Finally, kick-ass charts to build confidence in your trades. SPY / QQQ / BTC nightly. Chart requests in discord. |West Point '98| https://xitter.cf/t.co/qGxEJnOiUQ
Joined March 2009
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Options Johnny retweeted
BREAKING: The 15 largest S&P 500 stocks now account for a record 46.7% of the index’s market value.
By comparison, during the 2000 Dot-Com Bubble, the 15 largest stocks accounted for 27.2% of the S&P 500.
The remaining 485 stocks represent just 53.3% of the S&P 500’s market cap.
This comes as Nvidia, $NVDA, Apple, $AAPL, Alphabet, $GOOGL, and Microsoft, $MSFT, account for 7.5%, 7.1%, 5.9%, and 5.6%, respectively, or 26.1% combined.
This means just 4 stocks account for more than the next 11 combined.
Furthermore, the combined market cap of the 5 largest stocks now equals that of the bottom 434 stocks in the index, the largest gap on record.
Market concentration is at historic extremes.
Options Johnny retweeted
Good Luck with that "Strong Economy".
There are NO signs of it. On the Contrary!
It is the weakest it has ever been outside severe recessions. And it speaks volumes about how bad it is going to get.
NAHB leads Unemployment.
It will be UGLY.
(...and please make note of all the "economists" and "macro experts" who do not see it)
Options Johnny retweeted
Those who followed me over the years know ahead of each earnings season I discuss how if past is any guide the earnings growth for the coming earnings season can be expected to come in well above expectations at the start of the season.
According to Factset data, over the past 1, 5 & 10 yrs S&P 500 companies have beaten earnings expectations by 13.8%(!), 7.5% & 8.0% respectively, resulting in “inflation” to the earnings estimates on average over the quarter by 14.1%(!), 6.4% & 6.9% respectively over where they stood as of the start of the quarter (in this case June 30 which was 29.2%).
Using those averages would mean Q4 earnings could come in at +43.1%(!), 35.6%, or 36.1% respectively.
Actual earnings by the end of the quarter have failed to surpass expectations at the start of the quarter in only 3 of the past 43 quarters (Q1 ‘20, Q3 ‘22, and Q4 ‘22 are the only exceptions according to Factset).
🇺🇲 #SPX | S&P 500 Likely To Report Earnings Growth Above 35% for Q3 - Factset
insight.factset.com/sp-500-l…
Options Johnny retweeted
McElligott: Ten stocks drove 70% of the S&P's 23% rally since March 30, with Nvidia alone responsible for 13% of it, and Micron, Apple and Microsoft another 9% each. The other 490 stocks? 30%. Combined.
Options Johnny retweeted
The NFA is dead.
Holy shit.
LEGAL ALERT: The ATF has issued an open letter with guidance regarding the NFA ruling. You can read it here: atf.gov/media/30961/download
Options Johnny retweeted
Initial unemployment claims below 200k for a fourth week - first time since 1969 - and four-week average now the least since Sept 2022.
Continuing claim four-week average least since April 2023.
Options Johnny retweeted
Retail investors are rushing into Treasury ETFs:
Retail investors bought +$61 million of the 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF, $TLT, on Wednesday, their largest daily purchase in at least 12 months.
This follows +$59 million on Tuesday and +$50 million on Monday, bringing the 3-day total to +$170 million, retail's largest 3-day purchase since at least September 2025.
Retail daily purchases of $TLT have now exceeded +$20 million for 6 consecutive trading sessions ending Wednesday.
Before this week, retail demand for $TLT had not surpassed +$50 million in any single trading day in 2026.
Meanwhile, $TLT fell -1.9% this week, bringing the year-to-date decline to -8.0%.
The fund is now down -55.0% from its 2020 peak, its largest drawdown on record.
Retail investors are trying to buy the dip in Treasuries.
Options Johnny retweeted
The market will heavily discount today's PCE inflation data.
Why? Because the US just changed the way PCE inflation is calculated:
Beginning with today’s release, the US changed the methodology for 3 key PCE inflation categories and revised data back to 2021:
1. Portfolio management/investment advice
2. Computer software/accessories
3. Legal services
The biggest change is in portfolio management fees. Under the old methodology, rising asset values could show up partly as higher "prices" for portfolio management services.
For example, if an adviser charged 1% of assets and the portfolio rose 20%, the dollar fee would rise 20% even though the adviser did not raise the 1% fee.
The new methodology uses an employment-based measure to estimate the quantity of services, reducing the amount of the increase that is classified as inflation.
For software, the US now uses a broader composite. For legal services, an unpublished CPI series is being replaced because it had become "unusually volatile."
We estimate the methodology alone could reduce Core PCE inflation by up to 20 basis points.
In the PCE inflation data released just now, both headline and Core PCE inflation were revised down by 30 basis points for July.
We do not interpret the entire 30 basis point drop as disinflation.
Part of it is literally a measurement change.
Options Johnny retweeted
If you have not heard this news story, it is pretty big in the chemistry world. Being able to break down polyethylene cheaply is a big deal. It makes waste plastic more valuable, which makes it less likely people will just throw it into rivers where it flushes into the oceans.
Polyethylene contains approximately 46 megajoules of chemical energy per kilogram (about ten times the energy content of TNT by mass) stored stably in its carbon-hydrogen bonds rather than as explosive potential.
The Oak Ridge molten-salt process announced this week is essentially an engineered way to release that energy as liquid fuel rather than letting it sit in a landfill.
Options Johnny retweeted
The smartest people I know, and not necessarily the most academically gifted, possess weapons grade pattern recognition that they use mercilessly in every facet of their life.
Options Johnny retweeted
Yardeni: Multiplying mean income by the number of households shows that the 65+ group collectively received $3.87 trillion in income in 2025, more than any other age cohort (chart).
And Baby Boomers have accumulated enormous wealth over their working lives and can continue to spend out of those balance sheets in retirement (chart).
Taken together, the story is straightforward. America has more households, those households are increasingly older, and a growing share of income is attributable to older and higher-income consumers. That helps explain why aggregate spending remains resilient even as younger and lower-income households face more financial pressure.
It also fits our “G-shaped” economy thesis: Consumer strength is increasingly supported by generational wealth, not current income alone.
