@gatadata88

born and raised in Gainesville (ACR). data scientist and lifelong gator fan.

Joined April 2025
  • Tweets1.2K
  • Following595
  • Followers3.7K
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I wanted to create a KenPom-style opponent adjustment for football efficiency, using points per drive instead of points per possession. It starts with each team’s raw PPD, then iteratively applies multiplicative updates based on opponent strength until the iteration converges. It’s still very early, so the ratings are noisy, but the opponent adjustments should become much more reliable as the season grows and the schedule network gets more connected. Florida off to a great start though 🐊
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Florida’s first 4 games vs the first 4 games of the top three teams from every season since 2001 (final AP rank). Florida is second and points per drive an eighth in red zone TD rate so far.
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
18h
Florida this year compared to the first four games of every national championship team since 2004. The Gators rank 5th in total yards per game and 2nd in points per drive among the 23 teams in the comparison.
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Offensive line compared to some previous seasons Through four games, the lowest pressure rate compared to all gator teams since 2016 And highest power success rate, tied with 2002.
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
3h
Offensive line has been phenomenal this year. @CoachTrautFB is crushing it. Through Week 4, the Gators rank 1st in Power Success Rate and 5th in sacks allowed per game among P4 teams They’ve converted every qualifying short-yardage opportunity while allowing just 2 sacks in 4 games.
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Offensive line has been phenomenal this year. @CoachTrautFB is crushing it. Through Week 4, the Gators rank 1st in Power Success Rate and 5th in sacks allowed per game among P4 teams They’ve converted every qualifying short-yardage opportunity while allowing just 2 sacks in 4 games.
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Had to update the chart - had a few teams wrong, but directionally correct (Oklahoma). That distance between florida and the field in power success is beautiful.
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Random Gator lore: this article was published on this day, back in 2007 floridagators.com/news/2007/… It was about a practice hit Major Wright put on Chris Rainey that became so legendary inside the program that his freshman black stripe came off the next day. It was some pretty incredible foreshadowing for the hit he’d deliver against Oklahoma in the national championship game.
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Florida this year compared to the first four games of every national championship team since 2004. The Gators rank 5th in total yards per game and 2nd in points per drive among the 23 teams in the comparison.
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Based on actual resume, this makes sense. Though I wouldn’t have Miami in the top ten.
Josh Pate
@JoshPateCFB
23h
🚨WEEK 5 COMMISSIONER’S POLL🚨
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Are we really asking this question? How about the defending SEC champs, who also happen to be returning almost all their starters (and an upgrade who helped us already win a national championship)
Random SEC
@therandomsec
Oct 1
SEC BASKETBALL IS BACK IN ONE MONTH! Who will be the best team in the conference in 2026-27?
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There are two tiers emerging in SEC basketball this year. Tier 1: Florida Tier 2: everyone else
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
23h
Quick football timeout to just appreciate the fact that we might have the best college basketball team of all time in the 2026-27 Florida Gators (offensive and defensive ratings come from Evan Miya preseason numbers).
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Though not sure why Aberdeen is rated so low (especially defensively?).
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Quick football timeout to just appreciate the fact that we might have the best college basketball team of all time in the 2026-27 Florida Gators (offensive and defensive ratings come from Evan Miya preseason numbers).
College Basketball Report
@CBKReport
Oct 1
ONE MONTH TILL COLLEGE HOOPS 🎉
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Gator Analytics retweeted
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Oct 1
The SEC is the only conference with a winning record against other P4 schools. The ACC had some decent wins against some of the bottom feeders of the Big 10, but lets stop pretending like they are a serious conference. I would be ok disqualifying all ACC teams from the playoffs. Just pathetic.
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Oct 1
But even if we take power ratings out of it, the SEC still comes out on top. This is a results-only rating built from actual scores, adjusted for opponent strength, location, and margin. SEC +12.9 Big Ten +8.2 Big 12 +5.1 ACC +2.0
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Gator Analytics retweeted
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Oct 1
There is so much complaining lately about SEC bias in power ratings and polls. But if you use those same power ratings to project the non-conference record for each conference, the SEC SHOULD be 33-5 at this point in the season They are in fact 36-2, so if anything, they are currently over performing their ratings.
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The SEC is the only conference with a winning record against other P4 schools. The ACC had some decent wins against some of the bottom feeders of the Big 10, but lets stop pretending like they are a serious conference. I would be ok disqualifying all ACC teams from the playoffs. Just pathetic.
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Oct 1
But even if we take power ratings out of it, the SEC still comes out on top. This is a results-only rating built from actual scores, adjusted for opponent strength, location, and margin. SEC +12.9 Big Ten +8.2 Big 12 +5.1 ACC +2.0
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But even if we take power ratings out of it, the SEC still comes out on top. This is a results-only rating built from actual scores, adjusted for opponent strength, location, and margin. SEC +12.9 Big Ten +8.2 Big 12 +5.1 ACC +2.0
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Oct 1
There is so much complaining lately about SEC bias in power ratings and polls. But if you use those same power ratings to project the non-conference record for each conference, the SEC SHOULD be 33-5 at this point in the season They are in fact 36-2, so if anything, they are currently over performing their ratings.
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There is so much complaining lately about SEC bias in power ratings and polls. But if you use those same power ratings to project the non-conference record for each conference, the SEC SHOULD be 33-5 at this point in the season They are in fact 36-2, so if anything, they are currently over performing their ratings.
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You can also use those ratings to project how the avg P4 team would fare against each conference’s non-conference schedule and compare it to what each conference actually did. The SEC outperforms the avg P4 team by 5 expected wins, the most for any conference.
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Fun fact: the last time Florida scored more points through the first four games was the 1996 national championship season (217 total vs 214)
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Danny is looking so damn cool in this photo.
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Another week that Florida tops the list for the least injured team heading into Saturday 🐊
Gator Analytics
@gatadata88
Sep 24
For the second straight week, Florida has the fewest players listed on the SEC injury report.
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Top 10 Florida and Missouri quarterbacks ranked by career passing yards per game. @SMniner takes the top spot. @ChaseDaniel number 1 for mizzou. The second chart just shows that, historically, Florida’s top QBs are on a different level. No respect off this week.
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