NFL Research Test results: 0-3 π§ͺ
Mahomes U1.5 pass TDs: threw 2 β
Mims Jr. O9.5 rec yds: 0 catches β
Dobbins O49.5 rush yds: 36 on 8 carries β
The model's most confident props were the ones it overrated. Logged as test data. We don't retune a model off one game.
NFL Research Test π§ͺ paper pick
J.K. Dobbins OVER 49.5 rush yds
-118 BetRivers (4:23p ET)
Nuro proj: 77
β’ 50+ in 9 of 10 games last year
Risk: zero preseason snaps, Payton won't say his workload. Same Denver-controls-the-game lean as our Mahomes under, so not independent
NFL Research Test π§ͺ paper pick
Marvin Mims Jr. OVER 9.5 rec yds
-121 BetRivers (4:23p ET)
Nuro proj: 31 (median closer to 17)
β’ Cleared 9.5 in 12 of 16 games last season
β’ Listed as a starting WR tonight
Risk: Waddle and Sutton soak up the targets
NFL Research Test π§ͺ paper pick
Patrick Mahomes UNDER 1.5 pass TDs
-148 BetRivers (4:23p ET)
Nuro proj: 1.5
β’ 3 TD passes in 4 games vs Vance Joseph's D since 2023
β’ Undrafted rookie at LT vs last year's sack leaders
Risk: first game back from the ACL is a wildcard
NFL Research Lab π§ͺ
We're running tonight's DEN @ KC props through our new NFL model: live two-sided book prices, market movement and what cappers are posting.
Paper picks from a research sample we're still building. Not verified picks. Results posted after, win or lose.
NuroPicks πͺ retweeted
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