Ex-Global Macro PM/Trader/Partner at Balestra Capital. Private investor and always looking for new ideas, as well as discussing macro & golf
Chicago, IL
Joined March 2013
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Paging @Peter_Atwater - someday we'll look back at this and see all the signs of a top were there in plain sight.
bloomberg.com/news/features/…
Norman Cerk retweeted
This post has one audience: Chicago Aldermen
Ahead of the Sept 16 vote on the PRO Ordinance it is important to remember one point.
The groups pushing this ordinance are the same ones who pushed Bring Chicago Home. Voters smartly rejected this tripling of the real estate transfer tax because they wisely deduced that it would chill the construction of new housing. LA has proven that this is exactly what would have happened in Chicago had BCH passed (see attached).
The group drafting this ordinance does not care about renters. They do not care about what will happen to the amount of new supply. Their instincts about the outcome of this ordinance are totally incorrect, just like they were with BCH, so anything they say should be met with skepticism. And we, the same people who over and over again correctly warned that BCH would put pressure on new housing, the people engaged in providing housing in this city, are saying unequivocally this ordinance will harm renters and the system overall.
This is a bad solution in search of a problem. What Mayor Johnson is doing is an election year stunt to help his abysmal approval rating and to exact revenge on his political adversaries in the real estate industry.
Protect Chicago's renters by voting NO on PRO.
@aldermanscott24 @AldReilly @RaymondALopez @gilbert36ward @AldConway @50thWardChicago @LamontJRobinson @Alderman_Beale @AldermanHopkins @AldermanHMoore @AldMattMartin @AldermanTabares @ward32chicago @ald_nicolelee @ILforDowell @yancyforthe5th @AldGregMitchell @AldermanHarris @AldSColeman16
@mattoshea19 @Emmamitts371 @40thforward @aldnapolitano41 @AldKnudsen43 @AldLawson
European pro travel tip for summer if you’re flying through @CPHAirports change your flight or arrive about 4 hours before your flight. The passport control is just ridiculous and I’ll never transfer there or fly @flysas again. What a fiasco.
@thepointsguy
Such a great read!
This is the Revenge of the Old Economy in real time.
A super cycle already underway before Hormuz closed.
Brent will break out. The security premium is not transitory.
Three drivers. Not fading. Intensifying.
Deglobalization. Electrification. Redistribution.
All three turbo-charged versus our 2020 super cycle call.
We are still in the bottom of the first inning. None of the imbalances have been resolved. They grow by the day.
Own the grains/softs. Own the metals. Own the molecules.
Remember, you cannot print molecules carlyle.com/carlyle-compass/….
10/10
Property tax bills late again in Chicago. @AldReilly ran a good campaign and should have won. I guess the democratic machine is tha entrenched in the city and unfortunately we have another 4 yrs of terrible leadership. Let’s not make the same mistake next yr with mayor.
My mayor @spencerpratt with the greatest campaign music video I have ever seen! This song is now stuck in my head! For those who don’t know me, I literally got into politics by becoming the homeless vigilante of Los Angeles, cleaning up the streets and getting rid of bums because my mayor did nothing. I did not want to give up on this city. I will do whatever I can to get Spencer elected and make Los Angeles glam again.
This is just so well done. It’s a shame the @chicagotribune couldn’t do this kind of investigative work.
Taxpayers and billionaire philanthropists have spent around $1 billion on “violence interrupter” programs in Chicago over the past decade.
The backers include some of the biggest names in politics and business, like Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of Steve Jobs, and Governor J.B. Pritzker.
There’s just a few problems—@Olivia_Reingold found more than two dozen instances of violence interrupters getting arrested, including a murder charge.
Just such a powerful and well-written piece. Required reading.
We don't have public restrooms because they'd be trashed in days.
We don't build bus stops because they'd become homeless shelters.
We don't have dense walkable cities because nobody wants to be accosted by strangers.
This is because we have chosen to accept public disorder, and as the rest of the world shows, it doesn't have to be that way
walkingtheworld.substack.com…
Fingers crossed. Wake up Chicago - time for change !
What an amazing podcast - must listen. Just appalling how @UHC & other insurance cos treat their members. Thank you Steve and @GetClaimable !! podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
Such a well-written article from the @ChicagoContrar1 Our city is run by a bunch “activists” with zero real world experience and it shows! chicagocontrarian.com/blog/c…
Great article in @chicagotribune today. Too bad they don’t do more of these to expose the corruption and back room quid pro quos.. chicagotribune.com/2025/12/2…
Norman Cerk retweeted
Earlier this year, a jury of her peers found Toni Preckwinkle’s political committee guilty of lying about a political opponent & was ordered to pay $1.47 million in restitution.
It is no surprise Toni Preckwinkle is already attacking my record with dishonest attack ads. She can’t run on her own record of shady ethics and policy failures, so she is trying to smear and distort my record of service.
Please watch this video & share.
The court of law may not be able to stop Toni Preckwinkle’s campaign from lying, but together, we sure can.
Norman Cerk retweeted
Mayor Johnson bears full responsibility for this. He allowed this to happen by allowing mentally unstable people to roam our streets and @cta. Public accommodations put our public safety at considerable risk. @ChicagosMayor must be held accountable. He must RESIGN NOW!
I remember investing in Russia in 1999, post default, entire Russian stock market cap was 1/3 value of Yahoo. Just looked at approximate market capitalization of top 10 gold cos globally, about 500B vs 5T for NVDA. Okay…..
Norman Cerk retweeted
@RaymondALopez @AldReilly @ChicagosMayor How can these cosplaying morons get a permit to stop traffic up and down Michigan Avenue almost every weekend ? What a waste of CPD resources. It’s like 100 protesters who went up the avenue one way and now back down - make it stop!
Norman Cerk retweeted
WATCH: Even MSNBC's Joe Scarborough is baffled that Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson won't just give a straight answer when it comes to the safety of his city.
This is difficult to watch.
@RaymondALopez Alderman, asking a serious question here, are these cosplaying Leftist/Free Palestine groups that regularly hold up traffic on Michigan Avenue required to have a permit? There were about 100 of them marching with cops having to stop traffic.
Norman Cerk retweeted
I can think of about 150 officers who could be put to better use. If Johnson trimmed down his bloated security detail and reassigned those officers to rapid-response teams stationed near hotspots for teen takeovers, the city might actually get the protection it needs.
