
NFL Projections Lead @EstablishTheRun
Joined September 2010
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Deshaun Watson, fresh off a twice-torn achilles, currently leads all QBs with 12 designed rush attempts on the season.
Giga-freak Josh Allen is in second with 9
Mark Dankenbring retweeted
Is now a good time to tell you that Shedeur Sanders had a higher yards per pass attempt last season than Bo Nix?
I don't like to be criticial but it's a genuine shame how poor of an NFL broadcasting duo Al Michaels & Kirk Herbstreit are at this point.
Michaels can't see the field and lacks any meaningful insight or enthusiasm.
Herbstreit is out of his element calling his secondary sport and doesn't have the NFL knowledge you want from an analyst.
It's insane to me these two get 17 prime time games a season. It's a slap in the face to NFL fans.
New Rest of Season Top 150 show is live!
Covered this week's biggest movers:
- Ashton Jeanty
- Jaylen Waddle
- Rhamondre Stevenson
- Germie Bernard
- Isaiah Likely & Malik Nabers
- Woody Marks
and RB timeshares for Steelers, Bengals, Seahawks, & Vikings
with @adamlevitan , @notJDaigle , @JackMiller02
youtube.com/watch?v=u9fVW4gg…
Mark Dankenbring retweeted
Our Week 5 Team-By-Team Review Podcast is posted.
@adamlevitan & I recap every team’s game with lookahead thoughts on the upcoming week.
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcas…
The 49ers easily lead the entire NFL in 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE) usage since the start of 2025.
From the start of 2025 through Week 4 of 2026, the 49ers used 21 personnel on 38% of their offensive snaps.
The other 31 NFL teams averaged 6% in that span.
Kyle Juszczyk is the sole reason for the massive gap here with him being a massive piece in Kyle Shanahan's scheme.
Juszczyk missed Week 5 against the Seahawks, his first missed game since 2019.
How did the 49ers respond? They ran ZERO plays out of 21 personnel.
Instead, they set season-highs in 11, 12, and 13 personnel usage.
43% is their highest 12 personnel usage since Week 8 of the 2022 season.
There's not really a glaring fantasy takeaway here, I was mostly curious how SF would adjust their personnel groupings w/o Juszczyk and we got our answer, at least for one game.
I've become increasingly interested in personnel usage since the Rams' 13 personnel trend took the league by storm and with more offenses trying to dictate what defensive structure the opposing team will trot out.
Will be trying to post more interesting personnel usage takeaways as we get further into the season.
(data via @SportsInfo_SIS)
Deshaun Watson took 8 sacks in Week 5 against the Jets. He now has a 10.42% sack rate in 24 career starts for the Browns.
Highest sack rate by QBs over the last 10 seasons (min 20 starts with team):
1. Justin Fields (CHI) - 10.83%
2. Will Levis (TEN) - 10.57%
3. Deshaun Watson (CLE) - 10.42%
4. Zach Wilson (NYJ) - 9.83%
5. Russell Wilson (DEN) - 9.18%
6. Marcus Mariota (TEN) - 8.51%
7. Deshaun Watson (HOU) - 8.32%
8. Cam Ward (TEN) - 8.23%
9. Daniel Jones (NYG) - 8.07%
10. Ryan Tannehill (TEN) - 7.98%
Wild to see Watson's name on here twice with multiple franchises and FOUR Titans QBs. FOUR!!!
Sacks are a QB stat.... unless you play for the Titans?
Chase Brown fumbled near the goal line with 7:03 remaining in the 2nd quarter of Week 5.
Before fumble:
- Brown 21 snaps, 6 carries, 12 routes, 3 tgts
- Perine 10 snaps, 4 carries, 3 routes, 1 tgt
After fumble:
- Brown 15 snaps, 7 carries, 8 routes, 1 tgt
- Perine 20 snaps, 10 carries, 8 routes, 1 tgt
Not sure I've ever had Derrick Henry on a fantasy team until this season. Finally followed @evansilva's First Commandment and it's paid immediate dividends
#ThouShallNotFadeTheBigDog
One aspect of QB play I've become more interested in for fantasy research over the years is the percentage of drop backs that lead to targets for their pass catchers.
Ideally we want to target pass catchers on offenses where:
1. The QB drops back a lot
2. The QB converts a high number of their drop backs into usable pass attempts
Projecting team-level pass rate is a bit of a different exercise, so let's just focus on the QB's individual stats for now.
Which QBs have turned the highest % of drop backs into targets for their pass catchers in 2026?
Highest:
1. Jordan Love - 92.35%
2. Kirk Cousins - 91.67%
3. Joe Burrow - 91.18%
4. Jared Goff - 90.29%
5. Jacoby Brissett - 90.23%
6. Matthew Stafford - 90.00%
7. Dak Prescott - 88.52%
8. Brock Purdy - 87.82%
9. Aaron Rodgers - 87.50%
10. Tyler Shough - 87.44%
Lowest (rank among 31 qualifying QBs):
24. Malik Willis - 80.50%
25. Drake Maye - 79.89%
26. Deshaun Watson - 79.78%
27. Jalen Hurts - 78.77%
28. Baker Mayfield - 77.97%
29. Justin Herbert - 77.84%
30. Kyler Murray - 73.77%
31. Jayden Daniels - 66.33%
(minimum 3 starts; calculated by using total drop backs and removing sacks, scrambles, throwaways. data via @SportsInfo_SIS)
Alright it might be time to turn off injuries for the Chargers. This is getting out of hand
Think this Broncos offense might be more embarrassing than the ending of Giants/Commanders.
Who else on the staff can call plays?
Do the Jaguars operate with a shorter play clock than the rest of the league or what's going on here???
Who needs Ladd McConkey, Joe Alt, Rashawn Slater, Derwin James, Tyler Biadasz, Quentin Johnson, David Njoku (I could go on) when you have "fullback/defensive lineman Scott Matlock" coming back to save your season
Week 5 injury reports 🤕
Sunday #FantasyFootball injuries:
QUESTIONABLE
* Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Colbie Young
* Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison
* Ashton Jeanty
* Caleb Williams
* Ladd McConkey, Charlie Kolar
* Zay Flowers
* Rhamondre Stevenson
* Rico Dowdle
* Terry McLaurin
* Carnell Tate
* Alvin Kamara
* George Holani
* Keenan Allen, Darius Slayton
* Jaylen Wright
IN
* Jayden Daniels, Rachaad White
* Chris Olave, Noah Fant
* Jeremiyah Love
* Dallas Goedert
* Mason Taylor
OUT
* Saquon Barkley, Tank Bigsby, DeVonta Smith, Hollywood Brown
* Lamar Jackson
* Breece Hall, AD Mitchell
* Kyle Monangai
* Stefon Diggs
* Quentin Johnston
* Michael Pittman
* Pat Bryant
* Caleb Douglas
* Jordan Mason
* Zach Charbonnet
* Jalen Nailor
* Mack Hollins
* Chris Brooks
Fully expected Tee Higgins to miss this week after starting DNP-DNP and Bengals' bye in Week 6. Extremely rare to follow up two DNPs with a full practice.
Thankful this is a 1pm ET kickoff so we'll have official status leading into early lock.
Official injury report for the #Bengals. Questionables galore.
Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Bryan Cook, Swayze Bozeman, Colbie Young.
Inactives will be important on Sunday.
Jake Ferguson has been one of the least efficient per-target players in the NFL since the start of the 2024 season.
He's seen 209 targets since 2024. Among 43 players with 200+ targets in that span, he's dead last with 5.7 yards per target.
Tight ends typically have lower yds/tgt on average than WRs, and only 7 tight ends have 200+ tgts in that span, so I'll admit it's a little unfair to compare him to the whole group of 200+ target earners.
Expanding the search to only tight ends with 100+ targets since the start of 2024, Ferguson ranks 33rd out of 34 qualifying players. Only David Njoku (5.65 yds/tgt) has been less efficient.
Ferguson's target share has dipped to 11.2% this season after finishing at 16.4% and 16.6% in 2025 & 2024.
Mark Dankenbring retweeted
New show up.
Discussed the ROS outlooks for ...
* the Eagles
* Washington's passing offense
* Jeremiyah Love
* Chargers backfield
* Saints WRs
and more, with @adamlevitan, @MarkDank, and @JackMiller02:
youtu.be/2T3K8o8OxV0?si=R6Gf…









