Pinned Tweet
Quick re-introduction on me.
I’ve spent more than 30 years in markets across institutional investing, wealth mgmt, global macro, small caps and alternatives. I’m a CFA, I’ve traded since 1995, and I was fortunate enough to retire young.
These days I invest only my own capital, with most of my attention on AI infra, semis, special situations and BTC. I’ll share the tickers I own, the work behind them and the risks that could prove me wrong.
But the longer I’ve done this, the less impressed I am by predictions and the more I respect mindset. Markets reward patience, adaptability and emotional control far more consistently than ego or certainty.
I share both, the names I’m underwriting and the psychology required to hold, add, cut and change your mind when the facts change or the asymmetry diminishes.
No course. No paid group. Nothing to sell you.
Just 3 decades of wins, losses and lessons, shared in public.
My way of giving back to investors.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
Replying to @zerohedge
This is heavily misleading. Yes, the cost per token is going down but with every token cheaper the use cases broaden. If it costs 1M tokens to run a query in an LLM and it costs 1T tokens to cure cancer the value per token is less, but the price someone is willing to pay in aggregate is way more because the returns are substantially higher. Or take robotics for example, where once it economically makes sense to train models on 1T tokens because of the returns on the other side. A bunch of companies enter in and set a baseline floor for that new use case in token consumption. Hence Jevons Paradox.
With a 50Vol. It’s a bit of a back handed compliment.
What they can’t come out and say is bitcoin:native will return 25% a year CAGR the next decade and the proper AA should be 10-15%!
JPMORGAN FORECASTS BITCOIN $BTC TO OUTPERFORM EVERY MAJOR ASSET OVER THE NEXT DECADE WITH 10% ANNUALIZED COMPOUND RETURN
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
Bond market is already sniffing out $CRWV running into issues being a buyer of GPU’s without owning the physical infrastructure. Spreads for investment grade colocation deals despite this remains tight. The market is going to have a rude awakening once it understands that the scarcity comes from the power, labor, permits, and capital that allows the chips to be brought online. Equity markets shoot first and take down the colocation/neocloud sector without differentiating and understanding the implications. $IREN $CIFR $WULF $NUAI
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
"In bear markets, stocks return to their rightful owners." - J.P. Morgan
These complicated transactions related to the converts have cost $IREN shareholders hundreds of millions if not something closer to a billion dollars.
Unwinding these is the recognition they are comfortable with further dilution and a lower then expected stock price.
They did make sure to get the egregious executive comp package say or pay approval into the meeting of course.
Mgt gets paid regardless of the price performance.
Unheard of.
$IREN is asking shareholders to approve repurchases tied to two specific financing transactions.
Here’s what you need to know:
1/ Prepaid forward transactions
Typically involve IREN agreeing to repurchase shares in connection with a financing arrangement, with the final share or cash settlement determined by the contract terms.
2/ Capped call transactions
Derivative contracts typically used alongside convertible notes to reduce potential dilution when the share price rises. The repurchase relates to shares associated with those arrangements, not necessarily an ordinary open-market buyback.
3/ The distinction
A conventional buyback reduces shares outstanding using company cash. These transaction-related repurchases may instead be part of managing IREN's convertible-note structure and potential dilution.
More precisely, the vote allows $IREN to receive its own shares from financial counterparties when these contracts settle, rather than receiving cash.
That can reduce shares outstanding and help offset dilution from convertible notes, depending on settlement.
-BP
Not financial advice.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
AI could be extremey bad for equities.
- Pure AI companies face brutal competition as token prices go to zero. Massive bloodbath for pure LLMs, Impossible to justify economics.
- Normal companies find their moats dissapearing as AI startups clobber them.
Buy Bitcoin.
Dressing up another dilution event to coincide with the new contract.
The CEOs get paid regardless of the share price. Different game than you are playing. Longevity matters more than price performance results in a sub optimal corp structure.
🚨 $IREN SHAREHOLDERS — Something interesting in the upcoming Annual General Meeting on November 24.
IREN is asking shareholders to vote on 6 proposals, but two caught my attention:
🔹 Proposal #2: Approve share repurchases through Prepaid Forward Transactions.
🔹 Proposal #3: Approve share repurchases through Capped Call Transactions.
Why does this matter?
These financial arrangements can help manage potential shareholder dilution, particularly from convertible debt.
For a company aggressively expanding its AI infrastructure footprint, managing dilution is a BIG deal.
⚠️ Important distinction: This is NOT necessarily a traditional share buyback announcement. These are structured financial transactions, and the exact terms matter.
My take? Potentially encouraging for existing shareholders, but I want to dig into the full proxy statement before drawing conclusions.
$IREN investors — are you voting YES on these proposals? 👀
Bitcoin per share is a farce.
It’s all about the cost of equity or Ke.
Cost of equity is greater than 50% for these companies. Now they wake up and realize they should only be issuing credit at 12-13%!
$MSTR
The first time $MSTR hit the current $154 share price, they held 245,000 BTC.
Today they hold 848,000.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
Replying to @Sethjzq0s @AlexisWrem1747
The IREN strategy is flawed and I think mgt knows this but was forced in this direction.
The majority of their clients will be either out of business or on their backs in 2-3yrs.
IREN needs everything to go perfect for them and I don’t see it happening………….
IREN is a stock that can maybe be traded but I don’t see the cloud strategy succeeding and they certainly don’t have the marketing dollars long term to compete. Short term contracts and below IG customers will be the death of this company.
Market it ✅
$IREN
Higher potential value to monetize the asset intermediate term
Higher capital and execution risk short and intermediate term.
$NUAI
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
Big update from Northland on $NUAI. 👀
Their previous $12 target assumed just 45% ownership of TCDC through a JV.
With NUAI now pursuing hyperscalers directly, Northland models 95% ownership, pushing its implied valuation to $20/share.
Same project. Much more upside retained by shareholders.
The boys @optionology and @fnitefiend are getting even more excited. 🔥
No idea who said this, but I trust @ChairmansLedger knowledge, mindset and experience. He has nothing to sell you or gain and his sharing his intellectual capital for the good of the community and mutual interaction @all things” markets.
Respect.
Got called a scammer this week by someone who’s never spoken to me.
So here’s the deal.
I post what I own, what I paid, what I’m up/down and what I think. I’ve explained the $100m+ exit including what that number actually meant for me. I’ve said the book you see here is only part of my wealth. I post screenshots of positions, trades and prems. I chat to lots of folks via DMs constantly and give away everything I’m willing to share about how I think.
I sell nothing. No course, no sub, no paid room, no signals. The only money this account makes is whatever X pays creators.
I’ve also been clear about what I want. Reach. A large audience might give me access to ppl I otherwise wouldn’t have if/when I decide to build again.
I’m anon bc I value my privacy. That’s really it.
I’ve told you I’ve had a pretty unusual life experiences across SpecOps, finance, building and selling a co and now managing my own capital. I try to turn what I’ve learned across all of it into something useful for ppl here, for free.
Those are things I’ve told you about myself. Believe them or don’t. The screenshots are receipts. My bio isn’t.
At some point there’s nothing left to show short of putting my LinkedIn and my passport on the timeline.
And none of this means you should outsource your judgment to me. Quite the opposite.
Don’t fall for fallacies, don’t confuse randomness with skill. Look at the evidence, understand the incentives, find the truth as best you can and then be brave enough to make your own decisions.
That’s basically the only thing I want anyone to take from this account.
And when someone calls a stranger a scammer with nothing behind it, apply the same standard to them.
Good luck friends.
- TCL
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
$NUAI’s gay price action is definitely part of it.
Few remember that $IREN round-tripped to ~$5 twice before it went on its legendary run.
$NUAI price action is giving me the exact same kind of déjà vu.
We’ll see who survives the shakeout.
youtube.com/watch?v=Dz5VzLz6…
Great point @AlexisWrem1747
Macquarie and Vistra have already done the DD on the land, power,
Assets and near term contract on the table.
$NUAI
$5.99 is a gift for investors who haven’t made a yet.
$NUAI Do people really think $VST would sign a 207 MW, 20-year power deal with little $NUAI without doing serious DD and getting extremely comfortable with what sits behind it?
You don’t commit to something like that on hope.
My guess is Vistra has seen a lot more than the public market has - and their DD gave them a very high degree of confidence that the broader deal is coming together.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
$NUAI is on the radar now bc a lot of very smart ppl have put it there. There’s a reason for that.
It’s incredibly hard on X to work out who actually knows their shit, but from my interactions w/ the ppl around this name, the quality of the group is a level above most others I’m in.
Obvs I don’t care whether you own it. I’m not selling you anything.
But I do know what getting to the next level of wealth can change in your life, and if anything I post helps a few ppl get there, that’s worth something to me.
I’ve been pretty clear about how I see $NUAI.
As they say, you’ve been warned.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
$NUAI These guys are absolutely on fire 🔥🔥🔥
If you’re following the NUAI story, give these guys a follow:
@fnitefiend @LovedropV @optionology
Great research. Great updates. No subscriber fee and no satellite photos…
Next part of our $NUAI work with @optionology and @fnitefiend
We mapped what we believe are the next major catalysts:
• Letter of credit by Oct 9
• Non-binding tenant LOI in the next ~2 weeks
• Macquarie funding
• Final lease agreement in the next ~45 days
These dates are our estimates based on public information and commentary, not company guidance.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
More and more breadcrumbs keep showing up around $NUAI and TCDC.
Starting to feel like we’re connecting the dots in real time 👀
Piece by piece, the story keeps getting clearer.
@optionology @shwogud
We heard big news from the Ector County Commissioners Court today about $NUAI and its TCDC project! The judge said that now that the 200 MW power deal is signed, "this is starting to become a reality." New Era asked for no tax breaks and will pay the full rate, which could mean HUNDREDS OF MILLIONS in property taxes, back to the community. The county is getting ready for this to be built, and it's a huge win for the local community. @LovedropV @fnitefiend
How much longer will the market ignore the value and near term catalysts?
$NUAI xitter.cf/optionology/status/210…
This quoted post is unavailable.
Phil DeSantis, CFA 🇺🇸 retweeted
B. Riley just raised its $NUAI target to $13 from $10 and kept its Buy.
That's a 30% jump from the firm that started coverage at $10 in July.
The timing stands out. Last week New Era set up a $100M program to sell shares at market prices (an ATM). An analyst raising the target while the company is raising cash suggests they think the money buys real growth, not just time.
Small cap, big swings. But conviction is going up, not down.
Long $NUAI Not financial advice.
news.google.com/rss/articles…
$NUAI
Upgraded from $10 to $13 in anticipation of the lease and PPA with Vistra signed.
























