
The only place on X focusing on the performance of outsider parties and elections. 📊 Twinned with @HVilday and Interviewer-Line.
United Kingdom
Joined February 2026
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Outsider Projections & Interviewer-Line Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST:
LAB: 37.0%
RFM: 23.0%
GRN: 16.4%
CON: 10.5%
RES: 7.0%
LDM: 5.4%
IND: 0.7%
Second Round
LAB: 47.0%
RFM: 39.4%
Look at the borough results on our website, with a heatmap and map for both rounds.
Come see ours and Interviewer-Line's Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! the first and only of it's kind! link in replies :)
Interviewer-Line has gone through a rebrand, an update and a MERGER with @Outsiderpolling !, read 2 new articles, look at our Greater Manchester by-election NOWCAST! (the first of it's kind) and take some time to admire our new logos! sites.google.com/view/interv…
Detailed Map here
credit to @TheotherWill_NE
new pollster? maybe an opportunity to widen the party list
@thisisyourparty could win 12 seats under this model
➡️REF: 23%
🌹LAB: 19%
🌳CON: 15%
🔶LDM: 11%
🌍GRN: 9%
🇬🇧RES: 9%
🟥YP: 7%
🎗️SNP: 4%
🌻PC: 1%
OutsiderPolling projection of @GoodGrowthFdn results
Westminster Voting Intention:
RFM: 28% (+13)
LAB: 21% (-14)
CON: 20% (-4)
GRN: 12% (+5)
LDM: 12% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Via @GoodGrowthFdn - New BPC pollster! - 13-16 Feb.
Changes w/ GE2024.
if @thisisyourparty were included in the under 65s vote, it could receive 23 seats!!
➡️REF: 187 (18%)
🌹LAB: 179 (18%)
🔶LDM: 93 (13%)
🌍GRN: 72 (18%)
🎗️SNP: 52 (4%)
🟥YP: 23 (10%)
🌻PC: 20 (2%)
🌳CON: 4 (11%)
🇬🇧 RES: 1 (7%)
Credit to @TheotherWill_NE for production of seat map
Detailed map here:
Under this poll, @thisisyourparty could get 25 seats!
Projected vote share:
➡️REF: 20% (-4)
🌹LAB: 17% (-2)
🌳CON: 14% (-4)
🌍GRN: 14% (-3)
🔶LDM: 12% (-1)
🟥YP: 9% (+9)
🇬🇧RES: 9% (+9)
🎗️SNP: 3% (=)
🌻PC: 2% (+1)
⬜️OTH: 3% (-1)
OutsiderPolling projection based on @YouGov results
Our model suggests that Restore would win 2 seats under this poll:
⬜️ Great Yarmouth
🟦 Keighley and Ilkley
Restore also feature in some close marginals with this polling, such as:
🟦 Richmond and Northallerton (REF+1.9)
🟦 Rutland and Stamford (REF+1.8)
🟦 Tatton (REF+0.8)
🚨 NEW: A new poll shows Rupert Lowe's Restore Britain would get 10% of the vote
➡️ Reform UK - 25%
🟢 Green Party - 20%
🔴 Labour - 15%
🔵 Conservatives - 13%
🇬🇧 Restore Britain - 10%
🔶 Lib Dems - 10%
Via @FindoutnowUK, 1,000 sample size
📊Under this polling, @thisisyourparty could get 13 seats! 📈
➡️REF: 25% (+11)
🌹LAB: 15% (-19)
🌳CON: 14% (-9)
🔶LDM: 12% (=)
🌍GRN: 11% (+4)
🇬🇧RES: 10% (+10)
🟥YRP: 7% (+7)
🎗️SNP: 3% (+1)
🌻PLC: 2% (+1)
⬜️OTH: 1% (-2)
(+/- change with 2024)
📊NEW POLL: LATEST WESTMINSTER VOTER INTENTIONS
Conservatives: 19% (-1)
Labour: 17% (-2)
Lib Dems: 14% (-1)
Reform UK: 30% (+2)
Greens: 15% (+2)
SNP: 2% (=)
Others: 3% (=)
1644 Surveyed
Field Work: 11th & 12th February
+/- 16th January
Data: ll.ink/Lb52XT
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