Fintech Data Scientist @currensea and Pollster @ElectCalculus, RTs/Likes/Quotes/Follows not endorsement, Views my own.
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The BBC's Projected National Share in GB translates into the following seat tally:
➡️REF: 376 (+371)
🌹LAB: 113 (-299)
🔸LD: 71 (-1)
🌳CON: 12 (-109)
🟢Green: 5 (+1)
Reform Majority of 100.
Bright bit of news for the Greens despite yesterday's by-election in Holborn and St Pancras.
Squeezing a gain from the Conservatives because of a fractured right.
50/50 implies Labour or Greens win within a percentage point or two.
This won't happen.
Labour will win Holborn and St Pancras by more than 10 points.
Bookmark this.
🚨 NEW: Zack Polanski says he won’t resign as Green Party leader if he loses in Holborn and St Pancras
“It doesn’t depend on it whatsoever… I think it’s probably 50-50 right now”
[@guardian]
Labour has held the Claremont ward in Blackpool, which on paper should be a very comfortable Reform win.
Right vote split, left vote consolidated.
I don't know if there was a huge local issue at play here, but on paper this result sums up the Green's fortunes outside of cities: horrendous.
This sort of result also confirms why in seats like North Herefordshire and Waveney Valley, the Greens are doomed.
The Right (Conservative/Reform/RESTORE) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote, yet they are projected to receive 40% of the seats across GB.
The Left (Labour/LibDem/Green/Nationalist) is forecast to receive 49% of the vote. They are projected to receive 60% of the seats across GB.
The Right in Britiain has never been more divided.
🚨SEPTEMBER MRP POLL 2026🚨
We at @electcalculus asked over 5k people who they intended to vote for in the 2029 GE.
Seats tally
🌹LAB: 288 (-124)
🌳CON: 165 (+44)
➡️Reform: 84 (+79)
🟠LD: 61 (-11)
🟢Green: 7 (+3)
🟡SNP: 18 (+9)
🟡PC: 7 (+3)
🇬🇧RES: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE 2024
🚨SEPTEMBER MRP POLL 2026🚨
We at @electcalculus asked over 5k people who they intended to vote for in the 2029 GE.
Seats tally
🌹LAB: 288 (-124)
🌳CON: 165 (+44)
➡️Reform: 84 (+79)
🟠LD: 61 (-11)
🟢Green: 7 (+3)
🟡SNP: 18 (+9)
🟡PC: 7 (+3)
🇬🇧RES: 1 (+1)
Changes w/ GE 2024
3/ The Greens appear to be going back in their rural seats of Herefordshire North and Waveney Valley with the Conservatives currently projected to take back both seats.
Those losses, however, are offset by gains in urban areas like London and Greater Manchester.
Interesting idea in principle, but how would such a card work at a supermarket or corner shop where the merchant is Tesco, Sainsbury's etc..?
You buy groceries and booze and cigarettes all in one transaction.
Almost impossible to discriminate as to what one buys.
By-election projection for Holborn & St Pancras constituency:
🌹 LAB: 46% (−3)
🟢 Green: 35% (+25)
🌳 CON: 6% (−1)
➡️ RFM: 6% (−)
🟠 LD: 4% (−2)
⚪ OTH: 3%
LAB -> Green swing: 14%
LAB Hold
No surprises here.
Burnham wins in Holborn and St Pancras and the Greens are quashed.
The Right is divided and the left is united.
Perfect opportunity for an early election from Burnham's perspective.
My hunch is Labour wins Holborn and St Pancras by more than a 10% margin.
Exclusive for @Independent: Starmer by-election is Burnham’s ‘test run’ for early general election, according to Labour sources
independent.co.uk/news/uk/po…
Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 retweeted
You’re going to want to RSVP to this one. 👀
THE AYN RAND LECTURE 2026.
ASI Co-Founder Dr Madsen Pirie delivers this year’s Ayn Rand Lecture: ‘A Rational Life’ at Drapers’ Hall, London.
📅 Monday 26 October
📍 Drapers’ Hall
⚠️ Limited spaces available
🎟️ RSVP: buff.ly/0rOMgBd
The first by-election in Greater London of this Parliament and a seat that is very fertile territory for the Greens.
Outside of Andy Burnham's stronghold of Greater Manchester, this is his first major electoral test.
NEW via @NewJournal Keir Starmer is standing down as an MP camdennewjournal.co.uk/artic…
This is the first council by-election result I've seen that matches the narrative of the Burnham bounce.
Labour getting more than double the vote of Reform UK, in a split ward that Labour very narrowly held onto only 3 months ago.
Perhaps the Burnham bounce is only an electoral phenomenon in the North.
Marwan🇲🇦🇬🇧 retweeted
Yup. I texted a journalist earlier that I’d have expected half this number. 43% - and only fifteen points down on general - is really rather high given the lack of other parties standing
“This is the number that I'm actually most interested in.”
Luke Tryl, UK director of polling company More in Common, says that the provisional turnout in the Clacton by-election of around 43% suggests that a significant number of people have gone out to vote.
#Newsnight