Open Frontier retweeted
This week on Substack, I offer my thoughts on what the next Democratic Congress should do on trade and tariffs given (a) campaign commitments to overturn Trump tariffs, (b) political and policy realities; and (c) Trump's veto pen.
There is a long-term Congressional project of fundamentally rewriting U.S. trade law to expand and reform trade remedies and safeguards while narrowing Section 301 and Section 232. But that is not a Q1 2026 project. Instead, I recommend the next Congress focus on North America, excluding products, and repealing 338 and 122.
Link after the jump.
Tuesday's election should force a reckoning in crypto: not because the industry needs to switch parties, but because it must confront what it overlooked in pursuit of favorable policy.
Open Frontier retweeted
A few ideas on trade and economic security for the new Democratic congress:
1. Legislate no new tariffs on North America without Congress's approval. Repeal 338 and prohibit new uses of 301 and 232 within North America. Trump should still renegotiate USMCA and bring a new deal to Congress to address rules of origin, etc. Given USMCA passed 89-10 in the Senate and 385-41 in the House, there should be bipartisan support for this. (AD/CVD tariffs would still apply).
2. Pass a bill excluding various price-sensitive consumer goods (coffee, etc.) from U.S. 301 tariffs.
3. Pass--but amend--the Remote Access Security Act to limit foreign access to U.S. compute, but carve in companies based in NATO allies so that the Act doesn't end up being used against close U.S. friends and partners.
4. Codify chip export controls on China and close loopholes, including the loophole that allows sales of AI chips to China in exchange for a rev-share with the U.S. government.
Over the longer term the U.S. needs to do a deep rethink of its trade and tariff statutes (e.g., make safeguards more flexible and useful and expand AD/CVD duties, while adding more oversight to 232 and 301). But that is probably not a Q1 2027 project, whereas I think the four ideas above could be....
Open Frontier retweeted
After being one of the few crypto-aligned people willing to go on mainstream media (@60Minutes) and criticize World Liberty and the corruption around the project, I was yelled at by most of the policy people in the crypto space, told I didn't know what I was doing, that pissing off Trump and working with the Democrats was a mistake, lost consulting business from some of the more extreme folks, and was bluntly told I didn't get it.
Oddly, those people are now very quiet today.
( Other than perhaps @justinsuntron, who continues to wage his own one-man war against this. Politics makes for strange bedfellows indeed. )
By the way, if your policy or strategy people were telling you the things they were telling me? Fire them. And maybe call me. You're going to need some help.
The bad news is much of the crypto industry will now be a target for the new Congress, in many cases deservedly so for never taking risk or compliance seriously. The good news is big tech and AI are bigger targets, so at least crypto is less relevant and headline grabbing than ever.
There is a real risk of throwing the baby out with the bathwater, in a populist rage. Its the only thing keeping the economy afloat.
Carole House on the Open Frontier Pod, talking about the intersection of technology and democracy. youtube.com/shorts/qonUtnPwf…
Check out our newest podcast featuring Carole House: youtu.be/Ih3GvcfVP-M?si=sOHl…
Open Frontier retweeted
A touch-grass moment for the "AI and data centers are huge issues in the midterms" people
Open Frontier retweeted
Good @FT article about Chinese companies opening factories in Africa to serve the US market, generally tariff-free b/w AGOA and most African countries not facing Trump 301 tariffs.
US needs to rethink rules of origin—low tariff US-Africa trade should not benefit China….
Open Frontier retweeted
Big new IFP report from @GeorgiaCAdamson, @KonstantinPilz, and me on the US-China AI competition.
We spent the last 6 months digging into how Chinese AI companies’ access to compute and distillation of American models translate into the current US-China capabilities gap.
The result is a 23k-word research report, including an interactive analytical model that visualizes changes in the US AI lead under different policy interventions.
Our findings:
1. The US AI lead over China is currently only around 6 months.
2. The US could roughly double this lead, to over a year, using authorities already available to the federal government.
3. On chips: China’s access to AI chips will roughly double over the next year, with chips housed in data centers overseas accounting for roughly half of China’s 2027 compute.
4. On distillation: the current ~16x US training compute advantage would normally yield a 13-month lead. But we estimate adversarial distillation halves this to around 6.5 months.
5. Increasing the lead would have some obvious benefits:
- Give the US broadly a greater cyberdefensive advantage against Chinese threat actors.
- Give US AI companies breathing room to spend more R&D resources on making their systems safer and more secure, without fear of being overtaken by less safety-conscious Chinese competitors.
6. Provide the US government more leverage in negotiations with China about the future of AI.
7. The two most important interventions are:
- For BIS: Create a new end-use control to restrict China’s remote access to training clusters abroad — China’s largest and fastest-growing source of frontier-scale compute.
- For DOJ/FTC: Create a narrow safe harbor to allow US companies to coordinate on countering Chinese adversarial distillation.
8. Both interventions (and all the others we discuss in the report) are things the federal government could do today.
9. To estimate the effects of each policy intervention, we model the US lead as a function of its compute advantage over China and China’s ability to adversarially distill the capabilities of the US frontier.
10. The model makes many simplifying assumptions, but provides a useful way to assess and rank the impact of different policy interventions at a high level.
Read the full report here: ifp.org/how-to-increase-amer…
Open Frontier retweeted
Today I was in Washington DC to talk about financial privacy and the narrow path to non-dystopian digital ID. It was great to see @valkenburgh and @secparam, but I want to now expand on a point from our panel:
I think it is likely the BSA, as applied today, is unconstitional.
This is probably going to be surprising to a lot of you. After all, didn't the Supreme Court uphold the BSA as constitutional when it was challenged in 1974? Why yes, it most certainly did.
Have you read that opinion? I have. That same court said that the fact pattern today is likely unconstitional.
The case, for those unfamiliar, is California Bankers Assn. v. Shultz (416 U.S. 21). In it, when you read the actual decision, you find some interesting tidbits:
Title I recordkeeping requirements were upheld because mere recordkeeping was not a search, and the authorities asking a third party for individual pieces of data was thus not a search. Government access in that case still required orderly legal process.
Title II domestic reporting was largely a standing issue, pointing out there were not customers specifically challenging this at the time who had been clearly impacted.
Fifth amendment claims by depositors or the ACLU were considered speculative at the time, and did not note specific facts (nor privacy concerns) or even clear intent to engage in transactions in some cases.
Powell, who was joined by Blackmun, concurring with the majority, in fact specifically noted that “A significant extension of the regulations’ reporting requirements… would pose substantial and difficult constitutional questions.”
First: I think this case was correctly decided on the facts at the time, in the world where banking was largely done on paper, records searches were one at a time or at most small batches, and the amount of information a bank collected was far more limited. On the standing and non-ripeness points, those were probably also correct at the time, but I will note that doesn't make something constitutional, just that SCOTUS has a long history of punting on things until they have to confront it.
Second: the fact pattern today looks absolutely nothing like the fact pattern at the time. The expansiveness of a search is far greater, with banks involved in every asset of digital life and the transaction monitoring far more comprehensive than before. Previously, a BSA request could not get every purchase you had made over the past three months (thus also geolocating you at all those times), because that was all done in cash. Now it can.
In light of things like the recent Flock decisions at district courts finding Flock database searches without a warrant to be unconstitutional and the cell phone tower decision showing that non-particularized geofence warrants are also unconstitutional, it's hard for me to see how "we see your location constantly through your card always and then we turn tens of thousands of people's wroth of information over to the government with no individual suspicion" is going to pass muster.
The second point is in light of government pressure to close accounts, like the @USOCC just found in their report about the debanking of digital asset companies, the standing and ripeness arguments now look very different. There was, in fact, an actual nationwide dragnet at big banks to debank certain customers, partially pushed by regulators leaning on reputational risk, and the standing, harm, and ripeness issues created might be overcome here.
The third point is that the reporting requirements have expanded dramatically, exactly the thing the court itself cautioned against. "Hey gives us this one customer's info for transactions over $10k" is now "give us all transactions for all customers at all thresholds", and by waving their hands and screaming "third party doctrine", the Feds think this is somehow magically constitutional.
My view: it's not.
I think the time is right for someone to challenge this, and win.
Is digital ID inevitable? If so how can we make sure we properly tread the path to a non-dystopian digital ID? @valkenburgh moderates with @secparam and @austincampbell
Open Frontier retweeted
Day 3 of 30 trying a different AI tool for creative work every morning.
Today it’s the new @Figma agent, fresh out of beta.
Pros:
- Extremely well-executed design when given a template
- The context awareness is genuinely impressive. It paired images with the right features and even wrote new, on-brand copy
Cons:
- Slowww. Nearly 20 minutes for one landing page, though that might be a fair tradeoff for the quality
- It took a few tweaks to get my local font connected and spacing right
- This process wasn’t really fun. You prompt something then basically just sit there looking at a loading bar for 15 minutes. Doesn't feel particularly creative or engaging.
Live link to the prototype in the thread.
What should I try next?






















