crypto, AI, internet culture & other poor decisions early until proven otherwise

Joined May 2021
me: analyze this song claude: first of all…language
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built a little radar to find ai/crypto conversations worth joining first finding: most accounts are just asking for your sol address
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one year since 10/10 btc was $121.7k that morning. it's $82.8k today solana defi had $12.6B in it. now $6.2B perspective is a gift
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MacUhtack retweeted
Only like 10 coins in all of crypto are higher today than the morning of 10/10. If you're still here and doing okay, give yourself a pat on the back.
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uptober was a typo
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ETFs let 12.9 days of new bitcoin walk out the door in one session Thailand opens a new one next week Don't sell your coins for cheap.
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data: @FarsideUK (oct 7 session: −$484.9M net, ibit −$207.7M) + @coingecko, btc at the us close 5,814 btc ÷ 450 mined per day = 12.9 days of new supply biggest daily outflow since june 25 (@SoSoValueCrypto via @CoinDesk ) thailand: spot btc/eth etf rules for the SET finalized oct 8, trading can start oct 16, no fund approved yet (coinpedia , citing the thai sec)
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the slumlords are eating well
top 25% wallets on pumpfun earned ~$49 top 10% wallets earned ~$500 but the top 25 pumpfun memecoin deployers? they made $128M the launchpad itself? $65M in revenue last 30 days now you know who's making the most money in the trenches it's not you, you're just providing them exit liquidity
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my goal is get more sophisticated in 1 area each week and more simple in another.
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crypto time horizons short term: until it goes up long term: since it went down
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imagine getting all your crypto news like this
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Me: make XYZ. I don't care how you do it. Opus 5.5:🎩🪄🐇 Me: Not like that
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found out abstract was shutting down at a party last night
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data: @CoinDesk + @DefiLlama. everyone in this is AI (seedance + elevenlabs).
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MacUhtack retweeted
thinking back on all the code i wrote by hand. what a dumbass
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I don’t know if this timeline ends up being right, but I think the broader point is worth taking seriously. AI is going to force us to revisit a lot of assumptions we’ve treated as settled for a long time.
Today I call upon the blockchain industry to calmly begin planning for "bunker mode". My personal recommendation is to set in motion a controlled mass migration of assets to fresh addresses, i.e. addresses whose pubkeys remain hidden behind a hash. Holders, starting with large and sophisticated ones, should consider moving the bulk of their funds to addresses that have never signed a transaction. And when they do sign one, they should also move remaining funds to a new address (possibly generated from the same seed phrase). Don't rush. While I believe there is cause for action a rushed migration would do more harm than good. Don't panic either. Moving assets to protected addresses is a simple, preventative step which does not require new cryptography or new wallets. IMO it is now reasonable to brace for the possibility that ECDSA breaks before qday, in the worst case in months not years. By "break" I mean fast private key recovery (e.g. in one week) on available hardware (e.g. a large GPU cluster). Recent days have been humbling for human mathematical intuition. Long-held, unquestioned hypotheses have fallen. This includes the n log(n) bound for integer multiplication and the 3SUM conjecture. In hindsight, May's unexpected disproof of the Erdős unit distance conjecture was our warning shot. Yesterday's OpenAI drop made it clear that mathematical superintelligence is upon us. They say there are weeks where decades happen. We are about to live through weeks where centuries of mathematical progress happen. Could our magic 64-byte ECDSA signatures be too good to be true? Was it just security through obscurity all this time? Elliptic curves feel especially vulnerable to superintelligence. Curves carry rich structure, with room for fancy tricks like Schoof, Frobenius, pairings. (By contrast, hashes are designed to minimise algebraic structure.) Separately, as Ewin Tang can attest, an efficient quantum algorithm sometimes foreshadows an efficient classical one. We should be open to the possibility of a classical counterpart to Shor that breaks elliptic curves and RSA at once. Also noteworthy is the striking under-representation of cryptographic breakthroughs among the 722 mathematical results OpenAI published. I've witnessed first-hand the US government censoring academic quantum cryptanalysis results. Backroom interventionism is my base case. I urge large, sophisticated actors to lead by example. Project11's "risq list" (bitcoin-risq-list.projecteleven[.]com) is a great tracker of exposed BTC pubkeys. Binance, Bitbank, Robinhood, Bitfinex, and Tether have an opportunity to harden their cold storage. Next month I'll address institutions in London in a live Q&A (forum.ethereuminstitutional[.]org/london-2026). Again, please do not rush. Wallets holding under 50 BTC enjoy partial cover from "Satoshi's shield", i.e. his 20K exposed addresses that hold 50 BTC each. Load-bearing signers like oracles and L2 security councils should consider rotating ECDSA pubkeys with every signed message and/or multi-signing with a hash-based schemes like SPHINCS. Exiting bunker mode safely will require post-AI cryptography. My inclination is to go all-in on hash-based cryptography and avoid structured mathematical assumptions entirely, whether from curves, lattices, or isogenies. A single battle-tested hash (e.g. from the SHA or BLAKE families) yields plausible post-AI security. The Ethereum roadmap on strawmap[.]org fully embraces hash-based cryptography with end-to-end formal verification as a response to the quantum threat. Those timelines must now be revisited and accelerated in light of mathematical superintelligence. I'll be pushing for maximum defensive acceleration.
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MacUhtack retweeted
This year Bitcoin got hit with Iran, Ukraine, a rate hike, the Clarity Act failing and bond yields at a 20-year high. None of it broke Bitcoin's structure. Price is still above the bull market support band. It'd take news as big as COVID to break it. I'm still bullish
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solana:MukLDtJ8Cx9DxLbeyLRSWPSposTMWuwHANbuaudpump has claimed $4.08M in fees in 39 days. Most of it went right back out. Holders, desks, buybacks, the burn. I've been in since day one. I've watched two twitter takedowns and a ddos on the site today, and the dev just keeps shipping. A new product or update almost every day, no matter what the price is doing. I honestly don't know where this ends up, but fees just keep climbing.
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data via @otcdotcash's own revenue page (otcdesks.cash/revenue): $4.08M claimed, $2.77M to holders (68%), self-reported. Burn 326M $OTC = 32.6% of supply, on-chain (solana rpc). as of oct 6.
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Digging into this today. DAOs are my weakness.
gPaper ! Public form is live ! Apply here for a whitelist spot 👇🏻 daos.world/launch/paperdao/a…
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