Saga of finacial markets - “It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so.”

Joined April 2011
MarketSaga retweeted
减肥人真得学起来
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真正的买点,痛到你不敢重仓 
真正的卖点,爽到你不愿卖出
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China just restricted the machines America uses to build tunnels, mines, and drones. Beijing already controls large parts of the global market for this equipment. The new rules, starting next month, turn that dominance into a tool that can delay or deny what US projects still need. First the materials. Then the magnets. Now the machines themselves. The leverage keeps expanding.
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MarketSaga retweeted
特斯拉有什么脸吹牛逼? 难道方向盘就可以断吗? 难道摆臂就可以断吗? 难道安全带就可以断吗? 这些都是用户正常驾驶发生的断裂, 人民日报,北京日报,新疆发布,浙江宣传有在关心特斯拉的消费者吗? 国内这些媒体,呵呵, 望洋人之长则喜,闻洋人之短则急, 观国人之短则辱,见国人之长则疑。
战争结束了,兰博。 特斯拉中国官方和其高管陶琳,今天先后发布没有速成车推文,并提及全球有 1000 万车主。
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Something very strange is happening in financial markets. US inflation: 3.7%. Oil: $110 a barrel. Nasdaq: down 5.5% last week. Yet investors are buying US government bonds, pushing yields LOWER. Think about what that means. Inflation is still a problem, but markets are increasingly worried about what keeping interest rates this high could do to businesses, jobs and the wider economy. And we're heading into 2027 with enormous government debts, expensive energy, geopolitical tensions and an AI investment boom that's consuming extraordinary amounts of money. I've spent 18 years watching these cycles. What concerns me isn't one bad economic number. It's how many different pressures are building at the same time. The next major market opportunity could come from understanding which of those pressures breaks first.
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MarketSaga retweeted
芯片的 DeepSeek 时刻要来了?
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Market performance since the first serious MSCI warning for a downgrade, 🇮🇩 Indonesia -46% 🇹🇷 Turkey -21%
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MarketSaga retweeted
🚨 THE WORLD'S BIGGEST BANKS ARE CRASHING, AND IT IS A MAJOR WARNING FOR STOCK MARKETS. Banking stocks across the U.S., Europe, and Asia have fallen 15% to 30% from their recent highs, while major stock indexes are still trading near record levels. In the U.S., the KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has fallen roughly 13% from its August peak. It is also coming off its longest weekly losing streak since the 2008 financial crisis. Look at the damage among America's largest banks: • Bank of America: -24.5% • Capital One: -25% • Goldman Sachs: -24% • Morgan Stanley: -19% • Wells Fargo: -18.5% • Citigroup: -15% • JPMorgan: -11% And the situation in Europe is even worse. • Société Générale: -27% • BNP Paribas: -24% • Barclays: -23% • Deutsche Bank: -21% In Asia, the selling has been just as aggressive. • Bank Central Asia: -29.6% • Shinhan Financial: -20.7% • KB Financial: -20.6% • HDFC Bank: -19.1% • Commonwealth Bank: -18.7% Turkey's banking index is also down around 24.5% from its 52-week high. This is happening while global bond yields are rising, borrowing costs remain elevated, and economic growth is weakening. In the U.S. alone, banks are sitting on $326.7 BILLION in unrealized securities losses. Higher bond yields could put even more pressure on the value of their bond holdings. Meanwhile, American households are carrying trillions in mortgages, credit card debt, auto loans, and other obligations. If AI starts replacing workers on a large scale, millions of borrowers could struggle to make their payments. Even a 5% loss on an estimated $10 trillion in debt owed by Americans under 50 would mean $500 BILLION in potential losses. That is equivalent to nearly 20% of the U.S. banking system's reported $2.6 trillion in capital. And history gives us another reason to be concerned. Before the 2000, 2008, and 2020 stock market crashes, the KBW Bank Index peaked months before the S&P 500. Banking stocks started weakening while the broader market was still holding up. Now a similar divergence is appearing, with major banks falling sharply while the S&P 500 remains near its highs. If the banking selloff continues and credit conditions deteriorate, the pressure could spread to business lending, consumer spending, corporate earnings, and eventually the broader stock market. The biggest warning right now is that banks across multiple major economies are already in correction territory, while the rest of the market is still behaving as if nothing is wrong.
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🇨🇳PBOC to bolster financial support for AI industry development PBOC'S PAN said rapid global AI development is having deep effects on productivity, investment, employment, income distribution and financial stability. The bank will closely monitor and assess AI's macro impact, provide financial support for AI industry development and prudently advance AI applications in the financial sector. (mktnews.com/flashDetail.html…)
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九部门发文 主线清晰 央行也参加了 再贷款政策会配合 此文深度有效
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证监会盘后出来大放卫星了。。。就看明天市场买账不买账了。
太牛逼了,每天开盘就是新低,然后低开低走,周而复始。 这市场到底有没有正常人了啊。
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央行终于官宣货币政策利率换锚,潘功胜:“将研究择机把央行公开市场主要操作品种的期限切换为隔夜,公开市场隔夜回购利率将相应成为主要政策利率” 今年年中的陆家嘴论坛,我也就认为可能会“官宣”,但当时没有官宣,这次终于官宣了。
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这次出的这个工具看出来上面是真用心了,防止类似08年和15年的股灾再次出现
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MarketSaga retweeted
Signs are emerging that a record 10-week losing streak for China’s benchmark stock index has prompted state-backed funds to step up their presence in the market. bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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MarketSaga retweeted
China’s home prices fell at a slower pace in September, spurring hopes that the battered real estate market is turning a corner as the latest stimulus takes effect bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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纳指40年涨了无数倍,但有多少人,真正拿到了这份收益? 答案可能很扎心:很多人不是没买对,而是倒在了黎明之前。 翻开纳指100过去40年的历史,年内回撤几乎从未缺席。跌20%不稀奇,跌30%也不罕见,极端时期甚至能跌去一半以上。 可40年后回头看,纳指依然不断刷新历史高点。 市场最残酷的地方就在这里:上涨是长期趋势,下跌却是眼前的折磨。 人人都羡慕纳指长期的高回报,却很少有人愿意承受途中一次又一次的暴跌。 真正决定收益的,不只是你买了什么,更是市场崩溃时,你能不能留在牌桌上。 当然,熬不是死扛。指数可以靠优胜劣汰不断创新高,但个股未必能活到下一轮牛市。 投资最难的,从来不是看对未来,而是扛住通往未来的过程。
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