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Don’t worry.
AI data centers form only the compute layer.
You need a network layer and an application layer.
A suitable justification for the current AI data center capex is not LLMs or code, but physically interconnected products (not just smartphones and personal computers) that form the commercial layer of the AI stack that you can’t get without networking.
The network “hyperscalers” in the West will be $T, $TMUS, and $VZ. Their suppliers will be $NOK and $ERIC. We’ll also have $CSCO there, and $SPCX will contribute through satellite networking.
Network capex will be crazy, much crazier than AI data centers, and it will drive people even crazier, but it will result in a much more sustainable product than AI data centers, since network investments are more durable and less affected by chip optimization (see the dot-com bubble for more).
And yes, robots are coming, but they won’t be just humanoids or of humanoid form, but rather free-form.
Prime Minister Netanyahu just lost the upcoming elections in Israel.
A lot of liquidity is coming back to Israel.
Retail traders are buying.
Retail traders are happy.
Retail traders do not know when the buyback window in Korea ends.
Oh, sorry - ended*
The last guardian of this market, $SVIX, has fallen.
It actually topped at around $30.44, which is why I was extremely bearish going into it, and more so after it reversed.
Why around $30.44? Turns out Ichimoku Cloud is a thing, a very big thing.
I don’t think people gave this post the credit and attention it deserves.
There is a Soros in the water, probably several, and they are hungry.
When you buy US Treasuries, you go into that water.
Oh, and if you choose to go that route, I suggest you brush up on the connection between Mr. Soros and the two people most important in these waters: the current Fed chair and the current Treasury Secretary.
To win the arena, you need to know the arena, and to know the arena, it is enough to know the people who make it.
Who wants to be the next George Soros?
*BESSENT: BUYBACKS COULD BE BIGGER THAN THE $4B WE ANNOUNCED
*BESSENT: US YIELDS DON'T REFLECT UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTALS
*BESSENT: LIQUIDITY IN 30-YEAR POINT ESPECIALLY POOR
The best way to discover if there are sharks in the water is to throw a little bit of food into the water and see how fast it disappears.
Also works with whales.
Now you should ask yourself: Why are they here?
You are wrong.
The downward move is just starting.
Advice 1: When the VIX does what it did today, and you don’t know why, and it happens during option expiration, which is known for its pinning, you should look to stay out of whatever it is you don't know about.
Advice 2: Value what you don’t know more than what you know. Especially value what you know you don’t know.
Stock buybacks are dangerous:
1. Especially in companies that rocketed x20 in less than a year.
2. Even more so in companies that have the money to do so but are operating in an environment where they are the only buyers.
The current crypto world is a cocoon from
which quantum computing will emerge.
A new, better, and, more importantly, safer crypto world will come after. But the crypto world we all know now is propped up to basically become an exhibition of force that will usher in quantum computing.
And yes, Bitcoin is in the midst of its 1929 crash.
New Commentary.....
The CBOT Bond future is Negatively Convex such that a further rate rise could create the equivalent of Scott Bessent selling $110 Billion twenty-year bonds into the market.
Today, I detail the construction of this futures contract and posit that this could be a contributing factor to why interest rates have risen so quickly.
More specifically, be careful that 6% on the twenty-year rate could become a Convexity Vortex.
convexitymaven.com/wp-conten…
@profplum99 @LukeGromen @dampedspring @jam_croissant @biancoresearch @EconguyRosie @ErikSTownsend @tracyalloway
Hey, @TruthGundlach
Please don’t sit down for an interview or talk with Dave Rosenberg again.
The first thing Dave says is that he won’t talk much because you can hear him every week in his podcast. Then he goes on to talk for 80% of the time, saying the most trivial takes I could get from any third-tier language model that just regurgitates what it found online, without an ounce of originality.
Complete waste of time.
It was also excruciating to listen to him say that if a recession comes, he’ll buy treasuries hand over fist, because that shows he didn’t even do his homework by listening to you before the interview.
I want to hear you more, and podcasters less.
youtu.be/c929kxoH6q8?is=ep1z…
The US government is perceived as so weak and prone to concessions in the midst of the Iran war that even Anthropic and OpenAI are attacking US assets to get things from this administration, exactly like Iran’s terror regime.
Pathetic.
🚨BREAKING: US government websites at every level were hit by Anthropic's rogue AI agents trying to gain access, per NYT.
Here's what the rogue agents did:
- Pulled access tokens from a local government's map site to query its server
- Tapped a state agency's paid database without paying the fee
- Submitted a real government form after a practice copy failed to load
- Sent a police department a fake murder tip
Anthropic says some of the cases involved websites run by "U.S. government agencies at the federal, state, and local levels."
It has briefed the White House and notified every agency involved.
