@OrdOracle

Author of award winning newsletter and how to book regarding market timing analysis.

 Lincoln, Nebraska
ord-oracle.com
Joined April 2009
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Buffett Indicator shows us we are at the secular peak of overpriced growth assets vs undervalued real assets. Last time the indicator peaked was 1970 and 2000. Both times Gold and real assets went on a 10 year run.
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Tim Ord retweeted
PiQ
@PiQMarkets25 Oct 2022
🤔 Pretty certain I once bet on this one to win the Grand National…
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Speculative positioning in S&P 500 futures--bets on where investors think the S&P 500 will go--turned bearish in Jun and got more bearish since. That's despite a big rally in Jul. Implies that many still think this is a bear market rally and we could dip back down.
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Record low.
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Good time to remind everyone how 2022 started. Below from 12/31/21. Hindsight and real-time are nothing alike and any close < 4310 (-10% drop) at YE22 in n=0
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Special update on Gold: Daily Sentiment is turning UP from a Major capitulation. Every year since 2013, Gold started a huge year-end rally from similar conditions. Price may be finishing a *massive* Base at 2011 highs. The holidays could be getting started – watch closely.
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And likewise, $CPCE drops to 0.36, the lowest since mid June and one of the lowest in 20 years. Here’s all instances since 2004. Spot the pattern
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from the great @sentimentrader thanks for sharing! @DougKass @OrdOracle $GLD #Gold
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Junior Silver Miners Last Stand. They survived vs the metal itself in July & trying desperately to survive August's close. Feeling lucky? northstarbadcharts.com/kevin… Remember, arcs low risk, high reward is the lower right hemisphere, not the top right corner! #gamblerspicks
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Silver's "classic" commitment of traders review. Any questions?
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Last time $SPX closed lower was the day after being Africa hot. We’re Africa hot now again xitter.cf/ukarlewitz/status/1407…
Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz22 Jun 2021
Replying to @ukarlewitz
$SPY hit Africa hot at HOD (top panel). Chop, drop or gains given back usually follows. We had honey badger in April
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$SPX - If up 6 days in a row, 100% closed higher w/in next 5 days by avg 1%, R/R rises to 3:1 pos but n drops to 12. Up 7 drops n to 6 but up 100% and R/R back to 2:1 pos xitter.cf/ukarlewitz/status/1410…
Urban Carmel
@ukarlewitz1 Jul 2021
Replying to @ukarlewitz
$SPX up 5 days in a row for the first time in 3-1/2 months. Last 5 yrs, n=24. $SPX closed higher w/in the next 5 days in 23 of 24 (96%) by avg 0.8% (the one fauilure closed higher on Day 7). R/R 2:1 pos
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S&P Breadth remains strong: 5-Day Breadth nearly hit 70% – among the Top 5% *strongest* since 2009. Concern over Breadth is another example of Traders with "one foot out the door" all year. Pullbacks can happen – but this is not how Bull Markets usually end. Follow the Trend.
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With another 1.5% decline today, gold is on pace for just its 10th quarterly decline of 10%+ since 1975. bespokepremium.com/interacti…
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great read on #gold sentiment based on this, a bottom should be close @Convertbond @TheTechTraders @OrdOracle @PatrickCeresna thestreet.com/investing/gold…
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Great Interview with @OrdOracle he reveals some truly great tips that every trader should know. podcast.tradingstrategyguide…
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US$ Index (monthly) - Note regular multi-year cycles During COVID March panic/crash, $ failed to break above bull cycle peak registered in 2017. Is new bear-phase underway?
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Many similarities with 1999 - Lots of Bulls, Lots of Bears. NO ONE's expecting weeks/months of chops - Entering a new era, the "4th indus revolution", IoT,5G,EV - Valuations don't matter anymore, for now - Record # of new retail traders - Smart money's getting crushed
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$NYSI went < 0 in Sept to being on track to close ~940 today. The last time it closed >1000 was early June; $SPX promptly lost 8%. But, longer term, strong breadth momentum is a tailwind - not something that happens at bull market tops. Notes on chart
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The VIX Term Structure has reached full batmobile. This could be a major signal. Stay vigilant folks.
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