10/20 NCAAF FIU is 8-0 ATS when their opponent recorded fewer than 38 pass attempts & 2 or more turnovers in their previous game FIU -9.5 vs MTSU #NCAAF #GamblingX

Indiana is coming off a nail biting road win over Nebraska. In my opinion, this result coupled with the fact that the Hoosiers are just 1-5 ATS this season, has provided some betting value in this matchup between Ohio State & Indiana. While public perception leans more towards backing the blue blood pedigree of Ohio State, the advanced numbers suggest this game is a razor thin coin flip. Coming into the season, I was skeptical about whether Josh Hoover would be able to operate this offense efficiently without turning the ball over, as he had previously struggled with turnovers at TCU. However, Hoover has thrown for 1,364 yards with 17 touchdowns & 0 interceptions so far this year. Their passing game has been efficient. Indiana boasts an impressive pass EPA of +0.46 (1st nationally), narrowly edging out Ohio State's pass EPA of +0.42 (2nd nationally). While Ohio State features an overall adjusted net EPA of +0.36 (5th nationally), their offensive profile is more one dimensional compared to Indiana’s multifaceted attack. The Hoosiers are pounding teams on the ground with a 6.1 yards per carry average & they are 19th in the country in EPA per rush. Conversely, the Buckeyes are sitting at 52nd nationally in EPA per rush, generating just 4.3 yards per carry on the ground. The offensive line has struggled to generate consistent push on standard downs, leading to blown up blocking schemes in the backfield. Rather than grinding opponents down, the offense has leaned heavily on the passing game to keep the chains moving. Because Indiana’s defense excels at limiting early down rushing success, they can force Ohio State into predictable passing downs. If the Buckeyes can’t stay ahead of the sticks with positive rushing success, it limits play action effectiveness & allows Indiana's defenders to pin their ears back. The primary weakness of Indiana’s defense has been the secondary, as they sit 76th in the country in EPA per pass allowed. To minimize this weakness & survive Ohio State’s passing attack, they must ensure that Julian Sayin doesn’t have time to let deep routes develop. Indiana has been exceptional at getting home upfront, racking up a sack percentage of nearly 9% (10th nationally). Rather than leaving cornerbacks on an island with no safety help, Indiana will likely use exotic pressure looks & simulated pressures on early downs. If they can force Sayin into hurried throws or quick check downs, they prevent the Buckeyes from attacking the deeper layers of their secondary. By forcing Sayin to throw underneath & limiting yards after catch, the Hoosiers can force Ohio State to matriculate down the field & bank on the idea their inconsistent run game will eventually cause the drive to stall out. Against an elite deep threat weapon like Jeremiah Smith, playing aggressive man to man coverage is a recipe for getting beat over the top. Indiana must rely on split safety coverages to ensure they always have a numbers advantage. You can’t stop an elite talent like Jeremiah Smith, but you can try to slow him down & dictate who beats you. Indiana will likely use aggressive bracket coverages by rolling a safety over towards Smith's side of the field while playing an underneath defender to disrupt his release off the line of scrimmage. By forcing Ohio State’s secondary targets to beat them, Indiana shifts the burden of execution away from their defenders & onto the rhythm of the Ohio State offense as a whole. The Buckeyes have the more talented roster in this game, which is already baked into my number. However, as we’ve seen in the past, this Indiana coaching staff knows how to prep for these games where they face a “talent disadvantage”. I make the game Ohio State -0.9 on a neutral field, but with this game being played in Bloomington, I’m siding with Curt Cignetti & the Hoosiers. I like Indiana to cover the number, & I also sprinkled on them to win the game outright. Indiana +4 Indiana +3.5 Indiana ML +149 #NCAAF #GamblingX

10/16 NCAAF Washington is 17-0 to the Under as a road underdog of less than 17.5 points when the total is more than 42 Washington/Purdue Under 52.5 team=WAS and AD and line<17.5 and total>42 and season>=2014 #NCAAF #GamblingX

10/15 NCAAF East Carolina is 0-18 ATS as a favorite when they have won over 55% of their games & are facing an opponent that previously threw for fewer than 160 yards UAB +5.5 vs East Carolina #NCAAF #GamblingX

10/10 NCAAF Ole Miss is 8-0 to the Under in their last 8 games coming off a bye week Ole Miss/Vanderbilt Under 59.5 #NCAAF #GamblingX