The only place on X focusing on the performance of outsider parties and elections. 📊 Twinned with @HVilday and Interviewer-Line.

United Kingdom
Joined February 2026
Outsider Projections & Interviewer-Line Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST: LAB: 37.0% RFM: 23.0% GRN: 16.4% CON: 10.5% RES: 7.0% LDM: 5.4% IND: 0.7% Second Round LAB: 47.0% RFM: 39.4% Look at the borough results on our website, with a heatmap and map for both rounds.
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Come see ours and Interviewer-Line's Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! the first and only of it's kind! link in replies :)
Interviewer-Line has gone through a rebrand, an update and a MERGER with @Outsiderpolling !, read 2 new articles, look at our Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! (the first of it's kind) and take some time to admire our new logos! sites.google.com/view/interv…
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new pollster? maybe an opportunity to widen the party list @thisisyourparty could win 12 seats under this model ➡️REF: 23% 🌹LAB: 19% 🌳CON: 15% 🔶LDM: 11% 🌍GRN: 9% 🇬🇧RES: 9% 🟥YP: 7% 🎗️SNP: 4% 🌻PC: 1% OutsiderPolling projection of @GoodGrowthFdn results
Westminster Voting Intention: RFM: 28% (+13) LAB: 21% (-14) CON: 20% (-4) GRN: 12% (+5) LDM: 12% (-1) SNP: 3% (=) Via @GoodGrowthFdn - New BPC pollster! - 13-16 Feb. Changes w/ GE2024.
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if @thisisyourparty were included in the under 65s vote, it could receive 23 seats!! ➡️REF: 187 (18%) 🌹LAB: 179 (18%) 🔶LDM: 93 (13%) 🌍GRN: 72 (18%) 🎗️SNP: 52 (4%) 🟥YP: 23 (10%) 🌻PC: 20 (2%) 🌳CON: 4 (11%) 🇬🇧 RES: 1 (7%)
The Green Party is leading with the entire under 65 cohort.
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Credit to @TheotherWill_NE for production of seat map Detailed map here:
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Under this poll, @thisisyourparty could get 25 seats! Projected vote share: ➡️REF: 20% (-4) 🌹LAB: 17% (-2) 🌳CON: 14% (-4) 🌍GRN: 14% (-3) 🔶LDM: 12% (-1) 🟥YP: 9% (+9) 🇬🇧RES: 9% (+9) 🎗️SNP: 3% (=) 🌻PC: 2% (+1) ⬜️OTH: 3% (-1) OutsiderPolling projection based on @YouGov results
Latest YouGov Westminster voting intention (15-16 February 2026) Reform UK: 24% (-3 from 8-9 Feb) Labour: 19% (=) Conservatives: 18% (=) Greens: 17% (+1) Lib Dems: 13% (-1)
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Results in greater detail here:
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Our model suggests that Restore would win 2 seats under this poll: ⬜️ Great Yarmouth 🟦 Keighley and Ilkley Restore also feature in some close marginals with this polling, such as: 🟦 Richmond and Northallerton (REF+1.9) 🟦 Rutland and Stamford (REF+1.8) 🟦 Tatton (REF+0.8)
🚨 NEW: A new poll shows Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain would get 10% of the vote ➡️ Reform UK - 25% 🟢 Green Party - 20% 🔴 Labour - 15% 🔵 Conservatives - 13% 🇬🇧 Restore Britain - 10% 🔶 Lib Dems - 10% Via @FindoutnowUK, 1,000 sample size
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📊Under this polling, @thisisyourparty could get 13 seats! 📈 ➡️REF: 25% (+11) 🌹LAB: 15% (-19) 🌳CON: 14% (-9) 🔶LDM: 12% (=) 🌍GRN: 11% (+4) 🇬🇧RES: 10% (+10) 🟥YRP: 7% (+7) 🎗️SNP: 3% (+1) 🌻PLC: 2% (+1) ⬜️OTH: 1% (-2) (+/- change with 2024)
📊NEW POLL: LATEST WESTMINSTER VOTER INTENTIONS Conservatives: 19% (-1) Labour: 17% (-2) Lib Dems: 14% (-1) Reform UK: 30% (+2) Greens: 15% (+2) SNP: 2% (=) Others: 3% (=) 1644 Surveyed Field Work: 11th & 12th February +/- 16th January Data: ll.ink/Lb52XT #UKPolitics
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