔵
Margins (States under 15%):
Alaska: 🔴+ 2.4
Florida: 🔴+ 11.1
Georgia: 🔵+ 9.4
Iowa: 🔴+ 4.1
Kansas: 🔴+ 4.4
Maine: 🔴+ 4.1
Michigan: 🔵+ 1.3
Minnesota: 🔵+ 3.3
Mississippi: 🔴+ 9.7
Montana: 🔴+ 12.7
Nebraska: 🔴+ 9.2
New Hampshire: 🔵+ 2.9
North Carolina: 🔵+ 9.0 (FLIP)
Ohio: 🔴+ 2.6
South Carolina: 🔴+ 4.9
Texas: 🔴+ 0.2
Not a horrible sign for Republicans hoping to maintain ground in Trump +5.5 Arizona. I still expect Hobbs, as an incumbent, to be favored, though AZ-01 and AZ-06 may be closer than expected. I currently rate them D+ 2.9 and D+ 0.3, respectively.
Chase Bowes retweeted
Campaigns love it when you vote early.
No, it does NOT "give Democrats the numbers they need"
Read this from Chase... He's actually running four campaigns and is speaking from first hand experience.
Vote early if you can. If you don't want to, that's your choice. But at least consider it.
It helps campaigns more than you realize!
Activists like @PolPredictions and @ScottPresler are massive assets to our movement!
As someone who manages campaigns and is currently running FOUR campaign ground-games in my county, PLEASE go vote early.
Voting early helps campaigns redirect resources to the low-propensity base and allows us to knock a door or send a text that we might have not been able to get to if we're still waiting on our high-propensity voters to get to the polls.
If you hate having people come to your door or a candidate texting you, GO VOTE!! And bring 10 friends!! It takes 5-10 minutes. Get it done!!!
As someone who manages campaigns and is currently running FOUR campaign ground-games in my county, PLEASE go vote early.
Voting early helps campaigns redirect resources to the low-propensity base and allows us to knock a door or send a text that we might have not been able to get to if we're still waiting on our high-propensity voters to get to the polls.
If you hate having people come to your door or a candidate texting you, GO VOTE!! And bring 10 friends!! It takes 5-10 minutes. Get it done!!!
