Jozza

What the next few months will look like: Next Claude model gets released late September, a Fable successor. It’s not going to be that good, people realise that AI has hit a wall (which already happened around Opus 4.6) and exponential growth/synthetic data was a lie. Open source models start catching up, they also hit the wall around late October. AI models become as good as they can be for extremely dirt cheap, there will be no more growth. Late October is also when Anthropic IPOs, around $2T valuation. The IPO is an instant nuke, too much supply overhang from private investors as well as wider retail figuring out that AI growth has been all a marketing scam. Whole AI industry gets dragged down with it except the Buffett stocks, it’ll be an industry specific isolated crash instead of a wider market one. Coincidentally, the fed hikes interest rates at around the same time (late October), further cascading the market. Bitcoin hits $50k Mid November time the AI-adjacent stocks end up haemorrhaging whatever is left of the stock market, 30-40% crash in the S&P. December 2026-January 2027 the fed pivots and markets start rallying again. April 2027 more Anthropic shares get unlocked from private investors, gets absorbed easily as the market is in a printing phase. Will still trade at around $700b Bitcoin doesn’t follow though, keeps going down until it remains steady at ~$40k Good luck everyone.