Really interesting dynamic unfolding here. Vol changed hands quite a bit yesterday—we saw corporate hedgers monetizing protection while short vol programs added to existing positions. That activity helped keep a lid on the vol as the market slid lower. It also explains why something like VVIX remained relatively muted. Today was a bit different. For the first time in a while, we saw a genuine reach for protection. Tails started to lift, and vol began to respond as the market started to digest the possibility of a more prolonged volatility regime on the tariff wars. The biggest thing I’m watching now is whether any PBs adjust margin requirements heading into the weekend. I’d expect some tightening given the headline risk. That, in turn, should keep vol more bid—and stickier—than what people have grown accustomed to with the usual “pop and drop.” I’m also keeping an eye on any large, abnormal prints getting shopped in the pit. When vol moves like this, people tend to panic and do silly things, which often lead to bigger errors. We’re getting overdue for a positive headline, and when that comes, I’d expect some air to come out of the belly of the curve. That would set up a good opportunity to add Vega to the 6M–1Y part of the surface. The first strong bounce will likely tempt participants into thinking we’re heading back to the old playbook. But this isn’t that. Vol’s going to continue showing its face throughout the year. This is not a covid one and done vol move.