Electoral Calculus (https://xitter.cf/t.co/4i0ISPybeH) is a quantitative political consultancy, well-known for its website of election predictions and data.
United Kingdom
Joined September 2016
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Electoral Calculus retweeted
Labour surges in London under @andyburnham premiership, @ElectCalculus @FindoutnowUK survey finds standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Our latest MRP poll with @PLMRLtd predicts that if there were a general election now, #Labour would win 353 seats, a majority of 56.
#Conservatives would be the official opposition on 90 seats and #Reform would be third on 81 seats.
Full figures ⤵️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
With a more crowded political arena than ever, understanding constituency level shifts is essential. 📊
That's where MRP comes in. We break down how it works and the maths behind the map in the latest episode of Politics by Numbers! 🗳️
Watch here ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=c70P1uS5…
Our latest poll-of-polls puts #Labour just 13 seats short of a majority, up 1pc over September as #Reform loses 1pc.
This is Labour’s strongest seat prediction since Oct 2024.
On these numbers #Labour could form a very workable majority with the #LibDems
electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
General Election prediction for Keir Starmer's seat, Holborn and St Pancras, shows Labour holding if a GE were held now, with a tight contest against the Greens.
Please note this is a general election prediction not a by-election prediction, as by-elections behave differently.
Our voter transition graphic shows how party support has changed since the 2024 GE.
• Established parties continue to lose votes
• Insurgent parties gain
• Few voters crossover between left and right
Full graphic⬇️
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
and video⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=qF0aOxDq…
There has been a 'Burnham bounce' in the polling numbers this month with Labour back in first place and Reform UK in third. When translated into seats, this puts Labour ahead of the Conservative by over 100 seats.
More details: electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
Should Andy Burnham call a snap general election?
In the latest Politics By Numbers episode, we look at what history tells us about PMs who inherit office between elections and the surprising link between Sir Keir Starmer and Sir Winston Churchill ⬇️
youtube.com/watch?v=OYGvjPJu…
Tune in to yesterday's @bbc5live to hear Martin Baxter discuss the key challenges facing Andy Burnham as he heads to No.10 ⬇️
bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m002yx…
Electoral Calculus retweeted
Could London's political map really look like this after the next general election? standard.co.uk/news/politics…
Our new MRP poll for @PLMRLtd shows Labour in first place with a Burnham boost on 217, ahead of the Conservatives on 151 and Reform on 127. Restore Britain is also included.
If a general election were held now, our numbers point to a hung parliament.
electoralcalculus.co.uk/blog…
Most polling in June was done before Keir Starmer resigned as PM. Our poll-of-polls has #Labour and #Conservatives up a bit this month, the #Greens down and if an election happened now #Reform would be the largest party but well short of a majority Details:electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
Electoral Calculus retweeted
Martin Baxter assesses Andy Burnham's popularity amongst voters. He looks at a poll that says he would put Labour three points ahead of Reform if he became the new Labour leader.
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Our latest poll-of-polls shows #Greens have lost 1pc of support since April. If a general election happened now, #Reform would be the largest party but short of a majority and would need #Conservative support. #Labour would be third largest party.
Details:electoralcalculus.co.uk/pred…
Our latest newsletter looks at the political drama of the week, with Andy Burnham's possible return to Westminster via Makerfield.
Plus, Politics By Numbers digs into the seven political tribes shaping Britain.
Watch➡️youtube.com/@ElectCalc
ALT Makerfield LSDM