amateur wx forecaster primarily focused on NJ/NYC/EPA. Occasionally dabbling in biology/metabolic heath. All views expressed are my own.

New Jersey, USA
Joined June 2017
Mike Mostwill retweeted
This nor’easter is forecast to make just 10 miles of net northward progress over 37 hours from late Saturday to midday Monday 🤯 The storm's pit stop near New York and New Jersey will keep water levels elevated through several high tide cycles, leading to major coastal flooding.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
18z Euro AIFS is certainly something... the trend for a stronger, slower, tucked ULL just off the NJ coast seems to be coming to fruition. This will worsen impacts on Sunday from the eastern shore to NYC, with impacts being felt as far west as the DC/Balt region. Big hit for NJ/NYC. #MdWx
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
I am decently confident somewhere between Perth Amboy, NJ and Saratoga Springs, NY will walk away with double digit rainfall totals. We don’t know who exactly, and it will be isolated, but this is the perfect environment for something like that to happen.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
A significant event is looking more likely Saturday. Multiple rounds of storms expected, which may begin before noon and extend after sunset. There is a significant risk of wind damage, w/ a notable risk of flooding & potential for tornadoes. See reply post for larger graphics.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Can’t get over how wild this is. Disturbance rapidly fires off storms as it encounters a likely boundary setup at the edge of thick Canadian wild fire smoke.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Forecasts are trending to a longer period of smoke unfortunately.
Smoke forecast over the next 48 hours. Not much relief unfortunately.
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HRRR model simulated vertically integrated smoke from tonight through 12pm on Thursday. Oof.
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A string of wildfires that has erupted across Northern Minnesota and Southern Ontario is going to be a major player in our air quality here over the next few days...
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#WPC_MD 0652 affecting Central Appalachians through the Mid-Atlantic, #nywx #njwx #pawx #dewx #mdwx #vawx #dcwx #wvwx #ohwx, wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/m…
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
These precipitable water values are quite concerning for tomorrow. We shall see what happens tomorrow.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
It's fair to say New York City narrowly dodged a bullet today. Sitting between 2 intense bands on the Raritan Bay to LI and near I-84, NYC experienced subsidence while 15 miles S of Midtown saw very heavy rain. Why the location of these super bands matter yet are hard to predict.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
WPC issues Day 1 Moderate Risk Excessive Rainfall Outlook at Jul 5, 15:41z for PHI wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess…
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Models differ on location, but I am definitely concerned about potential for flash flooding tonight into tomorrow morning. Training storms amid a juiced atmosphere could quickly dump a month’s worth of rainfall in a narrow corridor in the Northeast while others see very little.
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Watch as this supercell goes from raggedy to fully sculpted in this 360 timelapse. Easily the best structure I've seen since moving to NJ and probably the best looking supercell I've seen in the northeast in several years. #NJwx
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
EXTREME BLIZZARD CONDITIONS are blasting Plymouth, MA as of 6:00 AM Monday. Wind gusts up to 65 MPH currently…
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By far the worst conditions of this blizzard so far in New York City. Heavy snow, gusty winds and visibility less than 1/4 of a mile. #nywx
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Central Bergen county. Legit blizzard-like conditions
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Detailed snow banding discussion: With CAMs now in agreement on the synoptic aspects of the storm, there's higher confidence on the mesoscale snow banding evolution. 1⃣ Short term -- An ongoing zonally oriented frontogenetic band associated with the mid-level warm front is slowly pushing north into DE & southern NJ, producing large aggregates and heavy wet snow. This band will continue slowly moving north & intensifying today. 2⃣ This evening/tonight -- As the surface low & upper-level trough become increasingly aligned and the surface cyclone rapidly deepens, the mid-level low becomes occluded and its associated front pivots towards a SSW-NNE alignment. This will lead the convergence & warm air advection forced frontogenesis swath to pivot in that direction, with a slow-moving to near stationary snow band setting up from Delaware to southern NJ & Philly metro. Heavy snow rates upwards of 2-3"/hour are expected with this band. 3⃣ Late tonight/early tomorrow -- As the cyclone and its associated low-level jet (LLJ) rapidly strengthen, the LLJ rotates towards the southeast, with strong offshore convection along the triple point of the cyclone rotating into the cold conveyor belt in an area of strong isentropic ascent, producing heavy snow bands in excess of 2-4"/hour moving from SE to NW through the NYC metro and merging into the dominant pivoting snow band, now likely over the western half of NJ. Thundersnow isn't out of the question with these convective bands. 4⃣ Tomorrow -- As the occluded cyclone moves off to the northeast, forcing for ascent becomes increasingly disjointed from the cyclone center and more rapidly moves off to the northeast. This will lead to strong low-mid level warm air advection & associated frontogenesis pushing through RI & eastern MA early tomorrow, producing snow rates over 2-4"/hour, but without the kind of pivoting snow bands expected out west.
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It gon' snow...ALOT. We follow @MikeMostwill for the most accurate forecasts and you should too! #snow #blizzardof2026 #mikemostwill #wheressummer #meteorology
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Mike Mostwill retweeted
Given the intensity and dynamics at play with this Nor’easter, THUNDERSNOW is a legit possibility from Delaware to Massachusetts at the height of the storm. With peak snowfall rates of 2-4” per hour, this will be some of the most intense snow you may ever see.
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