Nichola Dyer😷

The Atlantic is in uncharted territory in 2024. Severe marine heatwave conditions have rapidly developed in the Caribbean, Gulf of Mexico, and off the coast of Florida, with water temperatures already peaking in the low 90s in Florida. The Florida Keys and the Bahamas are already under a bleaching warning as ocean temperatures are at record-warm levels for late May, leading to accumulating heat stress for coral reefs and marine ecosystems. Water temperatures in some areas are up to 5-8°F above normal Nearly the entire tropical Atlantic is experiencing a marine heatwave, with virtually no areas seeing average or below-normal water temperatures across millions of square miles of ocean. These record hot ocean temperatures across the Atlantic will also provide more fuel for developing hurricanes. More heat in the ocean equates to more energy for hurricanes, exponentially increasing the upper limit and damage potential of hurricanes. Just a 2°F rise in sea surface temperatures can increase a hurricane's wind speeds by over 13%. This means a 140 mph Category 4 hurricane can become a 160 mph Category 5 (in favorable atmospheric conditions), with nearly 3x the damage potential. The combination of La Niña, which leads to favorable conditions for hurricane development (low wind shear and weaker trade winds), and the record-warm tropical Atlantic has prompted NOAA to issue its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record for 2024.