The only place on X focusing on the performance of outsider parties and elections. 📊 Twinned with @HVilday and Interviewer-Line.
United Kingdom
Joined February 2026
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Outsider Projections retweeted
🚨 Interviewer-Line/Outsider Projections Holborn & St Pancras by-election model:
🌹LAB: 41.0 (7.9)
🌍GRN: 29.2 (+18.8)
🌳CON: 8.6 (+1.4)
🔶LDM: 7.1 (+1.3)
➡️RFM: 6.9 (+0.8)
🔁RES: 2.9
⚙️WPB: 1.9
💷UKIP: 0.54
🇪🇺REU: 0.4
👤IND: 0.38
✝️CPA: 0.36
🛠️CLG: 0.29
🎩MRLP: 0.24
Outsider Projections retweeted
🚨 UPDATE: The Climate Party was missing from this projection, they stand at 0.12%, with other parties rounded accordingly
Outsider Projections retweeted
Interviewer-Line and Outsider Projections have just seen our biggest update EVER.
Go onto the site to check out:
- Our House of Commons Nowcast
- Our US Senate Nowcast
- Interviewer-Line: Opinion, where YOUR opinion piece can be featured
and more!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
House of Commons Nowcast (20/09/2026)
Labour: 325
Conservative: 120
Reform: 77
Lib Dem: 72
SNP: 9
Green: 9
Plaid: 8
Your Party: 7
Independents: 4
Restore: 1
sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
Check out our all new Nowcast! the first nowcast with 0 'other', every constituency has the exact candidates for each party that you could predict!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
Check out Interviewer-Line: Opinion! where YOUR opinion piece can be published on our site!
Outsider Projections retweeted
read our new article: GAIN from reform: what happens next? where we interviewed councillors who gained their seats from Reform on their experiences.
sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn’s H&SP by-election prediction:
🌹 LAB: 38.5 (-10.4)
🌍 GRN: 23.6 (+13.2)
🫵 YRP: 11.4 (-7.5)
🌳 CON: 8.2 (+1.0)
🔶 LDM: 6.3 (+0.5)
➡️ RFM: 5.5 (-0.6)
🔄 RBN: 3.8
🇪🇺 🟣 REU/VUK: 2.0
🗑️ BIN: 0.3
🎩 MRL: 0.2
☑️ OTH: 0.1 (-2.6)
Change w/ GE2024
Our expressed purpose is to track and include outsider parties, hence Outsider Projections. If you wish for a simpler VI graph, might I recommend @electionmapsuk
Outsider Projections retweeted
Everyone is talking about the Labour overtaking reform crossover, but one that hasn’t been mentioned is the greens surviving better than the greens, overtaking them!
Look at the most detailed VI graph here: sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
And after all the votes are done it's confirmed we had the most accurate model, accurately predicting the first preference winner for every borough in GM!
Turns out taking outsiders into account also gets you greater accuracy!
Labour (Bev Craig) by borough
Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, 30 July 2026
FIRST PREFERENCES
Manchester: 54.0% (49,326)
Stockport: 50.2% (35,571)
Trafford: 50.0% (30,966)
Wigan: 47.0% (26,200)
Bury: 46.9% (18,837)
Salford: 46.8% (21,445)
Tameside: 41.8% (18,289)
Oldham: 41.6% (15,170)
Rochdale: 41.5% (15,927)
Bolton: 40.5% (19,718)
GM total: 47.1% (251,449)
SECOND ROUND (final)
Manchester: 82.5% (66,110)
Trafford: 74.0% (38,818)
Stockport: 71.2% (43,702)
Salford: 66.3% (26,839)
Bury: 63.1% (22,375)
Bolton: 57.7% (23,888)
Wigan: 57.3% (29,219)
Rochdale: 57.0% (18,951)
Tameside: 56.4% (21,868)
Oldham: 54.7% (17,755)
GM total: 66.3% (309,525)
And after all the votes are done it's confirmed we had the most accurate model, accurately predicting the first preference winner for every borough in GM!
Turns out taking outsiders into account also gets you greater accuracy!
Labour (Bev Craig) by borough
Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, 30 July 2026
FIRST PREFERENCES
Manchester: 54.0% (49,326)
Stockport: 50.2% (35,571)
Trafford: 50.0% (30,966)
Wigan: 47.0% (26,200)
Bury: 46.9% (18,837)
Salford: 46.8% (21,445)
Tameside: 41.8% (18,289)
Oldham: 41.6% (15,170)
Rochdale: 41.5% (15,927)
Bolton: 40.5% (19,718)
GM total: 47.1% (251,449)
SECOND ROUND (final)
Manchester: 82.5% (66,110)
Trafford: 74.0% (38,818)
Stockport: 71.2% (43,702)
Salford: 66.3% (26,839)
Bury: 63.1% (22,375)
Bolton: 57.7% (23,888)
Wigan: 57.3% (29,219)
Rochdale: 57.0% (18,951)
Tameside: 56.4% (21,868)
Oldham: 54.7% (17,755)
GM total: 66.3% (309,525)
Outsider Projections retweeted
the only place to track how our democracy may go!
check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's PR Referendum Nowcast! four maps, broken down by regions and nations, out now!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
the only place to track how our democracy may go!
check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's PR Referendum Nowcast! four maps, broken down by regions and nations, out now!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
Outsider Projections retweeted
check out Interviewer-Line and @OutsideProjectn 's PR Referendum Nowcast! four maps, broken down by regions and nations, out now!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
If you wish to see our polling sources, we'd be happy to show them, bit I can assure you that nobody at OutsiderProjections or InterviewerLine can afford coke
The only tracker that allows you see the outsiders polling stats without rooting through the crosstabs!
Check out Inteviewer-line and @OutsideProjectn 's VOTING INTENTION Tracker! utilising every aspect of polls, even the ones that break down other! the only place to track the performance of Your Party, the SDP< Workers' and more!
sites.google.com/view/interv…
