Syria, Russia, Ukraine analyst, now making a complex world accessible. Ex-editor @Interpreter_Mag & @RFERL. Featured in @thedailybeast, @Reuters, @ForeignPolicy

Worcester, MA
Joined December 2008
The time has come to say the quiet part out loud, and change our mission from observation to action. There will be no more elections. The media has failed us. Our political leaders have failed us. It is time to act. thecasualanalyst.com/blog-1/…
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Ran a scenario on #Irkutsk. A lab technician at Russia's Anti-Plague Institute died on 2 October of suspected #pneumonic #plague. Several hospitals are sealed for three weeks and about 200 contacts are under observation. Moscow still calls it pneumonia of unknown origin. (1/5)
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My thanks to everyone expressing their outrage and concern. Of course there are millions of people whose lives are threatened by Russia every day in Ukraine, and Ukrainian victory remains the best form of security for me, my colleagues, and all of Europe.
putin’s desperate plot to silence Garry Kasparov on American soil. putin’s regime has once again proven that it operates less like a legitimate government and more like a transnational mafia syndicate. According to an explosive investigative report by the Spanish newspaper El Mundo, the Kremlin’s intelligence hit squads reached all the way into the United States in a cowardly attempt to murder legendary chess champion and fearless pro-democracy leader Garry Kasparov. For years, @kasparov63 has used his massive global platform to speak truth to power, exposing the corruption, brutality, and lawlessness of putin’s dictatorship. Unable to defeat his ideas with arguments, the Kremlin resorted to its default language: violence and terror. U.S. authorities had to step in this summer to directly warn Garry Kasparov that he was a top target for Kremlin assassins, forcing official security measures to shield his life. This wasn't just a vague threat. Court documents and investigative reports reveal a chilling network of operatives hunting anti-putin voices across borders. While putin’s thugs tried to outsource their dirty work, offering pocket change to mercenaries to stalk targets in Washington, the plot exposes the utter panic inside the Kremlin. Dictators like putin are terrified of brilliant, uncompromised voices like Kasparov who remind the world that a free, democratic Russia is possible. This assassination plot shatters the illusion that critics are safe once they leave Russia. Yet, for all their dark money, surveillance networks, and hired thugs, the Kremlin's desperation only reveals their weakness. They can threaten, stalk, and plot, but they will never silence Garry Kasparov, nor the unstoppable demand for freedom.
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BIG: A U.S. federal court has sentenced former Adra Prison director Samir Othman Al-Sheikh to 60 years in prison for torture, conspiracy to commit torture, immigration fraud, and attempted U.S. citizenship fraud.
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This Syrian man had hidden his private library inside his home since late 2011, before fleeing the country. At the time, simply possessing a banned book could have led to imprisonment in one of Assad’s detention centers—and potentially death under torture.
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How are all my Syrian & Syria watcher friends holding up? I'll tell you, over here the survivor's guilt is pretty bad. I don't feel guilty about any other story I've ever covered. And I can't write about it, believe me, I've tried. I guess that's where it comes from Love y'all
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Ex-Syrian commander claims missing US journalist Austin Tice was executed bbc.com/news/articles/cvg72g… @saraobeidat and I have been looking into this for some time as part of our investigation. Derba Tice who we were with in Beruit does not think the claim is true.
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JFC.
Jared Kushner says peace should be a “win-win” deal that helps Putin achieve his “aspirations.”
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... so send in the clowns. archive.ph/f2eUT
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"Every single day spent in war pushes humanity backward." PM Modi directly told Putin to end his war against Ukraine.
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👀
BREAKING: Power plant in eastern Germany hit by several "homemade rockets" packed with explosives, according to Märkische Allgemeine Zeitung maz-online.de/brandenburg/br…
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Just a pop-in. Suggests a message was conveyed. Seems doubtful he saw VVP, who'd have kept him waiting til next week.
UPDATE: CIA Director Ratcliffe's flight leaves Moscow @MATA_osint @ArmchairAdml
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If I had to wager, I’d say Ratcliffe is in Moscow to warn about Russian escalation against Europe/NATO. Linked to U.S. intelligence shared with Poles, Balts and Scandinavians, and comes amid a noticeable uptick in suspected GRU sabotage operations and Russian drone activity. See Germany, Bulgaria, Romania, etc. You don't need DCIA for prisoner swaps. Ratcliffe is also the most pro-Ukraine official in the administration, responsible for helping Kyiv with deep strikes. Context here is important: Bill Burns went to Moscow in 2021 to warn Putin against... invading Ukraine.
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We burned through two-thirds of our Patriot missile stockpile in a war with Iran, a war Trump was desperate to get out not long after it started and which has resulted in the IRGC’s control of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Ukrainians who offered their help with counter-drone technology early into that war are now being killed by ballistic missiles they can’t intercept.
“Ukraine will not be able to expect many interceptors -- or any interceptors -- from the United States for quite a while," CSIS’ Mark Cancian tells @RFERL 👇
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The commander of U.S. European Command has privately warned the Pentagon that he does not have enough naval forces to continue defending Israel against Iranian ballistic missile attacks and may soon have to prioritize defense of the U.S. homeland unless another Navy destroyer is assigned. The warning from Gen. Alexus Grynkewich underscores the growing strain the Iran war has placed on U.S. military resources. The Washington Post reports that near-daily operations have stretched the Navy's destroyer fleet, while previous reporting from The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, and Reuters has detailed mounting concerns over dwindling stocks of Patriot and other air defense interceptors needed to protect U.S. forces and allies. The Pentagon declined to comment on the correspondence, but officials told the Post the warning reflects the military's process for alerting senior leaders when operational risks begin to exceed available resources. Source: washingtonpost.com/national-…
EXCLUSIVE: The top U.S. general in Europe has privately warned the Pentagon that he needs more naval forces if he is to continue protecting Israel from incoming ballistic missiles. Destroyer deployments and maintenance are at issue after months of war with Iran, officials say.
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North Korea sends troops to wage war in Europe. Iran sends Shahed drones and missiles to Russia to wage war in Europe, and IRGC trainers to Crimea to show them how to use the drones. China helps Russia evade sanctions to wage war in Europe and now, per Reuters, even trains Russian troops to wage war in Europe. Ukraine hits one Iranian cargo ship carrying military equipment and suddenly wars are merging and it might even be World War III.
NEW from @nytimes: Don't call it World War III — yet. But Ukraine's strike on an Iranian ship shows how the two wars could merge into one cataclysmic conflict across Eurasia and the Middle East. Zelensky talks about common elements of both wars, and he met with Trump this week.
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